Source: FT Chinese website

In 2016, Trump was elected as the President of the United States for the first time, becoming the first president in U.S. history without any political or military experience. Why was Trump, an “amateur” elected?

On May 30, 2024, the jury in the Manhattan Criminal Court of New York in the "hush money" case unanimously ruled that Trump was guilty of all 34 criminal charges raised by the prosecutor. Why can Trump, who has been convicted of a crime, be re-elected? Most of what people call "uncertainty" comes from their own luck with Trump, but in fact, Trump is certain. During Trump's first term, he defined China as the United States' main competitor and launched a "trade war." This will only intensify in his second term. Compared with others, especially Trump, we cannot take any chances and should seriously deal with his second term.

Why was “amateur” Trump elected in 2016?

Trump’s campaign in the 2016 presidential election took “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) as its core slogan and centered on issues such as economy, immigration, trade, diplomacy, and anti-establishment. His campaign strategy successfully attracted a broad but specific group of voters, winning the US election for Trump, who had no experience in governing.

First of all, the economy focuses on revitalizing the manufacturing industry and prioritizing the domestic economy, including: a commitment to comprehensive tax cuts, especially tax cuts for the middle class and enterprises, to stimulate economic growth; a commitment to restrict outsourcing, Increase infrastructure investment and crack down on illegal immigration to create more jobs for American workers; emphasize the restoration of manufacturing, criticize globalization for causing unemployment among American workers, and call for "Bring Jobs Back".

The second is to strengthen border security and restrict illegal immigration. Trump proposed building a "border wall" on the U.S.-Mexico border to prevent illegal immigration and drug entry, and required Mexico to pay for the construction of the wall; advocated strict restrictions on immigration, especially immigrants from the Middle East and other "high-risk"; promised to Tough measures against illegal immigration, including speeding up deportations and cracking down on sanctuary cities.

The third is "America First" trade, which emphasizes reshaping fair trade rules and protecting American interests. Trump called the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) "disastrous" and threatened to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP); criticized trade practices and promised to impose tariffs on products to protect American companies and workers.

In addition, there is anti-establishmentism that fights corruption and challenges elites, as well as diplomacy that prioritizes US interests and re-examines alliances.

Trump’s campaign appeal first attracted working-class white voters, especially those living in the “Rust Belt” of the Midwest (such as Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) who have been affected by globalization and the decline of manufacturing. seriously affectedWhite working-class voters resonate strongly with Trump's promise to restore manufacturing and create jobs.

Secondly, voters living in rural areas and small towns, especially conservative whites, express support for Trump’s immigration and cultural conservatism. They are generally disappointed with the “establishment” and seek to change the status quo. leader.

Once again, the Republican base, conservative voters, especially Christian evangelicals, are satisfied with Trump's positions, including abortion, freedom and guns. Although Trump's personal style is controversial in the eyes of some, he appeals to conservatives in key ways.

Finally, Trump’s anti-traditional campaign style and “outsider” image have attracted some independent voters and anti-establishment voters who are tired of the elites. They hope to promote “reform” in Washington through Trump. Break the existing ecology.

In 2016, white voters in the United States accounted for approximately 70% of the total electorate. Judging from the election results, more than 80% of Trump's voters are white. In the face of growing immigration, movements for racial equality, and the expansion of diverse cultures, most white voters feel that their cultural status and economic interests are threatened.

Trump’s approval rating among African-American voters is about 8%. The majority of African-American voters support the Democratic Party, but African-American turnout in 2016 was down from 2012, in part due to a lack of enthusiasm for Hillary. Although Trump's immigration policies were seen as weakening Latino support, he still received 28% of the vote among Latinos. Asian voters generally lean toward the Democratic Party, but Trump has won some support among some conservative Asian groups.

Trump’s main campaign propositions revolve around “America First” economic and trade, strict immigration control and anti-establishment sentiments, capturing the psychology of voters who are disappointed with globalization, immigration and tradition. Through his outspoken personal style and strong populist advocacy, he successfully attracted working-class, conservative and anti-establishment voters, laying the foundation for his victory in the 2016 election.

Why can the "criminal" Trump be re-elected in 2024?

The 2024 U.S. presidential election has come to an end. Trump successfully defeated the Democratic candidate and current Vice President Harris. Win the Presidency. Trump received 312 electoral votes and Harris received 226 electoral votes. In this election, Trump won all key swing states including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, and more. It can be said that Trump achieved a crushing victory.

The jury in the "hush money" case unanimously found Trump guilty of all 34 criminal charges raised by the prosecutor. Trump thus became the first former president in U.S. history to be found guilty in a criminal case. In addition, during the 2024 campaign, Trump is also troubled by multiple criminal and civil cases, including: election interference cases (controversies related to the results of the 2020 election, especially the election interference allegations in Georgia), confidential documents cases (Found in possession of confidential documents at Mar-a-Lago in Florida), as well as other legal disputes (cases related to business practices and personal life). Why was Trump, who had a criminal case against him, elected with an overwhelming advantage?

