Do you know Bitcoin ?

That's right. It’s that magical “virtual currency”. It has no entity and is entirely virtual. He plays the leading role in various "get rich overnight" stories. But because it was too "trendy", it was once considered a lie.

Some time ago, its price was rising again. Especially this year, since Trump won the election, its price has risen sharply, with an increase of almost 40%. Until December 5, the price of one Bitcoin exceeded $100,000 for the first time.

(picture from the Internet)

100,000 US dollars is not a small amount. Converted into RMB, it's probably more than 700,000. Therefore, this matter has also attracted a lot of attention. In my circle of friends, many friends are also discussing it.

Some people say, nonsense. Should I issue a set of "Lao Li coins" myself tomorrow, and each one would be worth 100,000 yuan? This is a scam. Some people also say that whether it is true or not, it is now 100,000 US dollars. Will it increase in the future? I also want to run in.

I am not a professional financial practitioner and am not proficient in the logic of virtual currency investment.

However, I did once own a Bitcoin.

Yes. Have ever owned. It looks like I lost 700,000. But, is this really the case?

Share this story with you too.

That was about ten years ago, when I was serving as a strategic advisor to a well-known investment institution.

This investment institution was called Morningside Capital at the time and was later renamed Wuyuan Capital. They were once angel investors of Xiaomi. After Xiaomi went public, the return on investment reached 866 times. Later, they also invested in famous companies such as Kuaishou.One of the most successful investment institutions.

We spend about two days every month to look at some projects and confirm whether to invest. Because I have worked in a technology company like Microsoft before, I will pay more attention to technology projects.

At that time, the Internet era was experiencing explosive development, and various innovative plans and ideas were emerging one after another. I thought I knew a lot about the tech world. But I soon discovered that I couldn’t understand some entrepreneurs’ plans.

Especially when seeing a virtual currency trading platform project.

That was my first exposure to virtual currency trading. What I heard was interesting and very curious, so while listening to the introduction of the project sponsor, I opened their trading website to see what was going on.

Looking at it, I found that they support Bitcoin transactions. So, I decided to try and buy one. After all, how can you ask valuable questions without actually experiencing it?

The price of Bitcoin at that time was about 4,000 yuan. I completed the transaction quickly. After that, I did some more research and found that there had already been a similar virtual currency trading platform in the United States. For example, Coinbase. So, I registered a Coinbase account and transferred the Bitcoins I purchased on the platform to the Coinbase account just like sending an email.

Then, I discovered something that particularly shocked me: the Bitcoin purchased with RMB can be immediately converted into US dollars.

Under the restrictions of foreign exchange controls, it is very troublesome to convert RMB into US dollars. But now, I can actually do this in an instant.

Awesome. I suddenly felt that this virtual digital currency might change an era.

However, I bought this Bitcoin at that time just to understand the project better. And I have no plans to invest in it. So, I’m not buying Bitcoin in large quantities.

However, the surprise caused by Bitcoin has always remained in my heart. Therefore, I have been paying attention to things related to Bitcoin.

In 2013, the People’s Bank of China and five other ministries and commissions issued a notice on preventing Bitcoin risks, saying that Bitcoin is a virtual commodity and cannot and should not be used as currency. circulate in the market. However, Bitcoin trading is an online purchase and sale of goods, and ordinary people have the freedom to participate at their own risk.

In 2017, CCTV reported that the central bank announced an official rectification of the Bitcoin platform. Because Bitcoin, as an intermediate link in value transfer, may exceed the annual currency exchange quota per person.

Later, there were continuous notifications and announcements. Illegal financing is prohibited. Token issuance is prohibited. Strengthen supervision. The intensity is getting stronger.

Therefore, many companies that initially announced their support for Bitcoin payments suspended payments. Later, buying Bitcoin became increasingly difficult.

So, once the payment function is cancelled, will Bitcoin completely lose its use?

I didn’t think too much about it. And my Bitcoin has not been sold. It just sits quietly in the account. Until I almost forgot.

Until later, when I accidentally remembered it, I discovered that the Bitcoin I bought for 4,000 yuan had already increased to more than 50,000 yuan. It has doubled more than ten times.

So, I sold it. Because I felt at the time that the price was already very high. After all, there was once a good man who exchanged 10,000 Bitcoins for two large pizzas.

(The programmer brother who threw 10,000 Bitcoins for pizza, Laszlo Hanyecz)

I say goodbye to this Bitcoin.

However, over the years, whenever I discuss the transformation of Internet finance with clients from banks, insurance companies and fund companies, we almost always talk about Bitcoin. currency. Because everyone is really surprised: Why does Bitcoin have the value it has today?

I think this is probably because of: consensus.

This is the same as "Why is gold valuable?" Because everyone has reached a consensus that "it is very valuable."

Gold, this precious metal produced from the earth, very cleverly meets several attributes of a trading intermediary.

