Golden Finance reported that research by data scientist Alex McCullough shows that the prediction market Polymarket has an accuracy rate of 90% when predicting events that occur one month later, and a accuracy rate of 94% four hours before the event. McCullough analyzed Polymarket's historical data and removed extreme probability values ​​and found that the platform slightly but continuously overestimates the probability of events in most probability ranges, which may be affected by factors such as herd psychology, low liquidity and participants' preference for high-risk betting.