Author: 0xTodd, Source: Twitter @0x_Todd

In the past week, many friends have called me to inquire about the market. I think it is necessary to disclose my ideas and disclose my views on the current market.

【What exactly has changed】

【Future process】

Family people who have been following me for a long time know that I am a long-term investor . So, starting from 2019, I have an annual strategy updated every year. This article is probably for communication and discussion with my family.

1. DeepSeek pierces the bubble

As soon as DeepSeek comes out, don't worry if it really uses 500,000 US dollars to train such an AI, but this narrative is like this: [Algorithm Improvement] at least in the short term Civil defeated [Computing Power Improvement].

Don’t worry about whether this thing is real--since the market unanimously recognizes the 500w incident, you should think it is real.

When our crypto industry reached the end of 24 years, except meme, I don’t want to admit it, but objectively, there is only one last narrative left: AIAgent, which can be said to be the hope of the whole village.

However, no one expected that AIAgent was ruthlessly beaten by DeepSeek from the True AI track next door.

The DS team is full of real IQ200, fresh graduates from Tsinghua and Peking University, and medalists from the Olympic Games.

In contrast, our industry is popular with second-tier programmers who are idle at home, AI engineers who are dismissed or secretly engaged in side jobs, so sometimes we are forced to IQ50.

So...

On January 27, I took all my AI token positions with tears in my eyes, and didn't sell them at the highest point. , many retracements are gone, it is fake to say that you don’t feel sorry for it.

But the colder fact is that this thing turns our entire AIAgent track into a clown, and this is probably true.

The reason why "narrative" is "narrative" before "things" is because this "thing" has not yet been implemented, and can only rely on "narrative". Once the story can't be told, the decline of the track is really irreversible.

2. The President and the President are in a turmoil

I don’t know how you feel during the Chinese New Year. Anyway, my physical feelings are that many relatives and friends are asking how to register for BN or OKX, but there is no such thing because they want to buy Trump coins .

The last time they were so crazy was on National Day, they wanted to open an account and enter the A-share market.

Shanghai Stock Index Trend Source: Tencent Securities

If I remember correctly, these entry on the 10.8th The warriors of Big A are still hanging on the top of that mountain.

After taking profit AI, to be honest, the more I want itEchinho was afraid, and then I saw this post.

Abstract: The president seems to be in trouble, but there are two possibilities for the reasons:

1. He did not pass This way you can see to make money

2. He is a stupid*

Anyway, I know the answer is absolutely impossible to be 2 .

Yes! Meme is now the president is playing, and he can also make money through channels that we don’t know.

To be fair, is our play meme on the same table as Trump?

A Thai hippo, an American squirrel, and a bottle of longevity medicine to prolong the life of flies , can you really sit at the same table as Trump, who lives in the Oval Office?

It's the Chinese New Year, with adults and children.

Adults drink famous wine, while children only deserve to drink Sprite.

So, I basically lost the memes in my hand that day. My meme position used to have huge floating profits, but because I took the initiative to reduce the IQ to 50, I did not complete the great retreat, but I have been joining the great revolution.

The feeling of dreaming

3. A top signal: The high school brother earns tens of millions

I believe that all the family members who play meme, even those who don’t play meme, have heard about it recently This legendary story.

A high school brother joined Jelly for a month and beat Jelly at once, and won tens of millions at a high cost.

Of course, it became more and more outrageous and rumors became more and more. I was not sure that this matter was 100% true, but I know This tastes right.

Reviewing the 1-3 days before the 69K historical top in 2021, I am sighing:

Interns, the yield easily beats the fund boss. /p>

ENS' grassroots community contributors got tens of millions of airdrops

The moment

It was just like

This moment

p>

I liked this post. A TIME editor (or of course a hacker) can immediately harvest countless SOLs by relying on a fake Twitter.

I ask you, what does this mean?

