JPMorgan raises 10-year Japanese Treasury yield forecast to 1.7% from 1.55%
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According to Golden Finance, JPMorgan Securities raised its forecast for the year-end 10-year Treasury bond yield from 1.55% at the end of January to 1.7%, believing that US policy may bring various risks. The Bank of Japan is predicted to raise interest rates in June and December, but the actions that the U.S. may complicate the situation; if tariffs put pressure on global economic growth, it may hinder the Bank of Japan's rate hikes, but if Japan is accused of letting the yen devalue, it may rush to raise interest rates, Takashi Yamawaki, head of fixed income research and strategist Hiroki Yamamoto wrote in a March 10 report.
The correlation between the trend of ultra-long-term Japanese Treasury bond yields and the Bank of Japan's policy interest rates may disappear; after the Bank of Japan raises interest rates above 1%, the long-term Treasury bond yields may fluctuate sideways. JPMorgan Chase also raised its year-end forecasts for 20-year and 30-year Japanese Treasury bond yields to 2.35% and 2.65% from 2.15% and 2.40% respectively.