Original title: The Genie

Author: Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX; Translated by: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

American Peace Wishing Company (Pax, headquartered in Mar-Lago Manor). Americana Make-A-Wish Corporation) hosted many pleaders. Cryptocurrency people are also waiting in line like everyone else, hoping to achieve one or more wishes. The capricious elf The Orange Man is surrounded by a bunch of flatterers who preside over the big picture in the South Florida swamps, playing 1980s pop music every week in his country nightclub.

There is no difference between good and bad in elves. What we should judge is the wish of the recipient. Every culture has a moral story about how false wishes that aim to achieve shortcuts for success, wealth, or personal happiness have unintended consequences. The moral of this story is that there are no simple buttons in life; all good things are the product of hard work and hard work.

I intend to discuss the key aspirations of many in the global crypto industry regarding the establishment of Bitcoin Strategic Reserves (BSRs) and crypto regulation under the U.S. rule. Broadly speaking, many misguided crypto people want the United States to print dollars and buy bitcoin as part of their reserves and to develop regulatory moats for crypto businesses that have financial interests. I believe these people have asked wrongly. Let us do a difficult thing, ask the elves for something that cannot be easily revoked from the next session, regardless of the party's ownership.

In the first part of this article, I will discuss why the BSR and the Frankenstein Crypto Regulatory Act are negative for the industry, both locally and globally. Next, I will advise those who line up day after day in bubble yarn suits or thick heels and summer outfits who want to make wishes to the orange elves, what wishes they should ask the orange elves to fulfill.

Bitcoin strategic reserve

You can buy it and sell it. The fundamental problem with hoarding any assets is that they buy and sell assets mainly for the benefit, not for the financial benefit. Given the current structure of the global economic system, does Bitcoin itself have any effect on the United States? No. Bitcoin is just another financial asset. While readers may consider this the hardest currency ever created by Satoshi Nakamoto, the only true god, I can assure you that the motive of this elf is not the spiritual need to please God. His motivation is to appease the electorate base that helped him take office.

Let’s assume that Trump can create a BSR. One million bitcoins were purchased, as U.S. Senator Lummis suggested. Bang! Prices are soaring. Then, the purchase ends and the uptrend channel stops.

Fast forward two to four years. By 2026, Democrats may tap into voters’ grievances over Trump’s failure to calm inflation, stop any endless wars, resolve food supply issues, drain swamps, and moreAnd win. What if they got a vetoed majority in the House? What if the Democrats win the election in 2028…

For an incoming Democratic-controlled legislature or president, finding a large amount of cash to buy goodies for supporters is the primary order. This is the primary order of any home, regardless of the system. There is a million bitcoins right there and ready to be sold; just sign on a piece of paper. The market will naturally worry about when and how these bitcoins will be sold. Is this done to minimize the impact on the market and maximize the USD you receive, or does it maliciously do so in order to punish support Orange cryptocurrency holders? We don't know, but this uncertainty limits people's enthusiasm for Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency capital market.

Create BSR or reserved altcoins, including cryptocurrencies like Ripple, turning any cryptocurrency you hold into a powerful weapon. Furthermore, as a pure strategy, will the United States have meaningful participation in community activities? Will they donate to sponsor Bitcoin core developers? Will they run nodes? Maybe…but from the way I talk about BSR, it seems to me that it is an exercise to forget if you set it up. Trump and the Republicans can look at the sky-high price of Bitcoin, claim the mission is completed, and sell more campaign donations to David Bailey at $10,000 per dish. Don't hate players, hate games. Asking the elves to realize this wish will bring unnecessary pain in less than two years.

The Frankenstein Crypto Act

The easiest way to understand which crypto regulations holders believe are acceptable is to observe their portfolio. From my point of view – away from the circus surrounding the elves – it seems that those who own a large stake in centralized crypto financial intermediaries are most likely to fulfill their desire for crypto regulation because of the high noise they generate . Unfortunately, those who build truly decentralized technologies and applications don't have enough financial resources to play with at the juncture of this cycle. The richest crypto brothers all have exchanges, brokerage services or some kind of lending platform.

Therefore, the desire for crypto-regulation may be realized, if any, in the form of overly complex, prescriptive rules that can only be afforded by large and wealthy centralized companies. This is because the only person who can explain the law will be professional corporate lawyers who come in and out of various letter regulators.

Is this what the broader crypto community really wants from the elves? Is it all about making Brian Armstrong and Larry Fink richer? I'm not a hater; they're just doing their jobs...maximize shareholder value by creating a monopoly structure that has unique benefits to their business. Maybe those as Coinbase and Blackrock shareholder readers want a Frankenstein crypto bill. But I believe this regulation will not change the status quo. Although it has no direct negative impact on encryption, it is not positive.

