Author: Spirit, Golden Finance

Introduction

On March 7, 2025, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) issued the "Interpretation Letter 1183", marking a major turning point in the regulatory framework of the US banking industry in the field of crypto. This new policy revokes the requirement that banks need to obtain regulatory approval in advance for conducting crypto business, allowing banks and the Federal Savings Association to directly participate in crypto asset custody, issuance of US dollar stablecoins, and run blockchain nodes. This implementation not only paved the way for the integration of traditional finance and crypto ecosystems, but also caused violent fluctuations in market sentiment and subtle fluctuations in Bitcoin prices in the past 24 hours. This article will take OCC as the core and deeply analyze its impact on the crypto industry, and combine current market sentiment and changes in Bitcoin transaction data to explore the multiple significance of this event.

1. OCC's core and breakthroughs

Details

The core of the new OCC policy lies in "de-obstacleization". Specifically:

Crypto Asset Custody: Banks can directly store crypto asset private keys for customers, providing higher security than existing wallets.

Stablecoin Issuance: Allows banks to hold stablecoin reserves and issue USD-pegged digital currencies, competing with USDT, USDC, etc.

Blockchain node: Banks can become validators of distributed ledgers, directly participate in network consensus, and improve the security and credibility of blockchain.

At the same time, the OCC revoked the "cautionary statement" jointly issued with the FDIC and Fed in 2023, which had curbed banks from entering the field by emphasizing the liquidity and market risks of crypto assets. This adjustment clearly requires banks to carry out crypto business under the traditional risk management framework and no longer set up additional regulatory barriers.

Historical context

Since the OCC first allowed banks to provide crypto custody services in 2020, U.S. regulators' attitude towards encryption has undergone a shift from cautious temptation to gradual opening up. The 2023 caution statement was once considered “Operation Chokepoint 2.0The continuation of "the continuation of banks and crypto companies has restricted the cooperation between banks and crypto companies. Now, under the promotion of Trump (the executive order for Bitcoin strategic reserves signed on March 7), the new OCC policy is interpreted as the fulfillment of the promise of "end restriction on crypto banking", marking the shift of regulation from "containment" to "convergence".

Breakthrough significance

Accelerating institutional entry: As the pillar of traditional finance, its participation will inject stable funds and technical support into the crypto market, which may promote the long-term value of assets such as Bitcoin.

Reshaping of the competitive landscape: stablecoins issued by banks may challenge existing giants (such as Tether) and reconstruct the DeFi and payment ecosystem.

Decentralization Challenge: The joining of bank nodes may increase the risk of network centralization, causing controversy among the community about the "decentralization spirit".

2. Instant response to market sentiment

X platform sentiment observation

Discussions on social media X in the past 24 hours have reflected the market's complex sentiment towards OCC:

Optimistic: Users such as @0xJamesTang called it "invisible nuclear bomb in a bear market", believing that bank nodes and stablecoins will pave the way for institutional funds to enter the market, which will benefit the crypto ecosystem in the long run.

Prudential: Some users (such as @jianguotz) pointed out that although they bring regulatory clarity, they may also intensify the contradiction between decentralization and environmental issues, and the short-term effect remains to be seen.

Psychological: The market liquidity sluggish over the weekend was superimposed. During the digestive period, user @otakustw mentioned that "bitcoin continues to fall, altcoins may have opportunities", reflecting the uncertainty about the short-term trend.

Emotional drivers

Favoritable expectations: OCC is regarded as the "endorsement of traditional finance", boosting investors' confidence in institutional participation.

Weekend effect: March 9 is Sunday, the market trading volume is low, and sentiment fluctuations have not been completely converted into price momentum.

Uncertainty: BanksThe specific implementation plan has not been clarified yet, and investors are waiting for more details.

3. Bitcoin price fluctuations and market dynamics

The Bitcoin price briefly rose to US$92,000 after the release of the OCC (March 7), and then fell by about 2%-3% due to the low trading volume on the weekend.

Trading volume changes: The average daily trading volume shrinks on weekends, lower than the working day level, reflecting the market's wait-and-see sentiment.

Altcoin performance: Ethereum may adjust with Bitcoin, while some Layer-2 tokens (such as ARB, OP) rebounded slightly (5%-10%) due to bank node positive effects.

Reasons for fluctuations

Short-term pressure: insufficient liquidity on weekends is limited. Positive benefits are realized immediately, retail investors' selling has intensified adjustments.

Medium-term potential: If banks run nodes or issue stablecoins in the next few weeks, they may push up Bitcoin’s computing power and network activity, supporting prices to rebound.

External factors: OCC is superimposed with Trump's executive order on March 7, and the market expects institutional funds to gradually enter the market in Q2.

4. The long-term impact of OCC

Industry level

Banking role reshaping: Traditional banks may become "new players" in the crypto market, providing custody, payment and node services, and competing with CEXs such as Coinbase and Binance.

Stablecoin Market: Bank-issued US dollar stablecoins may weaken Tether (USDT) dominance and promote compliance competition.

Regulatory coordination: The new OCC policy may prompt the SEC, CFTC and other institutions to accelerate the formulation of encryption rules and form a unified framework.

Market level

Fund structure: The proportion of institutional funds may rise from the current 30% to 40%-50%, reducing market volatility.

User growth: bankingTraditional users (far more than encrypted native users) will accelerate the popularity of the industry, with millions of new users likely to be added.

Risk Point: Bank centralization may trigger a community rebound, and decentralization and compliance needs need to be balanced.

Global Perspective

The United States' loosening may stimulate other (such as the EU and Japan) to adjust its crypto-regulatory stance and accelerate the competition between global central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and stablecoins. Digital RMB (DC/EP) may further make efforts in cross-border payments to hedge the impact of the United States.

5. Market sentiment and Bitcoin’s future outlook

Short-term (1-2 weeks)

Emotion: The market may gradually turn to optimism after digesting the details, paying attention to the first batch of pilot news of banks.

Price: Bitcoin may fluctuate in the range of 90,000 to 95,000 US dollars. If it breaks through 95,000, it may challenge the 100,000 mark.

Medium term (3-6 months)

Emotion: Institutional entry and stablecoin issuance will boost confidence, but community concerns about centralization may cause controversy.

Price: If bank nodes operate on a large scale, the increase in Bitcoin computing power may push the price to 110,000-120,000 US dollars.

Long-term (1-2 years)

Emotion: The integration of encryption and traditional finance has deepened, market sentiment has become stable, and we pay attention to global regulatory coordination.

Price: Bitcoin's status as a strategic reserve asset is consolidated, or may be stable at more than US$150,000.

Conclusion

The implementation of OCC is an important turning point in the crypto industry in 2025. It not only breaks the barriers between banks and the crypto ecosystem, but also injects new momentum into Bitcoin's move from marginal assets to mainstream finance. Market sentiment and price fluctuations in the past 24 hours show that investors are still waiting and watching in the short term, but the long-term potential cannot be ignored. In the future, with the specific implementation of banks and the response of global regulation, the crypto market may usher in a new round of growth cycle. The evolution of Bitcoin is moving from "digital gold" to "war", and in this process, the interweaving of market sentiment and price fluctuations will continue to provide us with an observation window.