Author: Revc

The AI ​​Agent track has recently attracted a large number of investors due to extreme fluctuations, and its high returns Potential shapes a unique trading experience. MEME trading is stimulated by the "roller coaster jump of balances", and the instantaneous release of dopamine makes people excited and addictive. Investors are tested on the psychological and emotional level.

For investors, while enjoying the benefits brought by market fluctuations, they need to be wary of the erosion of addictive psychology and avoid falling into emotional operations. At the same time, through in-depth research on the long-term value and technical potential of the project, a more stable investment direction can be found amid fluctuations. The market needs to be both rational and passionate, rather than dominated by a single stimulus.

Currently, MEME project screening follows two lines, "speculation" and value discovery. This article analyzes the high-frequency "speculation" operation methods and reveals How professional MEME creators consume investors’ energy and capital.

Take the MEME token Agora as an example. After investors initially judged that the project had the potential to rise, they then conducted Scalping transactions for arbitrage. Multiple Scalping transactions quickly doubled the investor's principal, and this was just the beginning. The second to last Pen After buying, Agora quickly increased by 15 times within 30 minutes. Since the trading interface on the web side did not have stop-profit and stop-loss, the actual profit was far from 15 times. However, stimulated by the 15-fold increase, investors fell into the temptation to continue speculation. cycle, eventually losing everything in the fluctuations.

PS: Scalping is a high-frequency trading strategy in which traders make profits by capturing short-term price fluctuations in stocks, futures, or other financial instruments. The core idea of ​​Scalping is to take advantage of short-term fluctuations in the market to get in and out of trades quickly, taking smaller profits per trade but accumulating gains over multiple trades.

MEME trading is a high-intensity game of information capture and rapid execution, while PVP trading has A frameworkd indicator system has been evolved for screening projects. In this mode, the analysis and execution links are extremely compressed and usually only take a few minutes to complete, especially when the project market value has just reached the stage of N times the internal market value (about 68,000 US dollars). At this time, N is usually less than 10, that is, the market value is less than $600,000, and the market value is less than $600,000.The competition is extremely fierce. However, once a project rises and falls, this type of new project is often quickly abandoned by investors, and its popularity plummets.

1. Project judgment and screening: On the new page, based on the launch time Sorting, at this time, projects usually have the characteristics of trading volume 3-5 times the market value, and the blue chip index is in the 0-1.2% range. When quickly filtering on the first-level page, you can focus on the following indicators: the number of addresses is growing rapidly, the market value is low (avoid selecting projects with a market value of tens of millions of dollars), and there is no severe correction within the 1-5 minute time period and is still Projects that continue to reach new heights.

2. Release time: 30 minutes is usually a critical dividing line for most projects Signs of market smashing and network closing will begin about 30 minutes after the release (data collected at around 6 p.m. Beijing time).

3. Market value: Projects with a market value of around US$300,000 are usually more reasonable, while projects with a market value of tens of millions of US dollars may have higher costs. road risks.

4. Risk of running away: The GMGN platform will mark the operation records of developers in historical projects, such as withdrawing pools, smashing disks, or developers running away, etc. , these marks are important indicators for evaluating project stability.

5. Blue chip index: As a growth indicator, the blue chip index analyzes investor holdings The situation of some blue-chip tokens reflects the purchasing power of investors and community consensus, providing a basis for judging the health of the project.

6. Order book health indicator (X=trading volume/market capitalization): Usually in the early stage of the project, the X value is close to 2, and then shows a downward parabolic change. trend. When the parabola peaks, with trading volume hitting new highs and market capitalization approaching cycle highs, this usually indicates a peak in PVP trading activity. Afterwards, trading volume fell, market capitalization fell, and the “smart money” began to withdraw.

In addition, the transaction volume can be used to make a preliminary judgment on the token. For example, a new high in the amount of a single transaction may mean the entry of large funds, which has positive implications for the market. However, many trading platforms currently do not provide statistics on trend changes in single transaction amounts or transaction frequency.Relying solely on volume data may not be enough to fully analyze market movements.

7. Traders with tags: usually the leading MEME community and DEX platform , reflecting whether the announcement has covered the mainstream community, but usually such addresses are withdrawn from the pool faster.

8. TOP10 address indicator: This indicator is used to analyze token holdings before Ten addresses, their holdings as a proportion of the total supply. Generally speaking, it is healthy if the holding ratio of the top ten addresses is less than 20%, indicating that the distribution of tokens is more dispersed, the community consensus is strong, and the risk of selling is relatively low.