For all global builders who have moved to the United States because of their so-called crypto-friendliness, please be aware. If you acquiesce to such an outcome, your entrepreneurship will be doomed to fail. Monopoly enterprises are surrounded by an insurmountable regulatory wall and are not friendly to real innovation. They use their unique privileges to enter the system, expelling potential usurpers. As the founder of a startup, you may fly to Kennedy in Business Class, but you will definitely take Economy Class when you leave.

Make a wish

What wish will I make? I'll tell you. In my style, in order to understand my desires, I need to review some financial history and provide my explanation for certain events.

The biggest question is, why do elves satisfy my wishes or similar wishes? The elves and his lieutenants are the ones who truly rule the empire, and they will only satisfy my wishes and help them achieve their goals.

Trump's two most important deputies - US Treasury Secretary Scott Becent and US Secretary Mark Rubio - have the overall goal of reforming the global economic order to maintain the dollar and American hegemony. As I briefly mentioned in my previous article "Arthur Hayes: Why BTC may fall to $70,000 and then rise to $250,000", the dollar system is divided into two parts. That is, currency and reserve assets. The U.S. dollar has been a reserve currency since the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement, but reserve assets have changed over time.

Dollar system reserve assets change over time:

1944-1971: Gold

During this period, the value of the US dollar is fixed at $35 per ounce of gold. Certain sovereignty as peace ally of the United States are allowed to convert US dollars into gold at the above prices.

1971-1994: Petroleum

U.S. President Richard Nixon abandoned the gold standard in order to maintain the continued Vietnam War and the increased social welfare plan formulated by his former US President Lyndon Johnson. Reserve assets become petrodollars. Saudi Arabia was the first to explicitly agree to price oil in US dollars and use its dollar surplus to invest in U.S. Treasury bonds. Now the Treasury can issue bonds, which are supported primarily by oil flows from the largest marginal hydrocarbon producers.

1994–2025: Foreign Exchange Reserves of Global Exporting Countries

Throughout the 1980s, the United States was able to increase oil production and increase energy efficiency in its economy. The rise of other four Asian dragons (such as South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, etc.) means that the United States and Western Europe can produce goods at a low price. In 1994, a large-scale devaluation of the RMB was carried out and officially joined the mercantilist competition to reserve as much foreign hard currency as possible through exports. These exporters are allowed to sell goods to the huge Western consumer market as long as they use the United StatesJust use their dollar surplus to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds.

2025-? : Bitcoin/Gold

In most ancient times before the European Renaissance, it was the largest economy in the world; the stated goal was to regain glory for the people. Making America great again is not a unique idea of ​​America; people have been doing this since 1949.

To achieve this goal, transform from a low-cost, low-quality producer to a low-cost, high-quality producer. As people clearly realize that buying more and more Treasuries with surpluses further consolidated their status as the U.S. sub-power, and stopped accumulating Treasuries. According to the old self-evident agreement, a dollar of export surplus must purchase one dollar of government bonds. In the public data over the past 12 months, a $1 trillion export surplus was obtained, but allowed its Treasury reserves to fall by $14 billion. [1]

Other exports have also noticed this. Although most trade is settled in US dollars, most of the fast-growing Souths and trade with the United States are greater. De-dollarization is not about abandoning the dollar itself, but about investing surplus in assets that are not recognized by the elites under the US rule.

This reminds me of the dilemma faced by Trump's deputy. They need to create a new system that retains the dollar as the denominated currency for trade and invests in a reserve asset that allows them to maintain a well-functioning U.S. Treasury market. If they were really cruel enough, they would design a solution that quickly reduces the U.S. public debt to GDP ratio to around 30%, which is the level in 2000.

The world will no longer accept national debt savings. This is why a neutral reserve asset must be chosen. None of them tried to recommend replacing the US dollar with the fiat currency they created. This is because peace under the U.S. is declining, and it is directly related to the imbalance that is bound to arise due to the empire's role as a reserve currency issuer.

This is financial history, but before I express my wish, I want to talk about how one of the most influential TradFi money market strategists thinks the problem I described above can be solved.

DeepSeek

Zoltan Pozsar was a former employee of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in Dallas and a Credit Swiss Strategist. He is currently a blogger with readers of the financial elite in the American Peace Era. His solutions may be implemented and I will describe these solutions soon. Therefore, it is worth discussing these solutions and then discussing how I deviated from his ideas. Ultimately, I think his solution works for the 1980s, not 2025. Too many strategists who believe in American exceptionalism believe that regaining power and prestige to American peace is like the storyline of the movie Top Gun.