What are the similarities and differences between the 2024 campaign proposals and those in 2016?

Trump will continue to emphasize "America First" economic, trade and diplomacy in 2024, including protecting jobs, reducing outsourcing and being tough on China. As in 2016, Trump views illegal immigration as a major problem and continues to advocate building a border wall and restricting immigration. He continues to cast himself as an "anti-establishment" crusader, criticizing the "Washington swamp" and special interests and pandering to the dissatisfaction of grassroots voters.

The 2024 campaign advocates placing more emphasis on economic issues, especially controlling inflation and energy prices. These issues did not significantly become the core issue in 2016. The 2024 proposals also involve more "culture war" issues such as "woke culture" (Woke Culture), gender education, LGBTQ+ rights and anti-tech censorship, while these issues did not become the focus in 2016.

Grassroots white voters, especially working-class and lower-middle-class white voters, are a group greatly affected by globalization and immigration issues. They are anxious about inflation, rising energy prices and cultural changes, and support The "America First" economy and society remain an important support base for Trump. Trump’s emphasis on conservative values ​​and freedoms continues to appeal to evangelical Christians and cultural conservatives, a segment of the electorate who are particularly concerned about culture wars and education issues.

An obvious change in the 2024 presidential election process is that technology giants such as Musk, Bezos, and Zuckerberg expressed their support for Trump during or after the election. Traditionally a die-hard supporter of the Democratic Party. The shift of technology giants includes the economy (after Trump is elected, he will continue to reduce tax rates or provide other corporate tax benefits), regulation (Trump and the Republican Party emphasize "free speech" and criticize big technology companies for excessive censorship of content), energy and environment (Trump's energy policy tends to support fossil fuels while not overly restricting the new energy industry, which may provide a more balanced market environment for companies such as Tesla). Another factor that cannot be ignored is their "awakening" culture” (Woke Culture). Musk has publicly criticized "woke culture" and "correctness" many times in recent years, believing that these cultures pose obstacles to innovation and corporate development. Trump’s stance against this culture aligns with Musk’s views.

While continuing his 2016 “America First” philosophy, Trump’s 2024 campaign also incorporates new economic and cultural issues to respond to current political and social realities. The claims are aimed at solidifying his core base while courting voters affected by inflation and energy prices, as well as independent voters dissatisfied with Biden. By focusing on economic, immigration and cultural issues, he seeks toIn the 2016 election, he once again established himself as a "people's spokesperson".

Challenges and divisions within the Democratic Party

In 2024, climate and social divisions in the United States will remain serious. The Democratic Party faces many challenges, not least the divisions between different factions within the party. Some supporters of the Democratic Party lean toward radical left-wing ideals, while others are more center-right.

On the economic front, although Biden has implemented large-scale fiscal stimulus measures, the U.S. economy still faces problems such as inflation, job market instability, and declining purchasing power of the people, especially for some working class and middle class people. For class voters, the effect of economic recovery is not significant. Public dissatisfaction with rising prices, high housing prices, and stagnant income growth has caused some voters to lose confidence in the Democratic Party.

Trump’s “victim” image and mobilization

Trump is very good at shaping and utilizing the “victim” image, which allows him to turn his predicament into capital when facing legal proceedings . He has repeatedly emphasized through social media, campaign rallies and public speeches that he is the target of deep attacks and political opponents, especially the so-called "left-wing conspiracy" and "persecution." Trump has stoked sympathy and support for him among voters by framing the legal troubles as sacrifices he faces as an anti-establishment candidate.

During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump suffered two assassination attempts. The assassination attempt allowed Trump to portray himself as a victim of violence, reinforcing his previously stated image of a “victim.” He took advantage of this during his campaign, claiming that he would "take a bullet" for democracy and interests, thereby stimulating voters' sympathy and support.

In general, Trump can be re-elected in 2024 due to his strong voter base, effective campaign strategy, efficient use of media operations, accurate grasp of economic and cultural issues, and the intersection of multiple factors such as the characteristics of the American two-party system and the Electoral College system.

Globalization, Immigration and MAGA

Globalization has brought far-reaching economic, social and cultural impacts to the United States, especially the middle- and lower-class white groups, which are negative in many aspects, causing them to have a strong negative attitude toward globalization. dissatisfaction.

Globalization has led to the decline of manufacturing and the outflow of jobs. With the advancement of globalization, many American companies have moved manufacturing to countries with lower labor costs, especially China, Mexico and other Asian countries, in order to reduce costs. This has resulted in a large number of job losses for middle- and lower-class white Americans, especially in traditional industrial states (such as Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc.). These areas were originally the centers of American manufacturing and home to a large number of blue-collar workers, who have lost a large number of job opportunities in the context of globalization.

