As of March 13, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 3% in the past 24 hours, with the current price of $81,148, and Bitcoin market capitalization (BTC.D) has fallen back to 61.68%. Market sentiment is sluggish, with centralized exchange trading volume shrinking 21% to $7.2 trillion last month, and Wall Street is worried about the "Trump sell-off." At the same time, technical indicators show an "oversold" state, derivatives market remains resilient, and Bitcoin ETF capital flows show signs of recovery. Under this complex situation, is Bitcoin in a normal adjustment during a bull market cycle, or is it sliding into a deeper bear market? Based on the latest data and multi-party perspectives, this article will systematically analyze the current market and look forward to future trends from three dimensions: short-term oscillation, potential risks and long-term opportunities.

1. Short-term oscillation: logic and support for bull market adjustment

Normal pullback in bull market cycle

Bitfinex analysts pointed out that price adjustments during bull market cycles are typical phenomena, and the current negative decline may only be temporary fluctuations, rather than the beginning of a long-term bear market. They stressed that Bitcoin trends are closely related to the wider financial markets, especially the performance of stock and bond yields. If global liquidity conditions ease and institutional inflows continue, the support level of $72,000-75,000 may be the cornerstone of the rebound. On March 12, the net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs broke the outflow trend for five consecutive days, with ARK Invest's ETF performing particularly strongly, indicating that institutional demand has not subsided due to short-term volatility. Analysts believe this may be a signal that fund managers are re-aligning their positions for the Fed to turn dovishly.

Cointelegraph further supported this judgment by citing analyst Marcel Pechman's views. He believes that Bitcoin's pullback may be nearing its end due to the stability of derivatives market, weak US dollar and the US budget crisis. Bitcoin fell to a four-month low of $76,700 on March 11, while the S&P 500 fell 6% in a week, and investors' concerns about a global recession increased. However, the adjustment is closer to the mid-term correction in June 2024 (down 31.5% to $49,220 from $71,940) than the bear market crash at the end of 2021 (down 31.5% to $49,220) . A 30% callback is not uncommon in Bitcoin historySee, and no systemic panic triggered.

Technical indicators and resilience of derivatives market

Technical analysis shows positive signals. CryptoQuant analysts said that the market entered the "oversold" range and the selling pressure has been fully released, and even if there is no further sharp decline, it may provide favorable conditions for the rise. In addition, the Bitcoin derivatives market has shown resilience. Pechman noted that despite the price drop, the annualized premium for futures remained at 4.5%, much higher than the level below 0% after the June 2022 crash. The interest rate of perpetual futures financing is close to zero, indicating that the demand for long and short leverage is balanced, and there is no common short-dominated market in bear markets. This is in stark contrast to the scenario at the end of 2021, when the dollar strengthened (DXY rose from 92.4 to 96.0) accompanied investors turning to cash positions, while the current DXY fell back from 109.2 to 104 at the beginning of the year, weakening the hedge appeal.

2. Potential risks: macro-pressure and extreme scenarios

Uncertainty in the macro-economic

Although short-term indicators are optimistic, macro-economic uncertainty casts a shadow on the market. Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni, the Wall Street "big bull" who once predicted the S&P 500 index would reach 7,000 points, has turned cautious recently. He warned that the "bear market may have begun quietly" and noted that "Trump tariff 2.0" could trigger a lightning crash similar to that of 1962 or 1987. Mars Finance reports also show that Wall Street has fallen into uneasiness due to the "Trump sell-off", and the "buy on dips" strategy that dominated the market in the past 20 years has been replaced by "locking profits" and "waiting and watching". Roundhill Investments CEO Dave Mazza described the current purchase as "buying discounted tickets for unknown shows", full of high risks and uncertainty. Ted Motterson, managing director of Robert W Baird & Co., said that the market has entered a "guaranteed model", especially in the fields of technology and encryption, and is facing the common cyclical headwinds in the spring. Centralized exchange trading volume fell 21% to $7.2 trillion, further reflecting liquidity pressure. If the global economyThe crypto market may face greater impact as recession expectations are fulfilled or the trade war escalates in full swing.

Risk of loss of key support levels

Although CryptoQuant regards "oversold" as a buying opportunity, a technical rebound may be suppressed if investor sentiment turns to extreme panic. Historical data show that panic selling is often accompanied by liquidity crises and collapse of confidence. If Bitcoin falls below $74,000 and triggers a chain reaction, short-term fluctuations may evolve into a longer bear market. Bitfinex's optimistic forecasts rely on improvements in global liquidity, but if this premise is not realized, the risks will be significantly amplified.

Eugene Ng Ah Sio proposes a more specific downward scenario from a technical level. He predicts that if MicroStrategy sells out at a massive scale, Bitcoin could fall to $52,000 or even $25,000, down 36% and 70% respectively. For Solana (SOL), he believes that $80 is the key support level, and if it falls below it, it may fall by $25, a drop of more than 80%. Although these extreme bottoms are low, they are not impossible under macro deterioration (such as institutional fund withdrawal or liquidity depletion). The assumption of $25,000 is staggering, but it is still within the reasonable range compared to the 2022 bear market low of $16,000.

