According to Golden Finance, Citi predicted three main scenarios for the US Tariff Policy Day on April 2 in its latest report and analyzed the corresponding market impact: Only reciprocal tariffs were announced: the market response was relatively limited in this scenario. Reciprocal tariff plus value-added tax (VAT): The U.S. dollar index may rise 50-100 basis points immediately, and global stock markets may fall. In addition to reciprocity tariffs and VAT, industry tariffs are also included: the market response may be more intense in this scenario. The report noted that after the S&P 500’s worst first quarter start since 2020, analysts have warned that the potential risk of subsequent declines is greater than the gains. Analysts believe that future tariffs and retaliation actions will be key, and the market response on April 2 will depend on the timing of the tariffs, especially industry tariffs and the speed of response of other countries to reciprocity tariffs.