Author: Liu Jiaolian

The overnight rebound of BTC failed, and the bulls failed to hold 95k, and it was still at 95k in the morning 94k first line standby. The 30-day line has been bent, and the upward trend has been interrupted.

Yesterday, the central government announced that it has decided to temporarily suspend the purchase of government bonds in the open market.

The one-year China bond yield has dropped as early as Christmas Eve in December 2024 It has begun to bottom out.

Now the 10-year China Bond yield has also shown a bottom trend.

Jiao Lian said that the bond yield is inversely proportional to its price.

Yields have bottomed out, or bottomed out, indicating that bond prices are falling.

Why it fell is easy to understand. Without a big buyer, the price will naturally fall back to a new equilibrium price based on market supply and demand.

Not long ago, in the Jiaolian 2024.8.31 article "The Wonderful Correlation between Long-term Bond Yields and BTC", we introduced the ten-year China Bond and BTC bull market in the past The same frequency resonance in the three BTC bull market cycles.

When did BTC make a decisive breakthrough on the right side? Probably October 2024. Let’s look back at the speculation in Jiaolian’s 2024.10.17 article “Big Breakthrough: Another Conjecture on the Inverse Power Law Growth of BTC”: “This fundamental weekly K-line opened on October 14 has a high chance of becoming the The decisive upward breakthrough of the downward channel built since then will be seen more clearly if you zoom out a little further. At present, we may be on the eve of the start of this fast bull cycle. 》

Looking back now, I can see it very clearly. It was indeed a decisive breakthrough on the right. The two blue straight lines pinching the passage in the picture are still the two straight lines originally drawn by the teaching chain and have not changed. Using this as a reference can also clearly see the shape of the breakthrough on the right.

The last time it bottomed out before breaking through from the right side of BTC was roughly in September 2024 From January to December, when the one-year Chinese bond yield bottomed out, there was a gap of about 3 months.

Financial issues always bring us many myths. Or, at least, it gave the teaching chain a lot of food for thought.

Are mainstream financial propositions really so justified? Jiao Lian believes that this is not necessarily the case.

For example, lower Treasury yields indicate that the economy is at risk of deflation. However, the lower yields are obviously the market's pursuit of government bonds. Doesn't this indicate the market's recognition of credit?

Why do you say that? It is because of a common belief that capital will pursue government bonds when there are no better investment opportunities in the market.

But isn’t the entire economic development jointly created by the market entities?

Then if the yield on government bonds goes higher, it is a sign of economic activity.

This dualistic concept really pits the market against the market. This oppositional dualism is not suitable for China's characteristic economy, because it is a complementary model in which the state-owned economy is the main body and the private economy is the supplement.

Thus, what the China Bond yield indicates may only represent the activity of some economic entities.

When will the correlation between the rebound in China Bond yields and the BTC bull market disappear? Maybe once you start getting involved, the relationship patterns will change.

At least until then, if this related pattern is expected to still exist, then holding BTC should not be bearish on the economic recovery in 2025. Because it is very likely that without the latter, there will be no BTC bull market in 2025.