According to Cointelegraph, although the cryptocurrency fear and greed index on March 10 continues to show "extreme fear", a Bitcoin market simulation still predicts a bullish trend in the second half of 2025. Cryptocurrency researcher Mark Quant used Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the price of Bitcoin and provided a six-month forecast for the crypto asset. The Monte Carlo model is a computational method that simulates price predictions and evaluates risks through random sampling. It can generate a variety of possible scenarios based on variable factors such as volatility and market trends. Based on the initial price of $82,655, the study estimates that the average final price of Bitcoin by the end of September 2025 is $258,445. However, from a broader perspective, the price of Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate between $51,430 (i.e., the 5th percentile return) and $713,000 (the 95th percentile return). It is important to note, however, that the Monte Carlo model relies heavily on the geometric Brownian motion (GBM) model, which assumes that asset value follows a random path with constant drift parameters. In this analysis, Bitcoin’s inherent volatility is incorporated into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future changes. In essence, Monte Carlo analysis is as uncertain as “rolling dice.” Last week, Quant also highlighted the correlation between the total cryptocurrency market cap and the global liquidity index, indicating that the total market cap could reach a new high of more than $4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025.