Author: Viee, Biteye

Every bull market not only creates wealth, but also creates countless illusions of wealth. When the market is excited, few people can keep their heads sober and elegantly "escape". In the face of a market with sharp rise and fall, how to leave the market in a timely manner near the high point and avoid the shrinkage of assets caused by deep pullbacks requires us to comprehensively analyze multiple market indicators.

Biteye analyzed 15 commonly used top-escape indicators and found that one-fifth of the indicators have reached the top-escape range in 24 years, namely: Bits Coin Rhodl ratio, USDT current financial management, altcoin seasonal index. In this way, how should we deal with the subsequent development of the market?

1. Indicator introduction 1. AHR999 Coin hoarding indicator

This indicator is made by Weibo user ahr999 Create to assist Bitcoin fixed investment users to make investment decisions based on opportunity-based strategies. This indicator implies the yield of Bitcoin’s short-term fixed investment and the deviation between Bitcoin price and expected valuation.

Indicator range:

>4: It is recommended to significantly reduce positions

1.2-4: Watch the area and stay vigilant

0.45-1.2: Fixed investment area, you can gradually build positions

<0.45: Strong bottom-buying area

Current status: The index value is 1.21, has not reached the top yet, is in It is recommended to be cautious when waiting and watching.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/ahr999

2. AHR999 Escape indicator

AHR999 The escape top indicator is a sister indicator of the coin hoarding indicator, which is specifically used to identify the top area of ​​the market. This indicator determines whether the market is overheated by observing the degree of deviation of the price from the long-term trend line. It was given at the top of both big bull markets in 2017 and 2021Accurate early warning signals are an important tool to avoid chasing highs.

Indicator interval:

<=0.45: Severe overheating, consider escaping the top

Current status: The indicator value is 2.48, and no peak signal appears in this cycle.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/ahr999-escape

3. Pi cycle top indicators

Pi cycle top indicator predicts potential market top by comparing the relationship between the 111 daily moving average and the 350 daily moving average. Historically, when the moving average crosses, the price of Bitcoin is usually close to the top of the cycle, indicating a potential market reversal.

Signal characteristics:

Two lines cross: top signal triggers

Quick divergence: bearish in the future

Grad approach: alert

Current status: The two moving averages are still far away, and there is no top signal yet. It is expected that the next cross will be in October 2025.

Link: https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-prediction/

4. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart< p style="text-align: left;">Rainbow Chart is an intuitive long-term valuation model that divides the price range of Bitcoin into 9 different color bands. The model is based on logarithmic regression and takes into account the long-term growth characteristics and cyclical characteristics of Bitcoin. Over the past several market cycles, the rainbow chart has shown good guidance, especially in identifying extreme areas.

Indicator range:

Red: bubble area, sell signal

< p style="text-align: left;">YellowColor: overheating zone, stay alert

Green: healthy zone, holding range

Blue Color: Value area, buying opportunity

Current status: The price is in the green area, indicating that the valuation is relatively reasonable and there is no top signal.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/bitcoin-rainbow-chart

5. Bitcoin terminal price The terminal price is the transfer price multiplied by 21. The price transferred requires the number of days of coins it has been destroyed by the existing Bitcoin supply and its time in circulation. This indicator can effectively filter out market speculation factors and reflect the true value of the Bitcoin network.

Signal characteristics: The closer the price of Bitcoin is to the red line, the closer the market is to the top.

Current status: not yet reached the top

Link: https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro. com/charts/terminal-price/

6. Bitcoin market value share

The market value share index reflects Bitcoin's dominance in the entire cryptocurrency market. This indicator is usually used to judge market cycles and capital flows, and when Bitcoin’s market value falls, it usually means that funds begin to transfer to altcoins. Historical data show that changes in Bitcoin’s market value often indicate a turning point in the entire cryptocurrency market.

Indicator range:

65%: Bitcoin strong period

40-65%: Equilibrium period

<40%: Altcoin active period

Current status: Market value accounts for about 60%, and is in a relatively balanced range.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/MarketCap

7. Bitcoin CBBI Index

CBBI(Combined Bitcoin Binary Index) is a comprehensive index that integrates multiple Technical indicators and on-chain data can better identify the conversion points of the bull and bear cycle. Its advantage is that it reduces the limitations of a single indicator through multi-dimensional data.

Indicator range: greater than 90 means that the market has reached its top.

Current status: The index value is 79, indicating that the market is slightly hot, but it has not yet reached its peak.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/cbbi-index

8. Bitcoin MVRV Z Index< p style="text-align: left;">MVRV Z index is an important on-chain analysis indicator, which judges the market cycle by comparing the degree of deviation between market value and realized value. When this indicator is too high, it means that the market value of Bitcoin is overvalued relative to its actual value, which is not conducive to the price of Bitcoin; otherwise, it is undervalued. According to past historical experience, when this indicator is at a historical high, the probability of Bitcoin price showing a downward trend increases, and you must pay attention to the risk of chasing highs.

