As we stand at the forefront of an unprecedented new era of growth, ARK Invest's "Big Ideas 2025" articulates the five ever-evolving technology-enabled innovation platforms today Complex convergence: artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, public blockchain and multi-microscopy sequencing. These platforms are driving exponential advances in various industries and catalyzing step-by-step changes in global economic growth.

ARK Invest's 2025 report proposes 11 big ideas that illustrate the huge changes that are taking place today that are expected to significantly increase productivity and revolutionize the industry , and create long-term investment opportunities with a profound impact on investors, businesses and society as a whole.

According to this, we sorted out the 2025 report about AI Agent, stablecoins, and public blockchains, presenting a view of this type from the perspective of Wall Street Funds The way of the problem. This perspective allows us to get rid of the current PVP situation in the crypto market, and look at the real benefits of innovative AI Agents, stablecoins, public blockchains, and future trends.

TakeAways:

AI Agent will change the logic of people's search and shopping, and will be carried by digital wallets;

Digital wallet can further integrate the savings, lending, insurance, investment, consumption and other functions in traditional bank financial services. Through the innovative paradigm of AI Agent, the value chain of global e-commerce and digital consumption of downstream platforms can be moved upstream. ;

Combined with the utility of AI, the valuation of digital wallet companies will be improved. Importantly, here digital wallets can not only cover the vast existing user base of Web2, but also form a closed-loop of value through AI Agent, but also seamlessly connect to innovative applications of Web3, bringing greater economic benefits to users;

The annual trading volume of stablecoins has approached the trading volume of Visa and Mastercard, and their supply volume and active stablecoin address number hit record highs in 2024;

Innovations around blockchain-based stablecoins will emerge in endlessly and become one of the important ways to export US dollars. It is expected that by 2030, the market value of stablecoins may grow to 1.4 trillion yuan USD;

In this field, with the continuous improvement of innovative financial infrastructure and the integration with traditional financial infrastructure, coupled with the help of AI, it will inevitably come from the traditional financial level See more investments and mergers and acquisitions.

1. Five innovation platforms to accelerate economic growth

The growth and changes of the macroeconomic are in line with historical laws. Since the beginning of human history, the economy has stagnated for 100,000 years, and innovation (particularly writing) allowed the empire to connect the continents together, thus quadrupled the real growth rate in 1000 AD. Since then, agricultural innovation has increased population density and specialized labor, resulting in doubled growth rate in 1500 to 0.3% per year.

In the 400 years before 1900, as the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution swept the world, annual GDP growth doubled again to 0.6%. After that, the second industrial revolution marked by electrification, cars and telephones kicked off modernization and has increased its growth rate by fivefold to an average of 3% over the past 125 years.

Today, technological breakthroughs in the fields of artificial intelligence and intelligent robots may increase productivity again and push economic growth to a higher level in the next 5 to 10 years. By 2030, ARK Invest expects growth to reach 7.3%, relative to 3.1% of the IMF.

In this context, it includes multiple technology platforms such as artificial intelligence and public blockchain. Convergence is increasing, with network density growing by 30% over the past year.

PublicBlockchains

After mass adoption of public blockchains, all currencies and contracts may be moved to the public blockchain, thus enabling verification of the scarcity of digital assets and proof of ownership. Traditional financial systems may reconfigure assets to accommodate the rise of cryptocurrencies and smart contracts. These technologies increase transparency, reduce the impact of capital and regulatory controls, and reduce contract execution costs.

HereIn a world like this, as more and more assets become more easily monetized, businesses and consumers gradually adapt to the new financial infrastructure, digital wallets that concern everyone's assets will become increasingly important.

AI

As the development of data, artificial intelligence computing systems and software can solve difficult problems, automate knowledge work, and accelerate the integration of artificial intelligence technology into each Economic sector. Adoption of Neural Network should be more important than electrification and could create hundreds of trillions of dollars in value. At scale, these systems will require unprecedented computing resources, and AI-specific computing hardware will dominate the next generation cloud data centers that train and operate AI models.