It’s not that making money is not enough - experts can always make money, even if they can still make money at the bottom of the bear market.

But if the subject becomes an ordinary person:

The intern brother makes a lot of money, the ENS contributes brother makes a lot of money, the high school brother makes a lot of money, and the editor brother makes a lot of money.

Meaning: [At this moment, everyone's hands are particularly loose]

Friends who often play cards know that only when the floating profit is extremely high will they Become loose.

This means that the greed index has reached its true vertex.

This is a super top signal.

So, on the 30th, I cleared almost all my stocksThe altcoins only retain BTC and a small number of mainstream coins ETH/SOL/DOGE exchange coins.

Although there are still losses, the fruits of victory are left behind.

I admire my high school brother’s wonderful operations, and I also respect the iron market rules of this alternative investment product.

4. Questions about BN and BN's responses

Hey, to be honest, I don't want to talk about this topic.

As a former CEX practitioner, I have seen this set of consultant-listing and shipping dramas too many times. From the initial anger to the gradual numbness behind, it is no longer surprising. .

However, in the past, this thing was placed under the table, which was "small greed and small corruption were the lubricant for development";

It was "the water was clear and there was no fish", and there was a little under the water surface. Tumor is considered part of the rules of the game.

After all, we do not live in a utopia, nor in a vacuum home.

However, the most taboo thing about this thing is to take it from under the table to the counter.

I have no intention of criticizing BN or No. 1 sister because this matter exists in almost every CEX.

If this is placed in the traditional world, to put it in an exaggeration, it is a huge scandal, which can cause hundreds of people to be laid off and dozens of people to be punished at once.

Maybe the number one sister might as well not respond, learn from celebrities to deal with cold treatment, and give retail investors some thoughts.

However, most of our industry are skeptical, and a huge scandal is a heavy hammer that is hard on the heart of every holder.

It defeated many people's beliefs.

Our industry really needs "god" because it is maintained by consensus.

But when everyone found out that the public servants under "God" actually wanted to make some quick money, their faith suddenly disappeared, and they quickly projected to God's relationship--all BN The altcoins on the market are now facing huge suspicion and gaze from retail investors. Since AI and HOOK are like this, are other coins really better?

5. Future scripts

If you follow the viewpoint of Kezhou Juejian, this decline is very similar to 5.19. I suggest you review it yourself. Trends after 5.19.

Trends after 519 in 21, Source: Bitfinex

If you follow the script of 5.19, then there is a The turbulent plot lasted for two months until the most loyal person was washed out of the car and then the new $Bitcoin ATH came.

Of course, some people suspect that this is the plot of 12.4, the beginning of the AKA bear market.

From the inner tendency alone, I hope this is 5.19.

After all, Bitcoin's US strategic reserves are heading for a bright future.Don't underestimate the huge influence of this matter, really.

Even if Bitcoin reaches 85K-88K, I am willing to add some additional positions.

6. My position distribution

My current position:

40% BTC

20% mainstream coins (ETH, SOL, DOGE, BNB/MNT)

40% Stable Coin Financial Management

Bitcoin is my eternal belief. I think I will never sell BTC and will no longer do swings.

Reasons for retaining ETH:

To be honest, belief in ETH is weakening.

However, objectively speaking, the president's DeFi project is buying ETH.

I don’t know if there are many people in my family who are speculating on US stocks. Many people regret not following the order [Nancy, Capitol Hill Female Stock Goddess of Pelosi].

Picture source: World Magazine

Peosi's highlight moment was the President of the House of Representatives, this is just The third pick in American politics.

Trump is now the real president, the crypto president, who is holding ETH in a large position (although it has been deposited with untraceable Coinbase custody), and this amount cannot be underestimated.

Secondly, ETH has fallen to its current position, and I think it has reached the extreme of FUD, and there may be the thought that things will turn against each other. I can't buy it without anyone paying attention to it, at least don't sell it without anyone paying attention to it.

