‍‍‍‍ Our mission is to ensure that universal artificial intelligence (AGI) benefits all mankind.

Now, some systems close to AGI are emerging, so it is crucial to understand the current era.

AGI is a concept with ambiguous definition, but usually refers to a system that can solve complex problems at the human level in multiple fields.

Humans are born to creators of tools and have a strong desire to explore and innovate, and it is this driving force that drives the world forward. Every generation stands on the shoulders of their predecessors and invents more powerful tools - from power, transistors, computers, the Internet, to the upcoming AGI.

Although the pace of human innovation is sometimes fast and sometimes slow, overall, our society is moving towards higher levels of prosperity at a speed beyond imagination. Almost every aspect of people's lives has been improved.

In a sense, AGI is just another cornerstone on the ladder of human technological progress. But from another perspective, its appearance marks the arrival of a special moment—we have to admit, “This time, the situation is really different.”

The economic growth in front of us looks amazing, and we can even imagine: the future It can cure all diseases, have more time to spend with your family, and can fully realize everyone's creativity.

Perhaps in another decade, maybe everyone on earth will be able to surpass the most successful people today.

Our understanding of AI is evolving rapidly, and the economic influence of AI is gradually emerging. During this process, we observed three important trends: 1. The intelligence level of AI models depends roughly on the pair of resources consumed by their training and operation number. These resources mainly include training computing power, data and inference computing power. In other words, the more money you invest, the more predictable and sustainable and effective the AI’s capability improvement will be. At present, the relevant expansion rules have been verified in multiple orders of magnitude.

2. The cost of AI usage is reduced every yearReduced by about 10 times to promote popularization of applications. We see the cost of using AI is declining at an alarming rate. For example, from GPT-4 in early 2023 to GPT-4o in mid-2024, unit computing costs have dropped by about 150 times. In contrast, Moore's Law states that processor performance doubles every 18 months, and the decline in AI costs far exceeds this level, bringing more drastic changes.

3. The linear improvement of the intelligence level often brings super exponential economic returns. This means that capital investment in AI will continue to accelerate growth for the foreseeable future, as returns far exceed investment.

If these three trends continue, their impact on society will be extremely far-reaching.

In addition, we are now starting to launch AI agents or AI agents. As AI agents are gradually put into practical applications, they may be like virtual colleagues in the future. Integrate into human work.

It is conceivable that the future AI engineer agent will be able to complete most of the tasks a software engineer at a top enterprise can accomplish in a few days.

While it will not have the most groundbreaking innovative ideas, it requires human supervision and guidance, may perform well on some tasks and may make mistakes on others, but overall, it is capable enough to do many professional jobs.

Let's go further, suppose we have not only one such agent, but 1,000, or even 1 million? Imagine what kind of changes will such an agent be applied to various knowledge-based industries?

From the economics perspective, AI may become a scientific breakthrough that penetrates various fields like transistors. Today, we don’t deliberately focus on transistors or companies that make transistors, but they have been deeply integrated into our computers, TVs, cars, toys and other devices to make everything smarter.

Of course, society will not undergo drastic changes overnight. In 2025, people's lifestyle will generally be similar to 2024. We will still fall in love, start families, attack hard on the Internet, go outdoor hiking, etc.

However, the future is in ways that cannot be ignoredAs we approach, changes in social and economic structures will be huge in the long run.

As AGI develops, we must find new ways to create value, and perhaps future work will be very different from today's work. Willpower, subjective initiative and adaptability will become particularly important, and it will be even more important to decide correctly what to do and how to move forward in a changing world.

AGI will not weaken individual influence, but will become the greatest "lever" of human will, allowing individuals to have unprecedented abilities and influence.

Of course, the impact of AI is not evenly balanced. Some industries may change less, and scientific advancements are expected to be much faster than today, and this impact of AGI may outweigh everything else.

In the future, the prices of many commodities will drop significantly (currently, smart and energy costs are the main factors that restrict the development of many industries), but luxury goods and land are scarce The price of resources may rise instead.

The development path of technology has been relatively clear, but how to integrate AGI into society still requires a thoughtful public and social consensus. Therefore, we continue to launch AI products so that society and technology can evolve together.

AI will gradually penetrate into all areas of the economy and society, and people will expect everything to be Become smart.

We may need to give individuals more control over AI technology, such as more open source, and weigh the relationship between security and individual empowerment.

We always insist on being cautious, although some unwelcome important decisions and restrictions may be made in terms of AGI security. But overall, as we gradually approach AGI, we think it is crucial to be more inclined to give individuals more autonomy.

One ​​other possibility, however, is that AI is exploited by authoritarianism, depriving individuals of their freedom through large-scale surveillance, which is obviously not the direction we want to see.

We always emphasize that the benefits of AGI should benefit everyone widely.

CalendarHistorically, technological progress often improves indicators such as health and economic prosperity, but does not automatically lead to more equitable distribution. This means that we need new ways of thinking to ensure the fairness of technology.

One ​​of the key issues is that the balance between capital and labor may be broken, so we may need to intervene early.

For example, we can consider some seemingly "radical" ideas, such as providing a certain computing budget to everyone around the world so that everyone can use AI efficiently , or reduce the cost of intelligence as much as possible to make it popular.

Our vision is that by 2035, the intelligent resources that anyone can master can match the wisdom of the entire human race in 2025, and everyone can freely control it. Infinite wisdom to realize one's imagination.

At present, there are still a large number of talents who are unable to fully display their talents due to lack of resources, and if we can change this, the explosion of global creativity will bring immeasurable great welfare.