The potential of end users is obvious: AI-powered group of smart devices will penetrate into people's lives and change the way they consume, work and play. AI adoption should change every industry, influence every business, and catalyse every innovation platform.

2. AI Agent Redefines consumer interaction and enterprise work business processes

AI Agent (AI Agent) understands intentions through natural language, uses reasoning and appropriate context to plan, and uses tools to take action to achieve intentions, and improve through iteration and continuous learning. With the birth of smarter AI models, AI Agent will use more and more complex tools to complete higher-value tasks.

AI Agent will accelerate the adoption of more digital applications and bring epoch-making changes in human-computer interaction. Whether in hardware sales or software subscriptions, AI Agent combined with it will drive the large-scale application of AI. For example, embedding AI Agent in an operating system of consumer-grade hardware allows consumers to delegate all discoveries and research to AI, saving a lot of time.

2.1AI Agent will change the logic of people's search and shopping

AIAgents may become the gateway for personal searches, and if searches turn to personal AI Agents, their advertising revenue may surge. By 2030, ARK Invest believes that AI advertising revenue may account for more than 54% of the $1.1 trillion digital advertising market, directly snatching market share from traditional search giants like Google.

Digital advertising. Well-curated AI feedback results will provide opportunities for digital advertising. If the search business shifts to individual AI Agents, AI Agent’s advertising revenue may surge. ARK Invest believes that by 2030, AI advertising revenue will account for more than 54% of the $1.1 trillion digital advertising market.

Consuming online. By 2030, AI Agent's shopping volume may be close to 25% of global reachable addresses for online shopping. Consumers’ use of AI Agent in shopping will simplify product discovery, provide personalized solutions and facilitate purchases. Research by ARK Invest shows that by 2030, AI Agent can boost nearly $9 trillion in total online consumption worldwide.

2.2 Digital wallet will help AI Agent realize a closed-loop value

ARK Invest research shows that digital wallets authorized by AI Agent (Digital Wallets) Shares will be taken from traditional payment methods such as credit and debit cards, which could account for 72% of all e-commerce transactions by 2030. Digital wallets are integrating financial services and e-commerce. Based on its consumer-facing business, the market valued leading digital wallet platforms such as Block, Robinhood and SoFi at $1,800 per user.

In addition to the digital wallet that can integrate savings, lending, insurance, investment, consumption and other functions in traditional bank financial services, through the help of AI Agent innovation paradigm, Digital wallets can undertake the value links of global e-commerce and digital consumption of downstream platforms, thus moving the value link upstream.

From this, in the pastThe “one-click checkout” model of e-commerce platforms such as Amazon may give way to the “one query and purchase” model of AI Agent wallets.

2.3 The valuation of digital wallet companies will be improved

Based on the lead generation rate and the impact of the AI ​​Agent innovation paradigm, by 2030 In 2018, AI Agent can generate between $40 billion and $200 billion in global revenue for digital wallet platforms (the basic situation and optimistic situation of ARK respectively). By 2030, the AI ​​Agent can add $50 to $200 in enterprise value (EV) to each user of a digital wallet in the U.S.

For internal cost reduction and efficiency improvement, companies deploying AI Agents should be able to increase unit counts and/or optimize labor to engage in higher value activities while keeping their labor unchanged. As artificial intelligence develops, AI Agents may handle higher proportions of workload and perform higher value tasks independently.

At the same time, with the decline in AI costs, more and more low-priced and efficient AI Agent products will appear. OpenAI and Salesforce’s new products are complementing human customer service representatives in a cost-effective way. Even if the fixed cost per conversation is $1, as long as the AI ​​agent can handle 35% of customer service consultations, it can save businesses a lot of money. AI agents should also reduce onboarding and recruiting costs and seat-based software costs while scaling easier than manual.

3. Stablecoin reshaping Digital Assets Area

As one of the fastest growing areas of digital assets, stablecoin has exceeded Mastercard and Visa in 2024. Despite a two-year bear market with a market value drop of more than 70%, the growth of stablecoins has remained uninterrupted.