Indicator range: greater than 5 means that the market has reached its top.

Current status: The index is 2.5, and has not yet reached the top.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/bitcoin-mvrv-zscore

9. Bitcoin Rhodl ratio

Rhodl ratio is a composite on-chain indicator. The indicator judges the potential turning point of the market by comparing the behavioral characteristics of coin holders in different periods. When the RHODL ratio begins to approach the red band, it may indicate that the market is overheated. Historically, this has been a good time for investors to take profits in each cycle.

Indicator range: When approaching the red band, it may indicate that the market is overheated. When ratio >= 10000, the market is close to the top.

Current status: The red band is not currently entered, but this indicator entered the peak range during November 2024.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/r-hodl-ratio

10. Bitcoin Mayer multiple

Bitcoin Mayer multiple (Mayer Multiple) is a technical indicator for analyzing the Bitcoin market conditions, proposed by Trace Mayer. It evaluates the market's market by comparing the current price of Bitcoin with its 200-day Moving Average (200DMA). Relative valuation level.

Indicator interval:

Meier multiple> 1: indicates the current Bitcoin price is above its 200-day moving average, and the market may be overbought.

Meyer multiple < 1: Indicates that the current Bitcoin price is below its 200-day moving average, the market may be in an oversold state.

Meyer multiple ≈ 1: indicates that the current Bitcoin price is close to its 200-day moving average, the market May be in a relatively balanced state.

In history, when the Mayer multiple exceeded 2.4, it usually indicates that the market is overheated and there may be a pullback or bear market. When the Mayer multiple is below 0.8, the market may be undervalued, which may be a good time to buy.

Current status: the index is 1.26, the market is in an overbought state , but it has not yet hit the top.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/mayer-multiple

11. ETF continuous net outflow days

This indicator tracks the flow of funds in Bitcoin ETFs, and the continuous net outflow days often reflect the confidence status of institutional investors. This is a relatively new indicator. Since the launch of the spot ETF, it has gradually attracted market attention.

Signal characteristics:

10 days: significantly bearish signal

5-10 days: Beware

<5 days: normal fluctuation

Current status: 1 consecutive net outflow , belongs to the normal market volatility range. This cycle will last up to 8 consecutive days, and there will be no 10 days.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/bitcoin-etf

12. ETF to BTC ratio

This indicator reflects the proportion of Bitcoin held by ETFs in total circulation and is used to evaluate institutional participation. This indicator can reflect the acceptance and depth of Bitcoin by traditional financial institutions.

Signal characteristics: <=3.5% is an escape indicator, which also implies that the institutional participation is low

Current status: accounting for nearly 6%, indicating that institutional participation is in a stage of benign growth.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/bitcoin-etf

13. USDT Current Financial Management

USDT Current financial management interest rate is an important indicator for measuring the cost of market capital. This indicator reflects the overall liquidity status of the cryptocurrency market.

Signal characteristics: >=29% is the escape range

Current status: Interest rate is about 6.68%, at normal level. However, during March 2024, the indicator entered the peak range, reaching 65%.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/MarginFeeChart

14. Altcoin seasonal index

This indicator is used to determine whether the market has entered an active period of altcoins. By comparing bitsThe performance of coins and major altcoins can be used to determine whether funds have begun to turn to smaller currencies with higher risks.

Indicator range:

75: Altcoin season, if it exceeds 75, it means that the market is close to Touch the top

25-75: Equilibrium period

<25: Bitcoin dominant period< /p>

Current status: The index is 41, but during December 2024, the indicator entered the peak range, reaching 88.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/alt-coin-season

15. Micro-strategy cost indicators

This indicator tracks the average Bitcoin holding cost of MicroStrategy companies as a reference benchmark for institutional investors. Since MicroStrategy is one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders, its cost line often becomes an important psychological price in the market.

Indicator range:

Current price is higher than cost: Institutional profit range

The current price is close to the cost: support level

The current price is below the cost: potential buying opportunity

Current status: The average cost of micro-strategy is about 60,000, which is within the institutional profit range.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/micro-strategy-cost

2. Summary

"The bear market makes you bankrupt, and the bull market makes you fall back into poverty." Staying rational in the market carnival and getting out of it when you are crazy is much more difficult than buying at the bottom. At present, only some indicators show signs of escape from the top, which does not mean that the entire market is definitely reaching the top. If you think the market is at risk of reaching the top, you can also consider:

Set the batch reduction point, don't expect a perfect top.

Cash profits as stablecoins or fiat currencies instead of turning Risk altcoins.

It is better to sell early at a high level than to sell late. Profit settlement is not the end, but to accumulate ammunition for the next round. /p>

Remember, every top is an opportunity for some people to create wealth, and it is also a wealth trap for most people. The opportunities given to everyone by the market are equal, But those who can seize opportunities are often those who are prepared.