Author: Socra, Golden Finance

On November 22, BTC reached a maximum of $99,588, which is very close to the $100,000 mark. This has also allowed the total market value of crypto to exceed US$3.5 trillion, hitting a record high, and Bitcoin’s market share has exceeded 55%. The market sentiment index shows that it remains in the greed stage, market activity has increased significantly, and altcoins generally have a large increase following the trend of the market.

However, the market poured cold water on enthusiastic investors at this time. BTC fell back below $96,000. While long contracts were liquidated in large amounts, the popularity of Meme projects, which had been popular for many days, also declined. . Although many institutions are optimistic about the market outlook, and the prediction market also shows that there is an 85% chance that BTC will reach $100,000 before the end of the year, there are still views that cannot be overly optimistic.

Bullish: $100,000 is just the starting point

VanEck: Reaffirmed that the target price of $180,000 for this cycle of Bitcoin remains unchanged. Judging from key indicators, this round of rebound seems to be the only one. Just getting started. The perpetual futures funding rate has been above 10% since November 12, indicating increasing bullish momentum; the current 30-day moving average relative unrealized profit level is about 0.54, which usually indicates that the market will reach a peak in the longer period; Search The popularity of the word is only 34% of the high in May 2021, indicating that the speculative mania has not yet spread, and the re-participation of retail investors will give Bitcoin room to rise further.

Ripple CEO predicts a boom in U.S. cryptocurrencies and says Trump becoming a crypto-friendly president could lead to a better regulatory environment.

CryptoQuant CEO: Judging from the progress of the bull markets in 2017 and 2020, Bitcoin is still in the early stages of price discovery in this round of bull markets. In addition, on-chain indicators set the highest price of Bitcoin’s cycle at $141,000.

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of this year, and by the end of 2025, it may reach $250,000, and Dogecoin may reach $1.

TYMIO founder Verbitskii: Bitcoin price will be between $100,000 and $120,000 by the end of 2024 or early 2025 - before President-elect Trump takes office on January 20, 2025 . As more traders join the fray, BTC could reach $180,000 by the end of 2025.

Metafide CEO: Bitcoin will definitely reach $100,000 this year, may exceed $250,000 next year, and $500,000 may be completely achievable by the end of 2027.

EMJ Capital founder: The Thanksgiving period is usually the springboard for a bullish period in cryptocurrencies, and a real market structure is about to form. In addition, the U.S. SEC may have new encryption regulatory policies, as well as the expansion of global adoption and the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserveIt may become an important catalyst for Bitcoin and trigger its next bull run.

Fund company Intelligent Alpha: Bitcoin will reach $140,000.

Positive events and expectations

The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) announced plans to launch the first batch of cash-settled index options related to the Bitcoin spot price starting from December 2 (Monday) .

On last week’s trading day (November 18 to November 22, Eastern Time), the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of US$3.38 billion in a single week last week, reaching a new historical weekly net inflow high.

On November 22, MicroStrategy completed the issuance of US$3 billion in convertible notes to purchase more Bitcoins. Subsequently, the company’s founder, Michael Saylor, posted a message suggesting that it may increase its holdings of more Bitcoins.

Bitcoin mining company MARA completed a $1 billion convertible note financing, with the proceeds mainly used to purchase Bitcoin and repurchase existing convertible notes due in 2026.

The British "Times" discusses whether pension funds should invest in Bitcoin, that is, it plans to allocate 3% of pension funds to Bitcoin.

In the past 7 days, the balance of Binance’s Bitcoin wallet has decreased by 20,707.53 coins, and that of Coinbase Pro has decreased by 3,322.95 coins.

Galaxy CEO: Almost all Trump cabinet members hold Bitcoin and are strong supporters of digital assets.

The board of directors of Anixa Biosciences, a Nasdaq-listed company, approved the purchase of Bitcoin as a reserve asset to achieve higher shareholder value.

SAIHEAT Limited, a US listed company, has purchased $1.5 million worth of Bitcoin and currently holds approximately 102 Bitcoins, including pledged and restricted Bitcoins.

Trump’s “Crypto Advisory Committee” will establish the previously promised Bitcoin reserve. The committee is expected to provide advice on digital assets, work with Congress to advance cryptocurrency legislation, and establish Trump’s promised Bitcoin reserve. Currency reserves are coordinated among various agencies including the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and the Treasury Department.

Vaneck: Trump will repeal restrictive measures such as the SEC’s accounting bulletins and support broader adoption by encouraging banks to offer cryptocurrency custody solutions. Additionally, legislation allowing state banks to issue stablecoins could bolster U.S. dominance in the digital asset ecosystem.

Potential risks and negatives

Bloomberg: Bitcoin’s rise has temporarily stalled after approaching the US$100,000 level, and may experience consolidation in the short term. The bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin is becoming extreme, with seller bias intensifying as the currency approaches the $100,000 mark. Bitcoin has been in extreme hypers since the electionBuy state, it is bound to stagnate.

On November 21, Citron said it had used MicroStrategy short positions to hedge.

Open interest in Ethereum futures has reached a record high of more than $20 billion, data shows, indicating that more traders are betting on a fall in the price of Ethereum. At the same time, the estimated leverage ratio (ELR) has peaked, reflecting a greater reliance on borrowed funds - an approach that amplifies the likelihood of quick liquidations.

Victory Securities: The risk of macro and high-magnitude negative shocks to the cryptocurrency market has passed, and the risk is more focused on expected fulfillment. Funding Rates fell after halving. Bitcoin’s short-term direction is not one-sided, and short sellers are also accumulating strength.

Galaxy CEO: It is inevitable that Bitcoin will exceed $100,000, but there may be a correction. There is a lot of leverage in the cryptocurrency market right now, and the crypto community is already highly leveraged, so a market correction is coming. Stocks like MicroStrategy, which trade similarly to Bitcoin's leveraged trades, could face a larger correction.

Glassnode: Bitcoin’s rally still has room to run, but the historical trajectory shows the possibility of a major correction.

Summary

Bitcoin has skyrocketed since Trump won the election on November 6, rising from around US$70,000 to US$100,000. During these approximately 20 days, short sellers suffered heavy losses. As of this writing, Bitcoin has rebounded from its low point to around $99,000, which still shows the market’s optimism about Bitcoin’s prospects. However, compared with the market environment half a month ago, it is obvious that there are more unstable factors in the encryption market at this time. Therefore, investors still need to be wary of hidden downside risks.