In many industries, as manufacturing is outsourced, the remaining jobs typically pay less and require fewer skills. This has forced many workers who once worked in factories, steel plants, automobile plants and other fields to accept lower-paying and worse-paying positions, resulting in poor quality of life for them.decline.

The direct consequences are local economic shrinkage and community decline. Many cities and small towns with manufacturing as their backbone have been severely impacted by globalization. When these factories and businesses moved abroad, the economies of many places struggled, unemployment rose, and living standards fell. Residents of these cities and small towns, especially middle- and lower-class whites, face higher poverty rates and social problems, such as rising crime rates and increased needs for social welfare. As job opportunities decrease and income levels stagnate, it is difficult for many people to obtain opportunities for upward economic mobility. Social classes are solidified, and the intergenerational transmission of poverty becomes more serious.

What followed was an increase in the gap between rich and poor. While globalization has facilitated the flow of technology, capital, and information, helping some high-skilled workers and large companies reap huge benefits, it has not benefited all Americans. White people in the middle and lower classes, especially low-skilled workers, often fail to benefit from the economic growth brought about by globalization. Instead, they face stagnant wages, rising costs of living, and difficulty finding competitive positions in the labor market.

On the one hand, high-skilled technical workers, financial industry practitioners, managers, etc. have gained more opportunities due to globalization, and their salary levels have gradually increased; on the other hand, low-skilled traditional worker groups have lost The lack of security has further widened the gap between the rich and the poor. Many lower- and middle-class white people feel marginalized in this change.

Globalization has not only changed the economic structure of the United States, but also brought about cultural changes. With the increase in immigration and the integration of global cultures, American society has become more diverse. Many lower-middle-class white voters feel their culture, traditions and way of life are threatened. Especially when they see their communities gradually changing, and foreign cultures, languages, and influences increasingly increasing, they develop strong cultural anxiety and identity crisis.

As globalization reduces the economic status of middle- and lower-class white groups in the United States, many people believe that the "American Dream" they once believed in has been shattered. They believe that they could live a better life through hard work in the past, but now they face problems such as job outflow, stagnant income and family instability, which makes them disappointed with the fairness and future of American society.

In addition to the economy, the racial structure of the population is also an important factor affecting the US presidential election. According to 2024 estimated data, among the major ethnic groups, white Americans (non-Hispanics) account for 58.4%, Latinos (i.e. Hispanics) account for 19.5%, African Americans account for 13.7%, and Asians account for 6.4%. The chart shows the racial distribution of the U.S. population since 1990.

In 1990, white Americans accounted for 75.6%, Latinos accounted for 9%, African Americans accounted for 11.7%, and Asians accounted for 2.7%. Over the past 35 years, the proportion of whites has continued to decline, from 75.6% in 1990 to 58.4% in 2024; Hispanics have grown significantly, from 9% to 19.5% in 2024, becoming the most important minority group; African Americans The population is growing steadily, soThe proportion has basically remained between 12% and 13%; while Asians have risen rapidly, with their proportion increasing from 2.8% to 6.4%, mainly due to highly educated and skilled immigrants. The U.S. Census Bureau predicts that by 2045, whites will no longer be the majority (i.e., less than 50% of the population).

Chart 1: Racial proportions in the United States

Data source: U.S. Census Bureau (U.S. Census Bureau)

The main drivers of changes in the racial composition of the population are immigration and birth rates. The United States is a country of immigrants, and changes in the places of origin of immigrants directly affect the racial composition. Historically, European immigrants in the 19th century laid the foundation for the proportion of white people; in the second half of the 20th century, immigrants from Latin America and Asia increased significantly. The birth rates of Latinos and some Asian groups are significantly higher than those of white and African-American groups, driving their share of the overall population to rise.

The impact of globalization on the white middle- and lower-class groups in the United States is generally negative, especially in terms of the loss of manufacturing jobs, increasing economic inequality, shrinking local economies, and cultural identity crises. The proportion of white Americans in the population is getting smaller and smaller, which has intensified their antipathy towards globalization and modern social changes, and promoted support for protectionism, populism and "America First".

Trump’s MAGA campaign platform caters to the emotions and needs of middle- and lower-class white voters, promising to restore their lost economy through measures such as canceling trade agreements, restricting immigration, and promoting the return of manufacturing. and cultural status.

In addition, the abolition of affirmative action is also an important part of Trump's 2016 campaign platform. Trump made it clear during the campaign that he opposed affirmative action, especially racial quotas in higher education and employment; affirmative action is essentially "reverse discrimination" and advocates abolishing it to give everyone equal opportunities. , and should not favor or discriminate against certain groups because of race or gender. He believes that this "instead kills opportunities" and does not actually help minority groups such as African Americans and Latinos. Instead, it causes unfair treatment to white and Asian groups. For Trump's conservative supporters and lower-middle-class white voters, the position aligns with their understanding of fair play and racial equality.

