Author: Murphy Source: X, @Murphychen888

There are 2 in BTC’s on-chain data analysis The core concepts are "time stamp" and "price stamp". Because the transparency of the blockchain allows us to observe each on-chain transaction and identify two key details: 1. The time when the chip movement occurs: timestamp; 2. The price when the transaction occurs: price stamp;

When we analyze the process of phased trend changes, the data used such as changing hands, profit realization, demand inflow, heat supply, etc. are mainly based on "price On the basis of "poke". And if we want to observe and analyze the timing of the BTC cycle, we need to use "timestamps" more.

Each BTC exists in a certain UTXO, and the timestamp function of UTXO means that each BTC has an age, and this age does not refer to it The time being dug out, but the time from the last move to the current time.

We can distinguish BTC of different currency ages according to the length of time, for example, divide them into 1 week-1 month (1w-1m), or 1 -2 years (1-2y) etc. Usually we classify BTC that has not moved for more than 6 months (more than 155 days to be precise) or more as long-term holders (LTH) chips, and others are classified as short-term holders (STH) chips.

Looking back at the entire development history of BTC, LTH will distribute chips to STH every bull market cycle; at this time, the proportion of wealth owned by the "old currency group" Begins to gradually decrease (green dotted line in Figure 1);

(Figure 1)< /p>

In the bear market, the chips returned from STH to LTH. At this time, the proportion of wealth owned by the "new currency group" began to gradually decrease (green dotted line in Figure 2);

(Figure 2)

You can see in Figure 1 (Old Coin) and FigureThe waveform in 2 (new currency) is exactly the opposite. I call this the "pendulum effect" of the BTC cycle; the market always follows this endogenous law and continues under the conversion of supply and demand, just like a pendulum, starting over and over again.

Among the large LTH groups, the two groups that have the greatest impact on cycle conversion and can even play a decisive role are the two coin ages of 1-2y and 2-3y. of chips (diamond hands in the cycle). We can roughly infer the "time stamp" of this bull market cycle by observing the changing trend of this data.

Figure 3 below is the realized market capitalization ratio data of 1-2y & 2-3y. Let's look at it as a whole first. Whenever the yellow (1-2y) and green (2-3y) waveforms reach their peak, it means that the market is about to exit the bear market and enter the early stage of the bull market. As time goes by, the waveform begins to gradually decrease, indicating that the group is distributing chips to new investors entering the market.

(Figure 3)

When the waveform reaches the bottom and the slope begins to slow down, it means that the market is in the middle and late stages of the bull market. This can also be considered as the "top range" of the bull market. You must know that these two groups are the most experienced investors in the market. For example, the BTC purchased by MSTR 3 years ago, that is, between December 2021 and January 2022, belongs to this group. It was STH when I bought it, but it became LTH today.

The current data has dropped from the peak of 56% to 12.3% (green dotted line in the figure), while the lowest values ​​of the ratio in the first two cycles were 1.3 respectively. % (17-18 cycles) and 6.6% (21-22 cycles). Considering that more and more cross-cycle institutional investors like MSTR are joining the currency holding group, I think the minimum proportion of 1-2y & 2-3y in this cycle should be higher than the 6.6% in the previous cycle. It is expected to be large The probability is between 7%-10%.

If we draw a standard line (see the red dotted line in Figure 1) based on the current value (point A), we can see that in the first two cycles When the indicators drop to the same position, the price of BTC is in the top range, and the relative position is in the middle and late stages of the bull market. As time goes by, when the curve gradually bottoms out and begins to turn upward, and returns to the original height again (point B), it usually meansThe bull market is over.

From A to B is a "smile curve". The entire process took 17 months in the 17-18 cycle and 12 months in the 21-22 cycle. , and according to the bottom-end probability mentioned in the above analysis, this cycle will be higher than 6.6%, so I think the probability of the total duration of the "smile curve" being less than or equal to 12 months is greater (entering a bear market).

At the same time, we can see that the time from point A to the last high point of the cycle in the 17-18 cycle is 6 months (Mark 1 in Figure 3); The time for the 21-22 cycle from point A to the last high point of the cycle is 10 months (mark 2 in Figure 3).

Since the 17-18 cycle is a very special sharp top, it has low reference value; the more worthy reference should be the 21-22 cycle double top cycle; therefore I think the probability of this cycle from the current point A to the future point B is less than/equal to 10 months is greater, perhaps around 9-10 months.

