Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News

Once upon a time, Zhao Changpeng's sentence "If you can't hodl, you You will not become rich" and the golden rule that is regarded as investment in the currency circle has been passed down for a while. Buy, hold and hold firmly, and then sell when you make a lot of profits to get huge profits. The HODL concept was once very popular in the circle.

Some investment institutions have obtained very generous returns through in-depth research and betting, such as the first-class position last cycle, which has been obtained hundreds or even more on MATIC and AAVE. Thousand times the profit. Various legendary wealth stories make retail investors generally believe in the powerful power of diamond hands. However, if this investment concept was quite effective in the last cycle, this concept is no longer believed in by the market, especially for players who are full of copycats.

After four years and one cycle, the market structure has undergone considerable changes. If the style cannot be adjusted in time, you often face the risk of standing guard on the top of the mountain. The market really no longer rewards diamond players?

1. Memes and AI become the main theme, and the general rise cycle no longer reaches a general rise in the past cycle of the crypto market after BTC has halved for half a year. Market funds gathered from Bitcoin, then reached a certain level and began to spread to Ethereum, followed by mainstream altcoins, and finally, small-cap coupons and meme coins were scattered, and a typical bull market cycle ended here.

This cycle has advanced the first wave of upward due to the positive events of Bitcoin spot ETFs. After BTC ushered in its highlight moment, the crypto market will last for a long time. In silence. It was difficult to wait until the rise in the Q4 quarter of 2024, but it seemed quite short-lived.

If you embraced popular assets such as Bitcoin, SOL, Dogecoin earlier this cycle, then the diamond hands have made great returns. But if the altcoins you choose are not popular in the market, such as re-pled, inscriptions, games, NFTs and other tracks, then the book returns that come are likely to be "terrible".

Recently, Binance, which has been criticized by the market, has launched new coins, and has often reached its peak when it goes online, and then it has declined all the way. If the project quality is slightly better and has a hot topic, it may usher in a period of upward trend. If the project without popularity and is unblocked, the buying price will weaken and continue to set new historical lows. If the diamond player unfortunately chooses an unpopular trackIf you keep holding on to the unpopular currency, you will suffer huge losses.

In addition, compared with DeFi and NFT, which were more popular in the previous cycle, there has been no real innovation that can compare with one of the previous cycles. , market funds have been stagnant on Bitcoin, memes and AI concept coins for a long time.

The following figure clearly shows that the proportion of Bitcoin's market value fell sharply in 2017 and 2021, because of the general rise in counterfeits. As time comes, Bitcoin's market value has begun to rise all the way, from 38% to over 60% at one point. In contrast, Ethereum is troubled by multiple factors, and its market value share has been declining since the beginning of 2023.

In history, it is difficult to see the so-called general market value in Bitcoin. The rise in the copycat season.

Today, the market seems to reward diamond players who hold very few coins such as Bitcoin.

2. The performance of mainstream counterfeits is not as good as expected.

The difficulty of this round of counterfeit market is no longer comparable to that of the previous cycle. L1 in the previous cycle is as an example. Calculate the lowest point after Binance online, the highest return of DOT is more than 20 times, NEAR is nearly 40 times, AVAX is more than 40 times, SOL is more than 250 times, UNI in the DeFi field also has more than 20 times . The wealth effect in the industry is very significant.

It is worth mentioning that after the above-mentioned tokens with rich returns hit a record high, they all fell to the bottom range after half a year or even a year.

In infrastructure L1 in this cycle, except for SOL/SUI, which performed poorly, the rest. In L2, OP recorded a maximum return of 10 times, while ARB recorded a maximum return of 3 times. Both fell to the bottom range in 5 months after hitting a new high, with ARB even falling from an all-time high of $2.42 to a record low of $0.34. Stable coins such as USUAL/ENA have recorded considerable returns, but from the bottom, they are all less than 10 times.

Some projects sought after by VC capital have performed poorly, with EIGEN having a maximum return of 2 times, and now it has made historyNew low. After re-staking ETHFI and RENZO, they even started a new low mode after they were launched on Binance. IO has a maximum return of 2 times, also hitting a record low.

After more and more players are no longer willing to take over high-valuation VC coins, market participation will be discounted regardless of new or old projects.

In addition, data from CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko show that there are currently more than 20,000 altcoins (excluding low-market memes), which are 2 in 2021. -3 times as much. The wide variety of tokens and the prosperity of memes will inevitably have an impact on the attention of mainstream copycats, and the returns will also be relatively small.

3. MEME The market is fast and the intensity is high.

The highly anticipated VC coins in previous cycles are no longer a popular item. After market players could not find the difficult wealth effect on CEX, they chose to nuggets on the chain.

Solana The trend of upward turmoil in the industry is sweeping. It is undeniable that the wealth effect of memes such as WIF/BOME/TRUMP has attracted great attention from the market, but if you choose a diamond player to cash out and leave the market so far, the profit of the drawdown will be several times.

WIF has risen to around $4.8 since its launch in Binance, and has now fallen to $0.8. BOME has been up to $0.029 since its launch in Binance, and now it is priced at $0.002. Although TRUMP brings wealth effects to some on-chain players, if you do not choose to take profit and leave the market at the peak of US$70, then TRUMP will fall to a minimum of US$16 in just about one week.

MEME seems fair, but in fact it is not small. The pace of growth and fall of market targets is getting faster and faster, and participants are easily trapped if they run slowly if they are not careful.

Taking the AI-type meme GOAT as an example, on October 23, 2024, trader Nachi tweeted that "has obtained 4% of the total GOAT supply. This will be the best deal for this cycle," when the GOAT coin price was around USD 0.5. On December 12, Nachi still stated that he held GOAT, and the GOAT currency price was US$0.84. Since then, the form has suddenly dropped, and the wind has been snatched away by ACTThe price of the currency fell below $0.1 at one time, while the GOAT's historical highest price was once at $1.37 at one time.

Moonshot, which is famous for the above meme coins, is a study of the tokens launched on the Moonshot platform from November 2024 to January 2025. sample. Among the 116 online tokens, only 17 are currently higher than their online prices, with a proportion of less than 15%. Most projects are currently in a downward state, with the decline accounting for more than 85%.

Behind the real and cold data, telling the market players that they can choose the best target, It is not easy to get high returns and leave the market at low cost. It is normal for MEME to fall by more than 80% or even return to zero.

MEME's fast pace and high intensity have also spread to some counterfeit markets where liquidity is already at stake. Those exchange counterfeits with low narrative ceilings, no popularity and high valuations have ushered in "dark moments".

4. What to do?

From the perspective of the big cycle, the market has increasingly demanded diamond players. First of all, you need to judge market sentiment and the top take-profit range. If you fail to sell it incorrectly, all profits may eventually disappear. Secondly, you need to carefully select the targets, and you need to be very careful about which targets worthy of diamond hands. Once you choose the wrong target track, even if the bull market comes again, it may have nothing to do with you.

The meme coin track is generally not allowed to be a diamond player.

Cashing out in time and leaving the scene to improve your life is also one of the better ways. Reducing positions will help reduce the pressure on subsequent positions. Once a significant drawdown occurs, the realized profits can ensure that there are still opportunities for funds to capture in the future.