The impact of Trump 2.0 on the environment and how to deal with it

In Trump’s 2024 core campaign platform, immigration and tax cuts have no direct impact or have little impact, while tariffs and trade have some impact. direct impact.

The re-elected Trump may impose higher tariffs on imported goods, especially those from. He has said he is considering imposing a comprehensive tariff of 10% on all imported goods, and levying tariffs of 60% or higher on goods.Tariffs, it was even exaggeratedly mentioned in the Detroit speech that tariffs of up to 100% or 200% may be imposed on automakers' auto factories in Mexico to ensure that the products of such automakers cannot flow into the United States.

Trump emphasizes putting America first and being tough on China. Judging from their resumes and previous public remarks, the cabinet members he nominated have one outstanding feature: they are a group of young anti-China hawks who are both loyal to Trump. The composition of this group of confidants shows that Trump has emphasized the persistence and depth of his tough stance against China in his personnel layout. It can be reasonably predicted that in the next term of office, Trump will clearly lean towards a hard line towards China, and this overall tone may be clearly reflected in future formulation and implementation.

During Trump’s last term, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative successively included China into the “Priority Watch List” through the “2017 Special 301 Report” and launched a “301” investigation against China. From June 2018 to December 2019, Trump imposed a wide range of tariffs on China and carried out five rounds of actions, imposing tariffs on a total of US$550 billion in goods.

According to calculations by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), this has led to a significant increase in the average U.S. tariff rate on imported goods from 3% in early 2018 to September 2019. It reached a high of around 21%; then it began to drop to around 19.3% in March 2020, which is still at a relatively high level.

Learning from historical experience, although the last round of Sino-US trade friction dragged down the total export growth in 2019 to around 0%. However, the overall impact on economic growth is relatively controllable, and the economic growth rate in 2019 dropped by 0.9% to 6.0% compared with 2017. Considering that the current export structure has been significantly adjusted, and the export dependence on the United States has dropped from 19% in 2017 to the current 14.7%, the marginal impact of the United States' additional tariffs on China will be weakened.

Trump is very sensitive to trade deficits, and his trade goal is to reduce the U.S. trade deficit to zero. Chart 2 shows the trade balance with the world's major economies. In 2024, the trade surplus with the United States is US$361.032 billion, accounting for 36.4% of the total trade surplus of US$992.155 billion, and accounting for 1.97% of GDP in 2024 (estimated by the IMF to be US$18.3 trillion). If the trade surplus with the United States really drops to 0, it will have a big impact on China's exports and economy.

Chart 2: Trade balance with the world's major economies (100 million U.S. dollars)

Data Source: General Administration of Customs, iFind

According to PIIE calculations, Trump’s current round of tariffs hasThe average drag on international GDP growth is 0.2%-1%, the average drag on U.S. real GDP growth is 0.1%-0.4%, and the average impact on U.S. inflation is 0.25%-0.6%.

As a response to the US tariff increase, the first step is to expand diversified export markets. Deepen trade cooperation with ASEAN, the EU and other markets and reduce dependence on US exports. Accelerate the “Belt and Road” initiative and expand the export share of emerging markets (such as Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America). Strengthen economic and trade cooperation with RCEP and CPTPP member countries, and use regional trade agreements to reduce tariff barriers.

The second is to expand re-export trade channels. During the last round of Sino-US trade friction, re-export trade to ASEAN and Mexico, and ASEAN and Mexico to the United States showed a significant growth trend. Re-exported to the United States through ASEAN and Mexico to circumvent the restrictions on direct trade imposed by Sino-US trade frictions. The rise of this re-export trade model has also provided new development opportunities for neighboring economies and economies such as Mexico.

Then companies go global and optimize the global supply chain layout. Through direct investment and construction of factories in countries such as Vietnam and Mexico to reduce production costs, improve product quality and expand overseas markets, we can achieve a diversified layout of the global supply chain, avoid tariffs and trade barriers imposed by the United States, and improve the overall risk resistance ability.

Trump’s main goal of imposing tariffs is to bring manufacturing back to the United States, thereby increasing the employment rate of white middle- and lower-class Americans. Practical cooperation can be carried out on the premise of reducing tariffs on China, and companies can directly invest and build factories in the United States to drive the recovery of the U.S. manufacturing industry. It can promote the development of the U.S. manufacturing industry through investment, technical cooperation, etc., create jobs for the United States, and help it revitalize its local economy. Manufacturing advantages can complement the U.S. supply chain and help both parties reach a mutually beneficial and win-win situation on economic issues.