If this inference is true, then the end of this bull market cycle will roughly occur between September and October of 2025.

Attention! All the above probabilistic inferences are only my personal subjective opinions and are not objective feedback of the data!

After talking about the relationship between coin age conversion and cycle, we are looking at it from another angle - metaphysics! Three-line co-frequency resonance curve

I did some rough statistics and found that among the questions sent to me privately in the background, the "three-line integration" indicator was mentioned most frequently. Everyone seems to be obsessed with this; even though I know this indicator has shown miraculous accuracy many times this cycle, I still don’t think we can put the cart before the horse. You should first look at the objective data, and then use the "three lines in one" for reference.

(Figure 4)

Based on the information feedback in the picture, I give the following more subjective interpretations. Friends, please treat them rationally and should not use this as the only basis for judgment!

1. At present, the red line has reached a critical pointSexual inflection point. From the position point of view, the red line is closer to the blue line and a little further away from the green line above. There is no consistency in the three-line bonding.

In other words, from mid-to-late December to mid-January, there will be three possible deviations: continue to break new highs (mark 1 in Figure 4)/ Consolidation (mark 2 in Figure 4)/callback (mark 3 in Figure 4); but looking at the overall trend, both the green line and the blue line are in a callback state during this stage. Therefore, I personally think that the probability of 3 and 2 is greater than 1;

Emotionally, I prefer 2, and 1 is the least likely; of course , a moderate correction will also be more conducive to the continuation of this trend.

2. Many friends may remember that in my previous analysis of the "three lines in one" indicator, I mentioned: "In 2024.12- Around 2025.1, MVRV will have a sharp correction." Based on the current comprehensive observation of data on other chains, this so-called "large scale" may not be as big as imagined. There are two reasons:

a. The current chip structure distribution on the chain forms a huge column of 600,000 BTC at $97,000, and at 9.4w- There are nearly 2 million BTC accumulated in the 100,000 USD range, creating a potential support range.

b. Judging from the current new demand data, although there has been attenuation, it has not quickly dropped below the zero axis. In other words, there is still a certain scale of demand in the market and it can maintain a certain degree of balance.

3. The green and blue lines in the picture are bonded at mark 4, and the bonding position is significantly higher than the current one (mark 4 in Figure 4) , which means there will be another wave of market prices from March to April 2025.

I calculated based on the current two data of "average cost of changing hands on the chain" and "average cost of active investors". From March to April, BTC's There is a certain probability that the price will reach more than 120,000 US dollars, but not more than 150,000 US dollars (since the cost of changing hands will change, this calculation needs to calibrate the data every 2 weeks).

4. If there is a rebound in March-April, this may be the end of this trend. From now on, it will depend on macro changes.

5. After this, the market may enter a 4-5 month consolidation period (marked 5 in the figure). In the early stages of this stage, the green line and the blue line Line consistency is downward; but separation begins to occur in the middle, so there is also greater uncertainty here. But in general, the high point of the wide consolidation will not exceed the peak of the March-April wave.

6. There will be the last wave of this cycle in September and October 2025 (marked 6 in the picture). In the early stage of this stage , there is a large separation between the green line and the blue line. If the red line is close to the blue line by then, the high point of this market will be higher than the peak in March-April; if the red line is close to the green line, the high point will be lower than the peak in March-April.

At the same time, we see that the green and blue lines are bonded in the part outlined by the red dotted circle, and the position here is lower than the peak in March-April. Perhaps this means there is a greater chance that the September-October high will be lower than the March-April high.

What’s interesting is that the conclusion of observing the “metaphysical indicators” is highly consistent with the conclusion of the temporal inference based on currency age conversion mentioned above. If this is really the case, it means that the highest point of this cycle will appear in March-April 2025, and the high point in September-October 2025 will be the last "top" of this cycle, and The height is not necessarily higher than the front (I personally prefer to be closer to the front height, not necessarily significantly higher).

From a trading perspective, once I enter the top range, I still insist that as long as there is a signal of phased decline, I will resolutely implement trading discipline and do a good job in batches. Take profit plan, even if there may be higher highs later (this is a matter of probability). For some of the positions vacated after taking profits in BTC, you may consider switching to some high-quality ALTs, hoping to find a second growth curve that outperforms the market in the second half of the bull market.