Original author: Alvis, MarsBit

"February 20, 2025, this time will Written in the history of cryptocurrency—either the moment when Pi Network topped the "civilian blockchain" or the starting point of the bursting of the largest air coin bubble in history. ”

Behind the data is the two worlds of ice and fire:

- Fanatic supporters: 50 million worldwide Users, more than 18 million people passed KYC verification, Taiwanese merchants even used Pi coins to buy milk tea and pay rent;

- Questioner: Main Network has been delayed for 6 years, Tokens cannot be traded, and the "IOU Futures" listed on the exchange is accused of being hyped.

In this whirlpool of controversy, is Pi Network a technological revolution or an elaborate capital game? This article will use the latest data and ecological progress to disassemble its value logic and potential risks.

1. Positive outlook: Three major breakthrough points for popular blockchain 1. User base: the "traffic nuclear bomb" that crushes traditional public chains

Pi Network Creation The largest user network in the history of encryption:

- 50 million registered users, far exceeding Ethereum (less than 5 million active users among 120 million addresses); p>

- 18 million KYC certified users, of which more than 8 million have been moved to the closed main network, and it is expected to exceed 10 by February 20Migration target of 0 million;

- Asian dominance: 1.34 million users in South Korea exceed the number of local users, and Vietnam and the Philippines rank among the top three in the world .

This user scale makes it natural ecological incubation capability—even if only 1% of users participate in the development, it can give birth to 50,000 DApps (currently only 80 mainnet applications).

2. Technology democratization: the fusion of mobile phone mining and stellar consensus

Pi Network tries to lower the threshold for blockchain with two major innovations:

- Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP): abandons Bitcoin's energy-intensive PoW, and realizes energy-saving consensus through the Federal Byzantine Agreement (FBA), and mobile phones can participate in verification;

< p style="text-align: left;">-- Hierarchical role system: From "Pioneer" (Daily check-in mining) to "node" (running full nodes), users obtain tokens based on their contributions, forming from the bottom on governance structure.

This design allows blockchain to reach non-technical people for the first time - housewives, students, and retired elderly people to participate, breaking the "geek exclusive" industry barriers.

3. Realistic application: From Taiwan’s milk tea shop to cross-border payment

Although the main network is not open, Pi Network has explored a unique offline scenario:

- Taiwan business district experiment: More than 200 merchants accept Pi coins payment, from catering to real estate rental, 1 Pi≈25-30 New Taiwan dollars (about 0.8-1 US dollars) ;

- Cross-border remittance test: Filipino workers transfer money to their hometown through Pi wallet, and the handling fee is only 1/10 of traditional banks;

- Developer incentive: 80 mainnet applications cover education, medical care, and logistics. For example, "Pi Health" uses anonymous medical data to train AI diagnostic models.

If the open network runs smoothly, these scenarios may be upgraded from edge experiments to global financial inclusive infrastructure.

2. Negative disputes: Trust deficit and valuation bubble 1. Six-year history of delays: The danger of trust when the wolf comesThe main network schedule of Pi Network can be called "delay textbook".

Pi Network was launched in 2019 and initially supports cryptocurrency mining based on smartphones and has gone through several stages including Testnet, node planning and closed masters net. Currently, the project is in the transition to an open network and is expected to undergo mainnet migration in early 2025.

· March 14, 2019: Officially released - Pi Network was officially launched on "Pi Day" (March 14), with the mathematical constant π (3.14 )name. The initial version of the mobile app allows users (called "Pioneers") to mine Pi cryptocurrencies directly from their smartphones.

· March 14, 2020: Testnet phase launches - On the occasion of Pi Network's first anniversary, the project enters the Testnet phase, marking the move towards decentralization An important step. This phase supports the deployment of global distributed nodes, enabling community developers to test blockchains and create applications using Test-Pi.

· End of 2020: Node Plan Introduction - Pi Network has launched a Node Plan that allows users to run network nodes on their personal computers. This move strengthens Pioneers' contribution to cybersecurity and transaction verification, driving decentralization.

· December 2021: The closed main network is launched - Pi Network has entered the closed main network stage. The main network is officially launched, but it is still protected by the firewall, blocking the outside world. connect. During this period, users can complete KYC (authentication) and migrate Pi to the real-time main network, while the community builds applications and utility tools within the closed network.

· October 2023: Roadmap releases- Pi core team unveils a milestone-based roadmap detailing past achievements and current projects and future plans. This roadmap enhances transparency and outlines key steps towards an open mainnet.

· December 2024: Open Network Update - Pi Network Team Promotion, the open mainnet, which was originally scheduled to be launched by the end of 2024, will be postponed to the first quarter of 2025. This decision is designed to allow more users to complete KYC certification and migrate their tokens to the mainnet to ensure that the ecosystem is more inclusive and secure.

· January 2025: Mainnet migration progress - As of January 2025, Pi Network has more than 18 million users completed KYC certification, of which more than 8 million users Its tokens have been moved to the main network. The team extended the grace period for KYC and mainnet migrations to January 31 to further support the transition.

