Traders expect recession risk to force the Fed to boost the economy by cutting interest rates
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Golden Finance reported that traders in futures and options markets have bet on the Fed's rate cut this year will exceed expectations due to the Trump administration's radical policy agenda.
Washington’s tough remarks on tariffs have pushed investors to safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds, which will become more attractive if signs of economic hardship continue to increase in the near future. On Monday, the rise in the possibility of a recession stimulated new demand for short- and long-term U.S. Treasury futures.
Options traders expect recession risks to increase pressure on the Fed, forcing it to boost the economy by cutting interest rates in the coming months. This has led to a growing demand for two-year U.S. Treasury call options that would pay off if the Fed is more aggressive on interest rates.
The premiums of these U.S. Treasury call options have risen to their highest since September last year, when slowing job growth has sparked concerns about a slowdown in Biden's final months as president. (Jin Shi)