Author: Ice Frog

I was too young at that time and did not know all the gifts given by fate. , the price has already been secretly marked——Stephen Zweig

1. Coin Circle Casino Theory: Luck or skill, the road to success does not lie in high difficulty

Whether any game is gambling will ultimately prove a fundamental question: is it a "game of luck" or a "game of skill". Undoubtedly, in the early currency circle, luck accounted for the majority. As long as you dared to rush, you could win. The currency circle gave generous rewards to the early brave explorers. With the development of the industry, we see that wealth myths in the currency circle still pop up from time to time, but the chances of victory brought by luck alone are getting smaller and smaller. We have seen as many stories of getting rich overnight, and we have also witnessed how many stories of getting rich overnight. The tragedy of seconds returning to zero.

The importance of luck is that it gives you opportunities, and the importance of skill is that it allows you to turn opportunities into wealth. At the current moment, for retail investors, we must admit that luck still exists in the currency circle, but we must also admit that the importance of skill is getting higher and higher.

What is the ultimate technique for winning in the currency circle. Different people have different opinions. Some people think that he is the king of K-line who is invincible in the short term, while others think that he is the king of price investment who dares to take heavy positions and take long positions. However, in terms of final winning rate, both strategies have winners, but there are also ordinary players who end up in disastrous defeats.

If we look at it from the perspective of an ordinary retail investor like me, for most of the market, what needs to be remembered is: embrace low-difficulty investments It is the only magic weapon to win. Pay attention to the restrictive attributive: ordinary people and ordinary retail investors.

It is undoubtedly very difficult for diamond hands and short-term FOMO paper hands to achieve the final victory.

2. Survivor bias of Diamond Hands: If you can do it, you can do it; if you can’t do it, don’t force yourself to do it

Before discussing Diamond Hands, we must assume that it is a It's really ordinary, except for the bold Web3 surfer who doesn't have much talent. The K line is also half-assed, and I can't hold it for a long time. I feel anxious when I see others getting rich, and I lose when I rush in. It's a typical leek. Next, we further discuss the probability of ordinary people becoming diamond players, so that you can completely give up.

Diamond hands first originated from forums such as reddit, refers to those investors who resolutely refuse to sell no matter how big the fluctuations of their holdings are.

It should be noted that there are two conditions implicit in this: highly volatile financial assets and a determination not to sell. Investors who hold gold for a long time may not be able to obtain this honorary title. Only those who hold for a long time and resolutely do not sell in the highly volatile speculative market, and finally get big results, are qualified to be called diamond hands.

In a circle like the currency circle, where wealth and wealth can happen at any time, no one is unwilling to become a diamond player, but not most people can become a diamond player. Otherwise, the number of diamond players in the currency circle would not be so rare, and a few of them would have already become legends in the world.

To be a diamond player, you must possess the following qualities:

1) With super insight + luck, you can see the growth space of this asset in the future. Before it comes out, you can already see its huge future growth space and the certainty of growth.

2) You have abundant free funds and can invest a certain amount of funds without affecting your current life and your mentality.

3) You must be determined enough to surpass the public's understanding and not change for a long time.

These three points are not complicated, but few can actually practice them. Easier said than done. Especially for most retail investors, regardless of the second point, the practical difficulty of the first and third points shows that diamond traders are really one in a million.

So the basic characteristics of a diamond player are: first, you need some spare money, and most people will have some; secondly, you need to have cognitive abilities that far exceed those of the general public. This one has already wiped out most people. In the end, it is necessary to continue to be emotionally stable and firm. If this one continues to wipe out a large number of people, then the probability of an ordinary person becoming a diamond player will become very low.

What needs to be clarified is that the above are the probabilities of an ordinary person. There is no shortage of people in this market who dare to bet their wealth, and they will not be afraid even after a long and huge retracement. Some of the wavering people have achieved great results, but these people are not ordinary people.

The cruelty of reality is that we can only see one person winning easily, and we may say"Princes, generals, ministers, I'd rather have the seed," he shouted, but he may not know that the pain he can endure is nothing he can bear. This is both talent, luck and acquired training.

If you can do it, you can do it. If you can't do it, don't force yourself to do it. Waiting sometimes gives you value in return, because you understand what real value is. Most of the time, waiting does not form value, and in the end it becomes obsession. Because it is rare to identify players with real long-term value. They are either extremely smart, extremely talented, or they are different from ordinary people in terms of hard work, and at least one of them is outstanding.

Then next, if the probability of becoming a diamond player is very low, then can I get rich based on short-term FOMO. The answer is still no.