Although the team attributed the delay to KYC audit and ecological construction, the community questioned its intentional delay to maintain the scarcity of tokens.

2. valuation doubts about 100 billion valuation: a fatal trap after complete dilution

calculated based on the maximum supply of 100 billion pieces, if the Pi coins reach 1 USD, its complete dilution Valuation (FDV) will be as high as $100 billion — more than one-third of Ethereum’s current market value ($315 billion). But this faces two major paradoxes:

- Circulation black hole: Currently, only 2 billion Pi has been moved to the main network, and the remaining 98 billion need to be gradually released through mining. , If the team controls the unlocking rhythm, it may cause panic in selling pressure;

- Insufficient application scenarios: Most of the current 80 DApps are tool-based applications, lacking DeFi and NFT In other value capture scenarios, the ecological hematopoiesis ability is doubtful.

3. Regulation and Privacy: A Double-edged Sword of Compliance

Pi Network's compliance strategy hides risks:

- KYC Over-collection: Users need to submit ID card, facial recognition, and residence certificate, which far exceeds the requirements of conventional projects and poses a potential risk of data leakage;

- Regulatory encirclement and suppression risks: If the SEC determines Pi currency as a securities (similar to XRP litigation), its US ecosystem may collapse instantly.

3. Open Internet launch: Four key verification indicators

February 20, 2025 is not only a technological milestone, but also a value touchstone for Pi Network. The following four indicators will be determinedDetermine its success or failure:

1. Exchange liquidity test

- Real trading volume: If mainstream exchanges such as HTX and Binance open Pi currency spot trading, you need to observe whether it is necessary to "Crash as soon as it goes online" occurs;

- Price anchor: The current Taiwan P2P price (about US$1) and IOU futures price (US$48.3) are very different, and the price difference is The convergence direction indicates market confidence.

2. Decentralization of nodes

- Verify node distribution: If the first 10 nodes control more than 50% of computing power, it will violate the original intention of "civilian blockchain";

- Resistance to censorship: Can open networks resist level firewall blockades, especially in sensitive areas such as Southeast Asia.

3. Developer migration wave

- DApp explosion speed: Will the main network applications exceed 500 in the next 3 months, and at least one phenomenon-level application will appear; /p>

- Cross-chain interoperability: The progress of asset bridging with Ethereum and Solana determines whether it can integrate into the mainstream ecosystem.

4. Token Economic Model

- Inflation Control: Whether the mining release rate leads to hyperinflation, refer to Helium's market value collapse caused by excessive token issuance; p>

- Burning mechanism: The in-app fee destruction ratio determines whether Pi coins can enter the deflation cycle.

IV. Future deduction: Three possible scenarios Scenario 1: Utopia comes true (probability 30%)

- Key assumptions: zero failure of main network, daily average of exchange Trading volume exceeds US$1 billion, and a million-level DApp appeared;

- Price forecast: Pi coin stands firm at US$5, FDV reaches US$500 billion, becoming one of the cryptocurrencies Top five in market value;

- Social impact: Become a developer inclusive financial infrastructure, shake SWIFT hegemony.

Scenario 2: Moderate growth (probability 50%)

- Key assumption: technology is stable but applicationMediocre, annual inflation rate is controlled within 15%;

- Price forecast: Pi currency fluctuates at USD 0.5-2, and its market value is comparable to Dogecoin (about 300

- Social impact: maintaining the status of regional payment tools, similar to Vietnam's MoMo e-wallet.

Scenario 3: Bubble burst (probability 20%)

- Key assumptions: main network downtime, regulatory crackdown, team selling tokens;

- Price forecast: Pi coin plummeted to below 0.1 US dollars, and the community protected its rights on a large scale;

- Social impact: triggered A global crisis of trust in the "zero cost mining" model.

5. Conclusion: A social experiment related to blockchain belief

The essence of Pi Network is a social collaboration experiment—it attracts a large number of people with minimalist interactions. Users, build community consensus with delayed satisfaction, and challenge elitism with civilian narratives. Its success or failure is not only related to the price of tokens, but also will verify two ultimate propositions:

1. Does blockchain require technical thresholds? If 50 million novice users can shape a prosperous ecosystem, large-scale adoption of Web3 will no longer be far away;

2. Does value have to come from scarcity? If the Pi coins that are mined with zero cost are recognized by the market, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative may face challenges.

Personal opinion:

Pi Network's open network launch is the most suspenseful in 2025 Encryption events. Its huge user base and real application scenarios have potential to subvert, but the six-year delay history and valuation bubble are like the sword of Damocles. In the short term, price fluctuations may occur after the main network is online due to the release of liquidity; in the long term, its fate depends on whether it can evolve from a "social fission artifact" to a "value creation engine." If the team can restrain greed and focus on the ecosystem, Pi coins may really become the "civilian currency" in the crypto world; if the mistake of the capital market is repeated, this experiment will become the most expensive lesson in blockchain history.