3.1 Stablecoin trading volume is close to Visa and Mastercard

According to ARK Invest's report, the annualized transaction volume of stablecoins reached US$15.6 trillion in 2024, about 119% and 200% of Visa and Mastercard, respectively. Monthly transaction volumes reached 110 million, accounting for approximately 0.41% and 0.72% of the transaction volumes processed by Visa and Mastercard. In other words, the stablecoin value per transaction is much higher than that of Visa and Mastercard.

(visaonchainanalytics.com/transactions)

Because stablecoins can be used for various use cases, transactions can be initiated manually by the end user, or through a robot Initiated programmatically, so there is a lot of noise in the stablecoin data. Therefore, Visa adjusts the data of the stablecoin to remove inorganic activities and other artificial inflation behaviors adapted to robots.

According to Visa Onchain Analytics Dashboard: Overvie, the adjusted stablecoin annualized transaction volume reached US$5.62 trillion in 2024. We analyze data from the first 12 months ended February 2025:

Raw data:

The annualized transaction volume of stablecoins is US$32.3 trillion, with a total transaction volume of 4.9 billion, with a transaction volume of US$6592 per transaction. Corresponding to the total amount of stablecoins of 200 billion, the capital turnover rate is 161.5.

Adjusted data (excluding robot operations and high frequency data behaviors):

The annualized transaction volume of stablecoins is $6.1 trillion, totaling 1.3 billion transactions, with a transaction volume of $4,692 per transaction. Corresponding to the total amount of stablecoins of 200 billion, the capital turnover rate is 30.5.

So, according to Visa's data, the adjusted stablecoin transaction volume is close to the annual transaction volume level of Mastercard, and each transaction is worth a higher value.

(If the data is incorrect, or if there are other data statistics, please communicate and correct it)

3.2 The supply of stablecoins and the number of active stablecoin addresses hit a record high in 2024

Although there are differences in data statistics, the overall market value of stablecoins has exceeded US$200 billion and has maintained a continuous upward trend. Solana, Tron, Ethereum and Base are the leading blockchains that drive stablecoin transaction volume growth in 2024. A new record was set in December 2024, with daily trading volume of $270 billion and monthly trading volume of $2.7 trillion, highlighting the industry's rapid growth.

After the decline in 2023, UDST (Tether) continues to dominate the stablecoin sector, followed by USDC (Circle). Together, they account for 90% of the total supply. Multi-chain stablecoins penetrate almost all major L1 blockchains. The current supply of stablecoins is US$203 billion, accounting for about 0.97% of the US M2* money supply. In December 2024, the active stablecoin address reached 23 million, a record high. As measured by monthly active addresses, Tron is the leading network, favored by emerging markets for its low transaction fees.

L2 blockchain is cheaper and more efficient, and is attracting the interest of retail investors. Retail investors flock to Layer 2 for cheaper and more convenient stablecoin transactions, thus increasing the market share of blockchains such as Arbitrum, Base and Optimism. Meanwhile, whales and institutions continue to operate on the foundational layer of Ethereum. Trading under $100 dominates Base and Optimism, while trading above $100 dominates the base layer of Ethereum.

3.3 Peer-to-peer transactions and personal wallet storage dominate stablecoin use cases

EOA wallet—for Peer-to-peer (P2P) trading and asset storage standards Ethereum addresses—accounting for 60% of USDC usage, while centralized exchanges account for 11%, cross-chain bridge L2 solutions account for 7%, decentralized exchanges (DEX) and The money market each accounted for 1.7%.

As DeFi usage surges in the coming years, DEX, cross-chain bridges and money markets may regain market share from P2P. While the usage of lending markets, DEX and cross-chain bridges fluctuates with market cycles, P2P transactions and storage are more flexible because in addition to trading, the product market fit is higher.

