Author: Techub News Written by: Babywhale, Techub News

This morning, Bitcoin once again hit the $80,000 mark, and at the time of writing it had rebounded to above $82,500. The weekend's decline also left a huge gap on CME's Bitcoin futures chart like last week.

According to Coinglass data, as of the time of writing, the entire network has been liquidated by about US$621 million in the past 24 hours. Among them, the Bitcoin contract was liquidated by about US$240 million, the Ethereum contract was liquidated by US$108 million, the XRP contract was liquidated by about US$30 million, and the SOL contract was liquidated by more than US$26 million. The largest single liquidation occurred at Binance, with more than $30 million being liquidated.

Reservations Below expectations, macro uncertainty has risen rapidly

The Bitcoin reserve plan, which was previously given high expectations, has brought almost no good news in the near future.

On the one hand, the Bitcoin Reserve Act signed by Trump clearly states that the bulk of the reserve comes from about 200,000 Bitcoins held by the United States before. For additional Bitcoin purchases, you need to adopt a "budget-neutral" approach, that is, even if you purchase additional Bitcoins, it cannot increase the fiscal burden. There are speculations that they may choose to sell some assets to purchase additional Bitcoin.

Standard Chartered Bank said the United States could choose to sell gold to buy Bitcoin, but then "crypto tsar" David Sacks denied it. In my opinion, purchasing additional Bitcoin is a very difficult operation for the United States. For those who cut off a large number of useless budgets in the opening ceremony as a savior, it is difficult to convince people to purchase risky assets that can fluctuate more than 10% in one day. Bitcoin is well known to us in the industry, but not everyone recognizes crypto assets for the general public.

In addition to the fact that Bitcoin reserves at the level are not as crazy as Strategy as many optimistic people predict, the advancement of the state's Bitcoin reserve bill has also undergone frequent changes.

As of now, several states, including Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming, have rejected the Bitcoin Reserves Act. Although Utah passed the HB 230 bill called the "Blockchain and Digital Innovation Amendment", it deleted the clause that authorized the state Treasury Secretary to invest in Bitcoin.

Of course, there are many states' relevant bills that have reached the point of being finalized, but we can also draw some conclusions from existing situations: the "glorious event of buying coins from all over the country" that many practitioners expect may not happen, and lawmakers have also kept a clear mind and using real money to buy high-risk assets is indeed difficult to convince the public in the short term.

On the macro, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs lowered their growth forecast for 2025, with the former lowering the growth forecast to 1.5% from the previous 1.9%, while the latter lowering the data from 2.2% to 1.7% and raising the probability of a recession from 15% to 20%.

In fact, Trump's efforts, including raising tariffs and reducing unnecessary expenses, must essentially contribute to the sustainable development of the United States in the long run, but in the short term, the impact of rising inflation, rising unemployment, and weakening of the dollar hegemony will inevitably be avoided. In my opinion, the current financial market is facing an extremely subtle situation: on the one hand, the increase in inflation caused by tariffs will further affect the US economy and have to force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at some point; but on the other hand, if the economy is resilient enough, a rash interest rate cut may further push up inflation.

In this way, Trump's proud "open conspiracy" may bring about an unsolvable vicious cycle, which may be the main reason why analysts predict a recession in the United States. The author has an unfounded speculation, that is, many rich classes in the world are actually seriously derailed from the lives of ordinary people, and the short-term "pain" they believe may destroy the lives of a considerable number of people at the bottom, and this mentality of "why not eat meat" is also an important source of many uncertainties.

For risky assets, the bad news of certainty is even better than uncertainty. The flying of gold, US stocks and US dollar in the past year is the most obvious sign that funds are looking for certainty. The recent decline in US stocks and US dollar means that the last safe haven for the risk market in the United States no longer has certainty, and the rise of Hong Kong stocks and A-shares also follows the same logic. But given that Bitcoin has become part of the U.S. stock market after the launch of spot ETFs,The author still needs to remind investors that at least in the first half of this year, we must prevent the tsunami caused by flapping our wings.