Reasons for retaining SOL:

There is a small probability that ETF;

But the cooling of AI narrative and the short-term sluggishness of MEME are considered two small ones. haze.

Reasons for retaining DOGE:

Greyscale has launched Dogecoin Trust, and Doge also has a low probability ETF

In addition, Musk, in the D.O.G.E department Working hard;

I was in the same car as the world's richest man and "Director of the US Development and Reform Commission", and I think I can sleep too.

Reasons for retaining exchange tokens:

The ugly thing is ahead, the exchange has no possibility of making it on a bigger stage.

Coinbase does not list BNB, nor does Binance do not list MNT.

But the exchange is the only institution in our industry that can make money + concessions;

If the bear market really comes, the exchange tokens are relatively more resistant to declines, and occasionally an IEO will still If you can get back your blood, you can only rely on this to survive in a bear market.

7. Cruel view: The good days for the old people are over.

Apart from the above, I am most likely not to hold any counterfeit positions in the short term - the reason is also very simple, inflation is too fast.

Speed ​​entry of new users and new fundsThe degree is not as fast as the printing speed of these coin-issuing monsters.

Source:Decrypt

A few days ago, there was a statistics, the most awesome account on pumpfun, 3 17,000 coins were issued per month.

Not 170, not 1700, but 17000! His contribution alone may exceed the sum of tokens issued in the entire bull market in 2017.

Why did the investment strategy of the old Dengs fail?

Too many choices

Too many angles!

Even the same one There are N CAs in the angle

Where is the turn of Lao Deng’s copycat?

The Lao Deng’s favorite strategy: buy a waist mountain race at 100M or 200M.

Hold it for 2-3 months and bet it outperforms Bitcoin.

However, now I am afraid that even ETH can’t win.

And Marshal P's favorite strategy: buy a project with a 10K valuation in the internal market.

Runned after 30 minutes.

The real man never looks back and looks at the explosion.

Obviously, in today's token inflation, Marshal P is far better than Lao Deng.

I don’t call on everyone to become young players, I just hope that everyone will at least not be old people.

8. Best position: 50% big cake + 50% stablecoin financial management

In addition, I sincerely recommend that everyone hold a certain U to spend the next time.

You have to accept the fact that no one can really sell it in the super big top.

The top of the mountain is once every 4 years. You can find a day to sell it in more than a thousand days. The probability of 1/1,000 is naturally very few, and all of them are super lucky.

At this stage, half-position is the best choice.

You invest 50% of your principal in financial management, and we don’t talk about what mines to invest in or what arbitrage to do.

We will do the simplest Ethena USDE, and now Pendle can still give an interest rate of 18%.

If Pendle is too lazy to do it, and throw it directly into AAVE or mainstream CEX financial management, there is still 10%.

The other 50% are mainly Bitcoin, quietly waiting for the day when the US Bitcoin strategic reserves arrive.

It has both interest cash flow, dreams and beliefs, you will definitely feel comfortable,

.

Of course, you can cut out another 5% of the altcoins you truly believe in, whether it is ETH, SOL, DOGE or any of your faith coins.

Search out 5% of the funds and go to PVP for two things. If you win, you will be free and use it as a consumption if you lose. Isn’t it beautiful?

Finally, this kind of Tai Chi is formed. Distribution of graphs.

9. The mostLater I am quite satisfied with my current position. After all, this is my 8th year of ups and downs in the crypto industry. I have always had some experience after so long.

The only thing I feel a little regretful is that I have been playing in Osaka these days during the Chinese New Year. I am lazy and have not sorted out these thoughts as soon as possible.

The same strategy, said a few days ago, may help many people, but said a few days later, it becomes a review afterwards.

But it is not too late to make up for the loss of the sheep.

I hope every family can get their own big results in the crypto market.

Of course, if you can't get big results, then keeping some small results and earning more spiritual and social wealth is also worth the trip.