Author: Revc, Golden Finance

Game and fission in the crypto market in February 2025

The crypto market after Trump's second election is not only a carnival for dividends, but also a test field for endogenous risks. With the implementation of key economic data in February 2025, the adjustment of regulatory frameworks and the acceleration of technological iteration, the market continues to fluctuate amid the tension of "optimists move forward" and "pessimist warning". This article analyzes the current market trends from a multi-dimensional perspective and explores its deep logic.

1. Turn: The struggle between liberalization commitment and landing risks

Optimist narrative: Trump's "crypto ideal country" is advancing rapidly, SEC chairman Gary Gensler resigns, Bitcoin ETF cumulative assets managed After exceeding 1.1 million BTC (BlackRock IBIT accounts for 45%), the US Bitcoin reserve plan is being legislated in Texas and Pennsylvania, and the price of Bitcoin has exceeded US$100,000.

Pessimists question: Bitcoin reserve plans face high volatility risks, and the federal deficit reaches $1.8 trillion, the coordinated resistance between Congress and the Federal Reserve may trigger an execution fault.

New February news:

- SEC turns to "guided regulation": new chairman Paul Atkins promotes the top ten priorities of the cryptocurrency working group, clarifying the attributes of token securities and exploring cooperation The path is regulated, but it emphasizes crackdown on fraud.

- FIT21 bill advances: If the Senate passes, the SEC and CFTC regulatory boundaries will be divided, but Republican lawmaker Cynthia Rumis warned that "the bill needs to balance innovation and investor protection."

2. Meme coin craze: Tokenization and bubble risk

Optimist logic: Trump's Meme coin TRUMP market value once exceeded US$15 billion, and Solana's on-chain transaction volume surged (100 million active addresses), Attract retail investors to enter and expand the user base.

Pessimists are cold-eyed: TRUMP coin plummeted 60% after it was launched, Melania coin diverted funds, former Coinbase CTO denounced it as a "zero-sum lottery", industry leaders warned that the bubble burst or repeat the FTX-style trust collapse .

February data verification:

- The proportion of meme currency transactions has risen: accounting for 11% of the transaction volume of the top 300 crypto assets (excluding stablecoins), but speculative causes Market volatility intensified, with the amount of liquidated in 24 hours reaching US$346 million.

- WLFI asset allocation dispute: WLFI transfers US$307 million to Coinbase Prime, increasing its holdings in ETH and WBTC to hedge volatility, but the token swap protocol is questioned to use its influence to lock in liquidity.

III. Macroeconomic linkage: The double impact of non-agricultural data and debt crisis

Optimists expect: In January 2025, the US non-agricultural employment increased by 143,000, lower than the expected 169,000, and the unemployment rate was from 4.1% dropped to 4%. One hour after the non-farm employment data was disclosed, Bitcoin returned to $100,000Nearby, but due to inflation concerns and tariff threats, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell collectively overnight, and Bitcoin fell back to around $96,000.

When Trump met with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, he said that he would announce "reciprocal tariffs" measures next week, which could escalate the trade war. Mark Hackett, chief strategist at Nationwide, noted that the market initially focused on non-farm employment data, but Trump's tariff statement became the new focus. Despite slowing employment growth, low unemployment may keep the Fed from keeping interest rates unchanged, and the market is expected to cut interest rates only once this year.

Pessimists warn: US Treasury bonds exceed $36 trillion, and debt ratings are facing the risk of downgrading. If the US debt crisis triggers global liquidity tightening, the crypto market may collapse simultaneously with risky assets.

February market resilience test:

- Dollar hegemony game: The US dollar index rises to 108, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative strengthens, but WLFI sells out some ETH to lock in profits, exposing short-term Speculative attributes.

- Fed Contradiction: Trump tries to stimulate the economy by managing the 10-year Treasury yield, which conflicts with the Fed's independence and aggravates market uncertainty.

4. Technology-driven and bubble worry: Ethereum upgrade vs. VC valuation inflated

Optimists cheered: Ethereum Pectra upgrade (expected to Q1-Q2 in 2025) aims to comprehensively improve Ethereum's performance and User experience. This upgrade will focus on improving account abstraction, simplifying private key management and achieving more diversified transaction functions; enhancing L2 compatibility, reducing transaction costs and improving efficiency; optimizing the staking mechanism, reducing participation thresholds and improving ETH liquidity; improving EVM Performance, enhance the security of smart contracts; and improve light client support and improve network decentralization. The goal of Pectra upgrade is to make Ethereum easier to use, cheaper and safer, thereby accelerating its massive adoption and cementing its leadership in the smart contract platform.

Pessimist review: New public chains such as TON and SUI are inflated (SUI FDV reaches US$54 billion), the homogeneous competition of altcoins exposed weak innovation, and the RWA project Plume Network promised 4.5 billion before launching US dollar assets but TVL is only $64 million.

February technical milestone:

- Frax L2 is launched: Fraxtal supports frxETH and FRAX as Gas tokens, and Curve Finance and other leading protocols have entered, but will it attract hundreds of millions of dollars in the first month USD TVL is doubtful.

- EigenLayer re-pled boom: TVL has exceeded US$12.1 billion, but the 33% pledge ceiling has caused centralized concerns, and airdrop incentives may intensify short-term speculation.

5. Regulation and international game: decentralized ideal vs. manipulation of reality

Optimists' vision: EU MiCA framework takes effect, global regulation convergence promotes complianceprocess.

Pessimists revealed: The WLFI project lost tens of millions of dollars, and the Trump family was accused of "using influence to cut leeks", and decentralization became a vassal of power.

February Georisk:

- Trump's territorial dispute: Radical issues such as "America Gulf" have raised, causing tension in the international situation, and the crypto market has 24-hour long orders and liquidated 282 million yuan. Dollar.

- CBDC confrontation escalates: Trump firmly resists the digital dollar, and accelerates the promotion of the digital RMB, and the risk of separating the global payment system increases.

Conclusion: Reshaping the industry value between fanaticism and soberness

The "Trump era" of the crypto market is a prism that reflects the complex entanglement of power, capital game and technological innovation. Pessimists see the recurrence of repetition, Meme Bubble and debt crisis; optimists embrace the dividends of institutional entry, Ethereum upgrade and global funding expansion.

Historical experience warns: The real winners in the market need to be dynamically balanced between two perspectives

1. Get rid of "Trump dependence": significant unsustainability (the rate of fulfillment of the president's commitment Only 31%), the industry needs to shift from "regulatory arbitrage" to building endogenous value of technology.

2. Resist the "encrypted giant baby mentality": WLFI floating losses and VC bubbles reveal that excessive reliance on external dividends will weaken the anti-cyclical ability, and only infrastructure and application layer innovation can travel through bull and bear.

If the crypto industry can take this opportunity to consolidate its technical foundation in the loosening period and stay awake in fanatical speculation, only then can it nurture the real miracle of crypto civilization in the bumpy situation.