9. Profit expectation formula: As the market value of a token grows from US$300,000 to US$3 million, its success rate is often extremely low. Investors usually invest 1-10 SOL in a single project. However, excessive increase in liquidity may cause prices to skyrocket, triggering the greed of holders and quickly taking profits. For example, assuming that the success rate of an investor's screening project is P=10%, and the funds return to zero after failure, then based on the calculation of 1/P=10, a single project needs to achieve a rate of return of 1000% to achieve breakeven. In this case, a project with a market value of hundreds of thousands of dollars is more like a game of probability.

10. New coin priority strategy: As the screening and analysis framework for MEME tokens matures, creators tend to issue new tokens to facilitate Easily control relevant indicators. This new currency issuance model not only caters to the market's preference for "innovation", but also increases the possibility of attracting capital inflows in the short term.

11. Same concept, give priority to Base: take the Percy concept promoted by Musk recently For example, the Base network performs significantly better than Solana. This is because most users of the Base network are senior DeFi users, and their purchasing power is usually 3-4 times that of Solana users. In addition, trades on Base have more frequent whale entries, which further enhances its market performance and liquidity.

12 . Double the capital outlay strategy: due toPVP is a high-frequency and high-risk trading model, and users are susceptible to emotional fluctuations in the process. The "double your investment" strategy is a relatively scientific method with less psychological burden. By getting back their initial investment after their earnings have doubled, investors can more easily hold on to the remainder for the long term, freeing themselves from the stress and frustration of short-term mood swings.

13. Analysis of motivations for pool adjustment: In medium and large-scale projects, investors usually pair tokens with SOL and put them into the Raydium liquidity pool. Get up to 999.99% 24-hour APR. The core essence of DeFi is to short volatility, and when paired assets experience unilateral movements, liquidity providers may face impermanent losses. When investors increase liquidity pool assets, it usually means that they are optimistic about the short-term rise of corresponding assets, but the magnitude may be limited, reflecting a signal of short-term consolidation. When investors reduce the assets in the pool, they often have a bearish attitude towards a certain asset, which may be accompanied by selling or readjusting the exchange ratio of the asset.

14. Action observation of new addresses: regular market making is regarded as a danger signal , such as buying and selling large amounts, you can also study the trading habits of the developer's address.

After understanding the above methods and having a preliminary analysis of internal disk projects, congratulations, you are about to fall into the trap of a professional MEME trader. They will create a perfect MEME based on the indicators, which conforms to your project analysis and screening framework, and then create a story, AI + founder interaction + hackathon, etc., coupled with the emotional ups and downs caused by high-frequency trading, the judgment of the project will be quickly lost. , the trading discipline is broken, and losses ensue. Therefore, this article is a "MEME addiction recovery article". No matter which channel investors learn about the "wealth password", the information gap still exists, because PVP must have someone to take over, so new Web3 users should avoid being addicted to the MEME track. , to slowly develop the ability to discover value.

For framework AI Agent projects, you can follow the Forks page in the GitHub code base to see which projects reference Eliza's code. But even so, it is necessary to carefully evaluate the development progress and actual potential of the project to avoid blindly following the trend of investment.

The last MEME impact suggestion-arrange your time reasonably and pay attention to rest!!

MEME trading is not only a test of innovation and risk tolerance The test also fully demonstrated how AI The potential of cutting-edge concepts such as Agent in technological breakthroughs and decentralized narratives provides keen investors with opportunities to make quick profits while also advancing blockchain technology, token economic models, and AI. Exploration and development of application scenarios. In this environment, investors need to continuously optimize their immediate decision-making capabilities and market adaptability to find and apply advantageous strategies in high-risk markets.

However, the high-frequency volatility of the MEME market also contains great risks. Severe price fluctuations can easily induce emotional trading, causing investors to fall into a cycle of "blind speculation". The dopamine pleasure brought by short-term gains may People ignore the logic of long-term value investment, and over-reliance on short-term trading often leads to substantial losses in principal. Loss. Especially those projects that lack solid technical support or real application scenarios can easily become purely speculative tools after the popularity subsides, causing investors to suffer high losses. This kind of loss not only affects personal investment confidence, but also affects the investment confidence of investors. It will have a negative impact on the healthy development of the entire encryption industry and further exacerbate the instability of the market.

For investors, a rational and long-term perspective is particularly important. When participating in MEME transactions, technical analysis and project value mining should be combined to avoid being swayed by short-term fluctuations. Only by finding a balance between returns can we achieve real sustainable profits in this highly volatile market.