3.4 Four stablecoin issuers dominate stablecoin revenue

Tether has less than 200 employees, and reports it is on the 2024 A profit of $5.2 billion was achieved in half a year, including unrealized returns on USDT, the remaining products and services, and its digital assets – which is clearly one of the most capital-efficient businesses in history. Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) account for 60% of revenue generated by the top five networks and applications. Overall, stablecoins USDT, USDC, DAI/USDS and USDE generated $3.35 billion in revenue in the second half of 2024, at an annualized rate of $6.7 billion.

Circle and Tether have been creating billions of dollars in treasury bills and other securities that serve as collateral for their stablecoins. Revenue. However, in 2024, in order to cope with competition and demand, Yield Bearing Stablecoin operating outside the United States began to transfer a large portion of its interest income to users. Circle and Tether are not very good unless absolutely necessary Probably follow this trend. Although the scale remains small, yield-based stablecoins are the fastest growing category in the stablecoin market.

3.5 stablecoins will accelerate Growth and digestion of US debt

To balance "de-dollarization", stablecoins are increasing demand for US debt as collateral. In a direction of de-globalization In a world of de-dollarization, stablecoins may drive stable demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. As of December 2024, Tether and Circle have combined to become the 20th largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds. In Brazil, Nigeria, Turkey, Indonesia In emerging markets with a large population such as India, individuals and companies are using stablecoins as a store of value, payment means and cross-border currencies. Stablecoins may become one of the most effective ways to export the dollar.

Currently stable The market value of the currency is US$203 billion, accounting for 0.17% of the global M2** supply, and by 2030, the market value of the stablecoin may grow to US$1.4 trillion and 0.9% respectively. If so, the stablecoin will become in circulation. The 13th largest currency, second only to Spain, is ahead of the Netherlands.

IV. Public blockchains and smart contracts: implement cost reduction and create new use cases at the application layer

WithThe digital asset space is becoming more and more complex, and smart contracts are driving innovation in more and more industries. The ecosystem is rapidly evolving to meet diverse and dynamic needs – from user-centric applications such as gaming and SocialFi, to advanced financial tools such as derivatives and structured products, to providing wireless connectivity and energy storage Supported decentralized infrastructure network.

These technology stacks all need to seek a lower-cost and more efficient blockchain for deployment. This has created two current market structures, either deployed on Solana's high throughput L1 or deployed on Ethereum's L2.

4.1 The Ethereum ecosystem is shifting to L2

The sharp drop in transaction costs has led to a surge in L2 activity, driving users from the basic layer of Ethereum Pull away in the middle. L2 accounts for 85% of the daily active addresses for trading in the Ethereum ecosystem. Activity on L2 has increased Ethereum’s daily transaction volume from 3 million to 15 million in 2024, an increase of 400%.

Among them, Base is the fastest growing Ethereum L2 blockchain. Within one year of launch, Base surpassed all other Ethereum L2 solutions in terms of growth and market share. In 2024, Base accounted for 46% of active users and incurred 63% of fees in Ethereum L2. Base TVL has a $15 billion deployment of more than 300 applications, making a significant contribution to Coinbase’s cash flow.

Nevertheless, the foundation layer of Ethereum still dominates high-value storage and settlement. Institutions, high-value users and whales settle their transactions primarily on the Ethereum base layer. The unit economic benefits of the Ethereum base layer are unparalleled as measured by total locked value (TVL) and the decentralized exchange (DEX) volume per user.

4.2 Solana's share has been increased based on a number of indicators due to the adoption of retail industry

Solana has appeared relative to other L1s after hitting a bear market low of $8 in 2023 A sharp improvement. Daily active users, revenue, transaction number and total locked value (TVL) all hit record highs or increased by an order of magnitude. Solana is the only L1 that competes with Ethereum and Bitcoin on metrics such as daily active addresses and revenue.

Solana and Base are leading in developer adoption and thought share. Of the 39,139 new crypto developers added in 2024, Solana leads with 7,625 developers, surpassing the Ethereum main network. With 4,287 developers, Base ranks sixth overall, surpassing Arbitrum and Starknet to become the leading layer 2 solution on Ethereum.