Author: Austin Weiler, Messari Research Analyst; Compiler: 0xjs@金财经

Polymarket is one of the darlings in the cryptocurrency field in 2024. It initially attracted attention with a unique value proposition, offering users the ability to profit from various market predictions – a product previously mostly associated with sports betting. This differentiating factor enables users to access and profit from forecasts in a variety of markets including entertainment, business, and science.

However, the US election is a major event that everyone wants to predict and profit from. That's not limited to results, but the margin of victory in specific states, whether Biden will be replaced, what Trump will say at his next rally and more. The hype surrounding the election helped Polymarket’s monthly trading volume surge 42x between January and October 2024.

While this unprecedented growth is impressive, many believe that Polymarket’s success is election-driven and predict that its usefulness will eventually decline after the election. Now, nearly a month later, market volume and unique user metrics on Polymarket suggest it can and will remain relevant in the long term.

As expected, Polymarket gained significant momentum in the month leading up to the election. During this 30-day period (October 6 to November 5), Polymarket’s daily trading volume hit an all-time high, with an average daily trading volume of $103 million.

After the election, it is generally believed that trading volume will fall back, as retail investors mainly focus on markets related to the US election. Indeed, average daily trading volume fell to $58 million between November 6 and November 30, a 44% drop from the peak of the 30-day rolling average.

Although this drop is significant, if we narrow the scope further, the result is not as large as it seems. Trading volume in non-U.S. election-related markets totaled $1.6 billion in November.

This is higher than the volume in any single month from January to September 2024. While this short-term outlook doesn't guarantee survival, it's a positive preliminary indicator that Polymarket has sufficient product-market fit to sustain future growth.

To maintain this momentum, Polymarket must continue to improve its product, especially in the absence of a major predictive event like the U.S. election. Additionally, the prediction markets space is likely to attract more competition, including both new entrants and existing players. To ensure sustainable growth, Polymarket should focus on:

Providing users with more features, including co-betting and cross-market co-betting (for example, combining event predictions with sports events).

Emphasis on unique features that differentiate it from competitors (Web2 and Web3), such as financialization of predictions.

Explore other blockchain products beyond Polygon.

Continue to improve their user experience to appeal to a wider audience.

Polymarket’s journey is far from over, and while the road ahead is challenging, signs point to resilience and adaptability.