In the long run, Bitcoin’s rise is actually facing a risk that has become a hot topic in the stock market recently, but most cryptocurrency investors may not have paid attention to it. : Quantum Computing.

The emerging technology attracted attention this month after Google announced a breakthrough with its new Willow quantum computing chip.

According to Google, Willow can exponentially reduce errors and solve problems that have occurred in the field for nearly 30 years. A key challenge in quantum error correction has been under investigation. Additionally, Willow completed a "standard benchmark calculation" in less than five minutes. Even today's fastest supercomputers would take "10 to the power of 25" years to complete this calculation - a number that far exceeds the age of the universe.

For cryptocurrency markets such as Bitcoin, quantum computing technology A potential fatal risk behind the development would be that if the technology is used in hacking attacks, thieves may be able to easily steal Bitcoins from supposedly secure digital wallets, causing the price of the currency to plummet.

Long-term "natural enemies" appear

Relevant researchers said that the function is powerful enough to crack bits It may still be ten years or more before the actual advent of quantum computing equipment. Still, unless the Bitcoin developer community can further upgrade its encryption technology, advances in quantum technology will pose long-term risks to Bitcoin.

Arthur Herman, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank, said that if someone gained the ability to develop a quantum computer hacker and decided to use this If you have the ability to attack cryptocurrency, then there will be a time bomb waiting to explode at any time in the currency circle.

Analysts also warned that quantum computing attacks on Bitcoin could also have harmful spillover effects on traditional financial markets.

A 2022 study by the Hudson Institute estimates that if Bitcoin is attacked by a quantum hackerThe attack would cause more than $3 trillion in losses to cryptocurrency and other markets and trigger a deep economic recession. Herman said the potential losses from quantum hackers have grown since the release of the research report, as Bitcoin has climbed to near $100,000 and become a mainstream investment asset.

US President-elect Trump has also promised to establish a strategic reserve for his Bitcoin holdings, calling it a "digital Knox" "Fort Knox" - Fort Knox is the most important military training base for American armored forces, and the Federal Reserve's treasury is also located here.

However, quantum computing technology may allow hackers to easily raid this "digital Fort Knox"...

Unlike standard computers, in which all data is fundamentally represented as binary numbers of 0 or 1, quantum computers take advantage of the peculiar properties of subatomic particles, using "qubits" "(qubit) to represent data, qubits can exist in a continuous state of a mixture of 0 and 1.

This allows quantum computers to quickly complete tasks that would take standard computers more than a human lifetime to solve. These tasks might include developing new drugs, predicting the weather, or cracking encryption used to protect sensitive data.

How to affect the currency circle?

Putting it into the world of cryptocurrency, for example, the most commonly used encryption methods today involve very large numbers called "public keys", which are Multiples of two large prime numbers. These two prime numbers are combined to generate what is called a "private key." Data can be encoded with the public key and decoded with the private key.

Currently, cryptocurrency users keep their private keys secret, but public keys can be released or shared with the outside world. The advantage of this approach is that it takes a lot of time for a standard computer to deduce the private key from the public key because "factoring" - finding the prime numbers that can be multiplied to get the public key - is very difficult.

But quantum computing will make factoring easier. In 1994, an American mathematician designed an algorithm that can "factorize" huge numbers in a few minutes as long as you have a powerful enough quantum computer.

From a cryptographic point of view, this breakthrough will not only threaten Bitcoin, but also traditional finance, because manyOnline banking systems all use variations of public key encryption technology. But security experts warn that Bitcoin could be a particularly tempting target for quantum hackers.

Skip Sanzeri, co-founder of QuSecure, a startup specializing in quantum-safe network security, said that Bitcoin will become the target of crazy attacks. Banks will have certain regulations, defense mechanisms, and the ability to protect their customers, whereas Bitcoin is almost the “Wild West.” If your Bitcoins are stolen, your wallet will not compensate you.

Although hackers have stolen Bitcoin in the past, their attacks generally involved unauthorized access to cryptocurrency exchanges. A quantum computing attack would be more subtle because it would cast doubt on the security of the entire Bitcoin network, not just a handful of less secure cryptocurrency exchanges. Once quantum computers become powerful enough, all Bitcoin will eventually be at risk.

Some Bitcoin libraries are particularly vulnerable to quantum hackers. For example, in the early days of Bitcoin, Bitcoins were stored in addresses with exposed public keys, including approximately 1 million Bitcoins believed to belong to Bitcoin’s mysterious creator Satoshi Nakamoto. According to Galaxy Digital, approximately 1.72 million Bitcoins (worth more than $160 billion at current prices) were held in such addresses before they were phased out.

Many cryptocurrency executives have previously stated that Bitcoin can ensure its security in the future by using new encryption methods that cannot be easily cracked by quantum computers, but Such an overhaul could take years. The bigger trouble is that due to Bitcoin's decentralized nature, changing its technology requires broad consensus among those who maintain its network around the world - similar upgrades in the past have been slow and controversial.

Even if the crypto community finally agrees on how to make Bitcoin secure against quantum hackers, there's another hurdle: existing Bitcoins will need to be moved to a system that can resist quantum hacking. in the address of quantum computing. Every person or business holding Bitcoin needs to perform such a transfer or risk having the Bitcoin stolen by a quantum hacker.