ANZ: Fed may cut interest rates further even if tariffs increase inflation
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Golden Finance reported that the Trump administration has confirmed that the tariffs imposed on imported goods from Mexico and Canada will take effect on March 4 and the reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to take effect on April 2.
Brian Martin, head of economics at G3 at ANZ Bank, said that if the impact of tariffs remains unchanged for the remainder of the calendar year, it could keep the U.S. core PCE inflation at around 2.6%-2.9%, compared with an estimated 2.4% before the tariff.
He added that these estimates did not take into account the possible second round impact or offset the weakness in demand. Still, Martin said the Fed may remain patient and pay attention to one-time price increases. ANZ insists that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 75 basis points in the cycle and resume interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025.