First of all, its reserves are limited. There is only so much gold on earth. You cannot produce indefinitely. Because something can be produced infinitely, it is difficult for it to maintain its currency status; secondly, it is easy to divide. Whether you want a little more, or a little less, it can be weighed out. If it's a big piece every time, it's hard to change hands; finally, it's less likely to spoil. It won't break if left alone.

Gold naturally has monetary properties. Therefore, there is a saying that "gold and silver are naturally not currency, but currency is naturally gold and silver."

Understand why gold can become currency. You will understand why Bitcoin has the opportunity to become a currency.

First of all, its total amount is limited. According to the algorithm setting, its circulation will be halved every four years. Ultimately, the limit of Bitcoin in the world is approximately 21 million; secondly, it is also easy to divide. The smallest unit of Bitcoin is 10 to the power of minus 8; finally, as a digital asset, Bitcoin will certainly not be damaged.

Yes. The three attributes are almost all consistent. When Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin, he used gold as a reference.

Moreover, compared to other currencies, Bitcoin has another advantage: higher credibility.

In 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto wrote a paper called "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System".

Please note that one word stands out: point-to-point. That is P2P.

I know. When it comes to P2P, many people must think of the widespread fraud activities back then. P2P lending is also in trouble because the platform has disappeared. However, this is not the original intention of P2P.

The original meaning of P2P is "decentralization". Decentralization means there is no central authority.

Bitcoin is a decentralized monetary system that removes the central bank.

In a "centralized" monetary system, You deposited 5,000 yuan in the bank. This 5,000 yuan is actually a piece of data in the bank's ledger. All operations on the 5,000 yuan must go through the bank as an intermediary for identity authentication and modification. , is the center.

But what if there is a problem with the "center" itself?

Decentralization

The ledger is no longer just placed in the center of the bank, but appears on all recording nodes in the entire network. It cannot be that more than half of the computing nodes have problems at the same time, right? It might be possible, but it's unlikely.

This "decentralized accounting technology" also has a name.

Blockchain.

Bitcoin is a specific application of blockchain technology.

So, after the emergence of Bitcoin, even if a certain You can't ban it by storming into a certain headquarters building and seizing a certain gang leader, because it doesn't rely on a certain center. style="text-align: left;">This ensures that it is more difficult for someone to manipulate it.

However, this still does not mean.

Unless someone thinks it has value.

As one of the first cryptocurrencies to appear, some people thought it was valuable. Later, when there was no official channel recognition, some people used it to make payments. More and more people think it is valuable. Gradually , Bitcoin began to operate and gradually grew. Some wealthy people began to leave Bitcoin to their children as inheritance without paying inheritance tax. Later, some politicians also began to recognize the value of Bitcoin.

For example, Trump

Recently, he has been promotingHis idea: Bitcoin will be stored in large quantities, even as a replacement for gold. Not only is he a supporter of the crypto market, he is also a direct beneficiary. The digital trading card NFT named by Trump earned his family $22 million.

(Trump announces the launch of digital trading cards)

Perhaps as someone said, Trump's purpose of hoarding Bitcoin may be to repay the debt after increasing the appreciation. There may be other reasons as well. But no matter what, the price of Bitcoin has risen like this.

This is the power of consensus.

If one day, Satoshi Nakamoto’s dream comes true and Bitcoin officially becomes a currency, then the total amount of currency in circulation in the world is divided by 21 million pieces is probably its value.

How much would that be? $200,000, $500,000, or more? It’s too much to count, too many.

But, does this possibility exist? Will Bitcoin become a global transaction currency?

This is an open and complex question.

But it is really hard for me to imagine that many would recognize its status as a trading currency. Because, to some extent, it destroys the central bank's monetary system. When the macroeconomy needs to be stimulated or braked, it will be more difficult for the central bank to influence the macroeconomy by controlling the total amount of money as before.

Okay. My story with Bitcoin is over.

However, the purpose of telling this story is not to regret that I bought too little and sold too early.

Because it doesn't make sense. If I hadn’t sold it then, I might feel lucky now. Similarly, if the price drops, you will regret selling it at that time.

Maybe the real focus is not on short-term judgment, but on whether you can stick to it.

Especially, when an asset rises tenHow many times it has doubled, even if you are still optimistic about its long-term value, can you insist on holding it?

This is a small reflection. It can be regarded as a small review and a small commemoration at this time when Bitcoin broke through the 100,000 US dollar mark.

In the past ten years, things have changed. Ten years ago, I bought a Bitcoin at a price of 4,000 yuan and sold it when it rose to 50,000 yuan. Today, it has grown to $100,000. From 4,000 yuan to 100,000 US dollars, this is not only a change in numbers, but also a microcosm of an era.

Perhaps, in this rapidly changing world, the most important thing is not to predict the future, but to keep an open mind.

Only in this way can we learn to grow in uncertainty.

What do you think?