Author: Ciaran Lyons, CoinTelegraph; Translated by: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

A cryptocurrency analyst said that despite the recent unstable macroeconomic situation in the United States, Bitcoin will break through the all-time high of $109,000 earlier than expected.

"The market may underestimate how fast Bitcoin soars — potentially hitting record highs before the end of the second quarter,” noted Jamie Coutts, chief cryptocurrency analyst at Real Vision.

He said that this forecast remains valid regardless of whether U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and potential recession concerns are clearer.

On February 2, Bitcoin fell below $100,000, and many market participants blamed the decline in Bitcoin prices on Trump's recent tariffs and uncertainty in U.S. interest rates.

Coutts’ optimistic rebound forecast is based on a relief from the financial environment, a weakening of the dollar and the increase in liquidity by the People’s Bank of China since the beginning of 2025.

"The financial environment eased significantly this month, with the dollar hitting its third-biggest three-day decline since 2015, with interest rates and Treasury volatility falling sharply," he said.

“Liquidity remains at the heart of investing in all asset classes,” he added.

Bitcoin has dropped 3.16% in the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

As of this article, Bitcoin was trading at $85,880, down 3.16% in the past month, according to CoinMarketCap.

Coutts mentioned his March 7 X post, in which he said it is difficult to be “not optimistic” about Bitcoin based on the recent trend of the U.S. dollar index (DXY) through a “historical perspective”.

Based on historical DXY performance, Coutts said that by June 1, Bitcoin’s 90-day forecast ranged from $102,000 in the worst-case scenario to $123,000 in the best-case scenario.

The cap target will rise 13% from the current all-time high of $109,000 set on January 20.

Robbie Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, recently said that Bitcoin is likely to flourish in the macro environment of the recession.

"I don't know if we're going to experience a recession, but the recession will be a big catalyst for Bitcoin," Mitchnick said in an interview with Yahoo Finance on March 19.

At the same time,CryptoQuant said Bitcoin continues to experience the “most bullish situation” since January 2023.

CryptoQuant's bull score index is 20, the lowest since January 2023, indicating a weak Bitcoin market and a slim possibility of a strong rebound in the near future.

Based on historical performance, if the score remains below 40 for a long time, it may indicate that the market conditions are still bearish, similar to the previous bear market stage.