3. The trap of short-term FOMO: I can do it, I want to go up; I can’t do it, but I can’t go down?

First of all, financial market bubbles are definitely It’s a compliment, but you have to understand bubbles and embrace bubbles, but you must not become a bubble. Short-term FOMO not only tests your psychology, but also tests your operating skills. His main test is:

Everyone else is doing it ten times a day, do you want to play or not?

Everyone else is on the bus, but you can’t get on

Others see it 100 times, but you got off at 20 o’clock

Another golden dog comes out, but you are not in the car

You get on the car and find that you are trapped

The whole drama ends

With recent MEME Take the frenzy as an example. This kind of psychological state and cycle is performed every day, from waiting and watching, getting on the market, adding positions, to holding on, stopping losses, and leaving the market.

You will find a surprising phenomenon: there seems to be people who make endless money during this period, but the person who gets the big results is not you. The beginning is big profit, the middle is small profit, and the next is small profit.Loss, in the end it will be zero, stuck or huge loss.

What exactly is the problem?

The characteristics of short-term FOMO are: high odds, but the winning rate is not necessarily high. In addition to the generally large-scale rising market, the FOMO market is often highly concentrated on a few assets for speculation, or hot money rotates rapidly between different sectors, and the emotion and randomness increase significantly. After all, no one knows whether Musk will be there tomorrow. What emoticon/picture will be sent?

Scenarios where short-term FOMO can make money: get in early, run fast, and control it.

Get in early: You can discover the value of this asset earlier than most of the market, and have high market acumen and judgment capabilities

The probability of running fast: you can identify top risks faster and get out in time; the ability to control greed

Control the probability of winning: you can not operate at will, and after getting the upper hand, you want to buy everything; extreme position management and risk management capabilities

At the same time People with these three abilities are definitely in the minority in the market.

What we need to note is that this does not mean that short-term FOMO means losing money, but that the probability of making big money in short-term FOMO is very low. For most people, it is still a difficult and undesirable path.

Buffett’s teacher Graham once said: The bull market is the main reason for the losses of ordinary investors. The profound reason for this is that it is not bull market FOMO that leads to money losses, but huge losses caused by ignoring short-term risks.

The paradox of financial markets is that a bear market does not mean high risks, and a bull market does not mean low risks.

For short-term FOMO, when you wait and see, a small group of people have already opened positions in advance. By the time you get on the bus, the price will increase several times a day. It makes you forget what you are doing. At this time, some people have already left the market early. By the time you find something is wrong, you will have been deeply trapped.

4. Will it be different this time: current cost, future cost

IWhen we discuss playing diamond hands and winning with short-term FOMO, we will find that the probability of winning the final victory in these two situations is relatively low. Maybe you will say that after Trump came to power, the good news exploded, and the bull market has no upper limit, so diamond hands and short-term FOMO will win. The actual situation is probably not the case. There has never been an eternal bull market in history, let alone an eternal bear market. Everything is a cycle.

For ordinary people, we need to embrace low-difficulty investments instead of looking for high-difficulty investments. At the same time, we are not saying that since diamond hands and short-term FOMO If you can't win, then just give up. Every choice you make now is a cost, which may be a huge reward or an unbearable price in the future.

For most ordinary people, the probability of achieving instant wealth through any method that can be copied is very low. Your resources, talents, personality and even The environment is such that failure can happen at any time.

The methods of getting rich suddenly are difficult to copy, but the reasons for failure are mostly the same.

The so-called low difficulty means that on the basis of fully understanding your own personality, combining your own resource endowments, you can do what you are best at and have the highest winning rate. The key is long-term persistence.

Suppose you can't even provide basic living security, you should find a job at this time instead of practicing diamond skills;

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Suppose you are a person with large emotional fluctuations and cannot tolerate retracement, you should not repeatedly pursue high prices in a volatile market. You should focus on a target and use small batches of funds to ambush for a long time, or you should Just concentrate on being a hairdresser and make the most certain money.

Overcoming the weaknesses of human nature has never been an easy task. For most ordinary people, it is likely that they will not be able to challenge and challenge them most of the time in their lives. To overcome it, the only less difficult thing you can do is to continue to learn from the practices of top experts, incorporate it into your own system, and make the investment that you are best at and have the highest winning rate.

This is my perception, and it is also a suggestion for ordinary retail investors. It may not make you rich overnight, but in the long run of life, you will lose less. Isn't it another kind of victory?

Standing at the starting point of the new bull market, no matter which choice I make, this time, I willHope you can win!