Source: Daoshuo Blockchain

Before the holiday, the crypto ecosystem was led to a decline in US stocks due to DeepSeek's decline.

As a result, during the Spring Festival, the crypto ecosystem was once again led to a decline in US stocks due to Trump's tax increase.

Although I had previously guessed that Trump might be the largest "black swan" in the crypto market, I didn't expect that one of the black swans would fly out so quickly, and I didn't expect that this black swan would look like It is caused by tariffs that have little to do with the crypto market.

According to the information currently revealed by some exchanges, nearly US$10 billion of assets were liquidated during this sharp drop in the crypto market.

This will cause great losses to users who use leverage, but for users who hold spot stock, the losses can still be controlled. I hope our readers will try not to use leverage, as their losses will be limited in this big drop.

I still have hope for the future development of the market and still feel that the market has not been completed because innovation in the ecosystem is still emerging.

It’s just that we retail investors should strengthen their psychological construction and enhance their tolerance for such violent fluctuations, and welcome new "black swan" events that may happen next.

If we carefully observe the various situations shown in these two market fluctuations before and during the Spring Festival, we will find that on the one hand, the crypto market is not only affected by the traditional US stock market as always, but also In terms of the crypto market, it also appears to be more fragile and sensitive than US stocks.

U.S. stocks can often recover to a large extent after a deep drop in the subsequent rebound. But the crypto market is not the case. It often recovers quite weakly after a deep drop, and it takes longer and greater favorable conditions to recover to a certain extent.

If we agree that the current crypto market has become increasingly influenced by traditional capital and traditional investors, then the current crypto market seems to be more and more like "risk" in a relatively vulgar sentence The "chamber pot" in assets, take it out when used, throw it aside if you don't use it------ When the market for mainstream risk assets (such as US stocks) is good, crypto assets will follow the improvement; and when mainstream risk When assets are impacted, crypto assets will be hit harder.

This phenomenon began to show some signs in the previous cycle, but it was very obvious in this cycle.

I always try to think about the reasons for this phenomenon, because I always think that there is still a big difference between the crypto ecosystem and the traditional financial market. It is another parallel world with its own uniqueness. development route and rules.

Just like gold and US stocks, although both are financial assets, their internal attributes are completely different. In many cases, the trends of the two have no strong correlation with the internal logic.

The same is true for the encryption ecosystem. It should not always play the role of a "room pot", it should go out of its own market.

But at present, the reason why crypto assets are so greatly affected by traditional financial markets, II think it may be related to three current situations:

First, the overall volume of the crypto market is not large enough. If there is a slight "moment", a certain amount of capital flow will cause severe fluctuations in the market;

Secondly, the crypto market is not regulated, resulting in uncontrolled leverage risks, which can easily amplify risks when market fluctuations and aggravate market fluctuations

Secondly, the crypto market has not yet formed its own unique In the eyes of traditional capital that already has dominance, internal driving force and development model are just a subject that adds icing on the cake rather than an ecosystem that can get out of the market alone. Therefore, once the risk comes, the first thing that is abandoned may be the assets of this ecosystem.

After thinking more, I think these three situations are the third one.

The so-called encryption ecosystem has not yet formed its own unique internal driving force and development model, which means that this ecosystem has not yet formed a large number of applications and scenarios that can attract users outside the circle.

Putting aside the positioning of Bitcoin's "digital gold", from the earliest 1CO to the previous round of DeFi, NFT, and chain games, most of the applications they have spawned are still serving the ecosystem. Users-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For a large number of users who buy, sell and trade in CEX, they are actually not real users of this ecosystem, but just investors.

So these applications have not become popular in nature and have not brought about a large number of users.

This is completely opposite to the Internet applications we see in reality------In real life, almost everyone uses WeChat and Alipay, but few of us invest Tencent and invested in Alibaba.

From this comparison, if the encryption ecosystem does not appear with the massive Internet users, I estimate that the encryption ecosystem's role as a "chamber pot" may continue to play.

But when will such encryption applications appear?

From 1CO to now, we have seen too many applications that combine blockchain with "entities" or "off-chain", but 99.99% of them are pseudo-demand and pseudo-demand. There seems to be no one that has become popular or even popular.

In this round of market conditions, can we see such applications appear?