Author: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise; Compiled by: 0xjs@金财经

I tried to write this CIO memo about the biggest issues that cryptocurrency investors face every week question. That’s why a year ago, on December 11, 2023, my CIO memo was titled “Is it too late to buy Bitcoin?”

At the time, Bitcoin was up for the year 165%, price over $40,000. Here's what I wrote:

Most of the people I talk to these days want to know: Is it too late to buy Bitcoin?

Most people believe 2024 will be a great year for cryptocurrencies, including the possible launch of a Bitcoin ETF, BlackRock’s entry into the space, the Bitcoin halving, and more.

But as I write this, Bitcoin is up more than 165% year to date, while Coinbase is up more than 300%. Have they missed this feast?

I could almost write the same thing today.

Once again, people are optimistic about 2025, Washington will be governed by a pro-crypto currency, and Bitcoin ETFs, companies and investors will buy Bitcoin aggressively due to the reduction in supply caused by the 2024 halving.

Again, everyone wants to know if it is too late to buy Bitcoin.

My answer this year is the same as last year: "Not too late." Most investors still have no exposure to Bitcoin. Until that changes, you're still, by definition, in the early stages.

I share this review not to celebrate a win—cryptocurrency prediction can be a humbling act—but to put this feeling into context.

Bitcoin always feels like it’s too late. It was so in the past and it will be so in the future.

What people really want to know is, will there be a pullback in Bitcoin that would allow them to enter the industry at a lower price level?

The answer is, yes, very likely. Bitcoin is highly volatile and we should expect a significant correction.

But trying to time these pullbacks is risky. Those who thought they entered the market at $40,000 in December 2023 are still waiting for a $100,000 pullback. Will they ever see $40,000 again?

Focusing too narrowly on pullbacks can miss the bigger picture. Here’s an example: Let’s say you’re a terrible market timer; you bought at the absolute peak of the previous cycle, on November 10, 2021, when Bitcoin hit $68,780. Subsequently, the price of Bitcoin fell directly below 17,000 USD. What bad luck, right? You may feel stupid. But suppose, despite your poor timing, you hold on to this position until today.

You would have gained more than 42%, beating the S&P 500 over the same period.

Or, what if you bought Bitcoin during the 2017 mania, when it peaked at $19,217? Bitcoin then fell all the way to over $3,000.

But if you had held on today, you would have gained more than 400%, more than double the S&P 500's roughly 150% return.

The temptation to try to time the market is great. But if you think an asset is going to go up 5x or 10x – and you’re only betting a small portion of your portfolio on it – does it really matter if the timing is perfect?

As the old adage goes: It is time in the market that counts, not timing the market, always.

Finally, let me tell you a story: I remember the first time I heard about Bitcoin. That was the day Bitcoin topped $1 for the first time. I was leading a team of young financial analysts at a traditional financial firm, and we had a one-hour meeting to discuss this new innovation.

I didn’t have time to buy it that day. I was busy and I thought it might be too late.