Polymarket predicts a 58% chance that Trump will create a Bitcoin reserve within 100 days of taking office
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Golden Finance reported that according to Polymarket data, the Yes probability on the platform regarding whether Trump will create a Bitcoin reserve within 100 days of taking office surged to 58%, compared with only 43% for the same period yesterday.
In addition, the market expects a 42% probability that Trump will sign more than 40 executive orders on the first day; Kalshi's implicit market expectation is that Trump will sign 40.4 executive orders on the first day of taking office. Among them, immigration, tariffs, diplomacy, and energy are expected to be the intensive first areas of Trump’s policies on the day of his inauguration.
In addition, the market generally expects that Trump’s presidential executive powers will be greatly strengthened in his second term. Kalshi showed that the market expects a 77% probability of Trump declaring a national emergency within the 100-day new policy.