BTC.D's misunderstandings and the impact of ETH

BTC.D (the proportion of Bitcoin's market value) is often misunderstood as a market vane. Currently, BTC.D has fallen back to 61.68%, and some people are looking forward to the start of the "copy season". However, the decline in BTC.D is often the result of "BTC rally slowing + altcoin rise" rather than the reason. Its trend is largely driven by Ethereum (ETH) and is highly correlated with the ETH/BTC exchange rate. Eugene has moved ETH out of its portfolio, showing caution about ETH's short-term outlook, which may further drag BTC.D, but may not necessarily indicate an altcoin boom. If investors rely solely on BTC.D to judge trends, they may ignore the dominant role of ETH and the real market dynamics.

3. Long-term opportunities: Turning and market potential

U.S. Turning: From regulatory hostility to strategic reserve

The United States' attitude to digital assets is undergoing a historic change, injecting new momentum into the long-term prospects of Bitcoin. On March 7, President Trump signed an executive order to formally establish the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" and "Digital Asset Stockpile", marking the first time the United States regards Bitcoin as a strategic asset, analogous to traditional reserves such as gold. White House officials called it "Fort Knox in the digital age", emphasizing the scarcity and security of Bitcoin, believing that its fixed supply (21 million) gives strategic value. The executive order stipulates that the reserved Bitcoin will be derived from criminal and civil confiscation assets and cannot be sold, and is intended as a means of long-term storage of value. This reversed the regulatory hostility towards the crypto industry during Biden's period and reflected Trump's determination to fulfill his campaign promises - he had promised to build the United States into a "crypto capital."

On March 11, Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyoming) reintroduced the BITCOIN Act, proposing the United States to purchase 1 million bitcoins (about $80 billion at current prices) over the next five years and write Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plan into law. The bill will also raise funds through the Federal Reserve's net income and the Treasury issuance of new gold certificates (based on current market prices). Lummis said the bill aims to “harness the full potential of digital innovation to solve debt problems while maintaining a competitive advantage in the global economy.” This legislative trend suggests that the United States may further expand its Bitcoin holdings and consolidate its leading position in the global digital asset race.

Lelax macro liquidity: a potential catalyst for global central banks

Improving macro liquidity may be another major driving force for Bitcoin's long-term rise. Arthur Hayes posted on X platform that current market adjustments are normal in a bull market, and he predicted that Bitcoin may bottom out around $70,000, down 36% from an all-time high of $110,000, which is not uncommon in a bull market cycle. He further pointed out that stock markets (especially the S&P 500 SPX and the Nasdaq NDX) may enter a "free decline" phase, triggering a further slowdown in the global economy. However, this pressure may prompt major central banks to take action. Hayes expects the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan to launch easing to stimulate their respective economic recovery.

Hayes' analysis is BitcoinLong-term potential provides a macro perspective. The implementation of easing usually means interest rate cuts, asset purchases or quantitative easing, which will increase market liquidity and reduce risk-free interest rates, thereby pushing up risk asset prices. Bitcoin, as an anti-inflation asset, tends to perform strongly in a liquidity-easing environment. For example, the Fed’s ultra-looseness in 2020-2021 drove Bitcoin to surge from $10,000 to an all-time high of $69,000. Hayes recommends investors "mass entry" at this stage, and although they may miss the absolute bottom, they can avoid long-term shocks and potential unrealized losses. For more cautious investors, he recommends waiting for major central banks to implement easing and then increasing capital investment to reduce risks.

Accelerating the institutionalization process: the convergence of banks and blockchain

The United States' shift is not limited to reserves, but may also drive a wider process of institutionalization. On March 12, Forbes published an article pointing out that digital assets have moved from the edge of the financial system to the core, and traditional banks are increasingly interested in the crypto market. The article proposes that banks in the United States should be allowed to hold mature digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, and manage risks through diversification, hedging strategies and strict exposure restrictions. Banks have responded to volatility in foreign exchange and commodity markets, and similar tools are fully suitable for crypto assets. In addition, blockchain technology can optimize cross-border payments, reduce transaction costs, and drive financial institutions to move towards true 24/7 operations. This modernization potential may attract more banks to enter the market, further enhancing the market legitimacy and liquidity of Bitcoin.

The first crypto summit held by the White House on March 7 also sent a positive signal. Trump expressed support for Congress’s legislation on stablecoin and crypto markets at the summit, calling it a “huge opportunity for economic growth and financial innovation.” Participants included Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy and Brian Armstrong of Coinbase, showing their willingness to work with the crypto industry. "The United States is now a holder of Bitcoin, or even a buyer," said Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong. "This trend could trigger a global "bitcoin reserve race" that further drives its long-term value.

4. Conclusion and investment advice

For investors, the current situation is both a challenge and an opportunity. It is wiser to maintain flexibility before clarifying trends than to blindly buy the bottom or sell. Short-term traders can follow USD 74,000-76,000The gains and losses of the support level are judged by combining the ETF capital flow and DXY trend. Long-term investors should focus on trends and institutional behaviors to avoid being disturbed by short-term fluctuations. As Ed Yardeni said, a bear market may quietly come, but Bitfinex's confidence and derivatives market resilience are also reminding us that the story of a bull market may be far from over.

The next step in Bitcoin depends on the direction of the global economy. At the intersection where the decline and hope are intertwined, prudence and patience may be the best choice at the moment.