Recently, Top GunIn the remake, Tom Cruise is still alive, and with a slight adjustment, it can appropriately compare the current world relationship. Replace a nearly $75 million F-18 with a $50,000 drone from Iran’s Shahed, which is sold in the south of the world. Tom Cruise, in his 60s, is still flying these overpriced aircraft against a bunch of AI-connected drones for a fraction of the latter’s price.

This reminds me of DeepSeek. If you live only inside TikTok without knowing it, DeepSeek is a revolutionary AI Large Language Model (LLM) that performs as well as ChatGPT or Claude, but reduces training costs by 95%. It is open source, and so far, no CEO of a large tech giant, such as NVIDIA or Satya Nadella (Microsoft), said its results and costs were unreasonable.

DeepSeek is important because it was developed by a hedge fund in Hangzhou. In terms of high-performance semiconductors, it is under economic blockade by the United States. As the US thinks, entrepreneurs should not be able to train and deploy a LL.M. degree that performs close to training using high-performance chips designed in the US. DeepSeek's obvious success breaks the fantasy of "whoever invests the most can create the best performing Master of Laws". This further proves that need is the mother of all inventions. Economic sanctions cannot stop a small team of 200 determined entrepreneurs. If the ground offensive destroys the production capacity, the era of American exceptionalism may end. There is nothing wrong with being ordinary unless your entire identity is encased in the fictional concept of nationality and you have a sense of superiority just because you were born in “America.”

When non-American elites think they are inferior in nature, they follow orders. This helps American financial elites to formulate, such as what currency a person uses in trade and how their surplus invests. If non-Americans think they are equal, they may not surrender and accept orders from American diplomats. This is important for Zoltan's advice, as they are bilateral measures. Becente said "do this", and a Treasury would acquiesce. If the country refuses, nothing will happen. This is the fatal weakness of Zoltan's measures.

Zoltan's goal is the same as mine: to devalue US Treasury bonds. Furthermore, Zoltan correctly pointed out that the United States must extend the maturity of its debt stock and reduce the amount of interest paid. Let’s assume that Becente wants to reduce debt to 30% of GDP from 100%. If GDP remains the same, the actual value of debt needs to fall by 70%. Zoltan The general theme of various ideas is to require foreign Treasury holders to exchange short-term bonds for centennial bonds. Centennial bonds are not traded, butIf the country needs cash, it can be repurchased at face value. [2]

Let me explain the mechanism:

Suppose you, a global South, hold a 10-year Treasury bond worth $100, and the face value is also $100.

As requested by Bessent, you exchange your 10-year Treasury bond for zero-interest 100-year Treasury bond (centennial bond). The century-old bond is worth $30 and the face value is $100. I cleverly applied bond math to make this example easier to understand. Bonds with no coupon income and longer maturity throughout the entire expiration period have lower intrinsic value than bonds with shorter maturity.

The actual value of your debt has depreciated by 70%, but its face value is still $100.

If you are a good ally (Europe…a little suspicious) or a vassal (Philippines…I think Europe belongs here), you can call the Fed and exchange a century-old bond for a face value for the dollar for free. Imagine you need to buy some oil from Saudi Arabia in US dollars, and the actual value of a century-old bond is $30, but the Fed will give you $100 today, and there is no interest.

Any dollar surplus can only be invested in Century bonds that are traded in the future. You may not buy anything else.

This is a good and bad deal. The bad thing is that you suffer a 70% actual depreciation. You just agreed to destroy your savings. Worse, you also agree that the only place to get the liquidity of this debt is the issuer itself, not the global market. But on the other hand, if you perform well, you can get interest-free loans from the Fed.

There are several points to be pointed out, and in general, this shows that the deal is not accepted by many. For many, it is their biggest trading partner now, not the United States. American weapons cannot be sold because they use them to arm Ukraine. In addition, American weapons are just intermediate products that are re-exported, so why not go directly to the source?

My Wish

Can I improve Zoltan's ideas? sure.

The goal remains the same: devalue existing Treasury bonds, retain the US dollar as trading currency, and extend the Treasury bond maturity to 100 years. Another new goal is to make Bitcoin a global neutral reserve currency.

It is very important to choose an object that depreciates fiat currency. If you devalue anything that has a practical purpose, such as oil or food, you are at risk of social collapse due to inflation. The object of devaluation must be something else that will not make most civilians truly impoverish.

Zoltan Choose the depreciation time. You trade 10-year bonds for 100-year assets. The time value of the currency determines that what you get after 100 years is worth less than 10 years. But the other party must agree to the exchange. I think devaluation should be targeted at Bitcoin and can be done unilaterally, and will eventually produce the same effectfruit.

My Plan:

Step 1: Statement

Bestert delivered a speech announcing that the United States intends to redevelop the global reserve currency system, using the US dollar as the denominated currency, but the reserve assets are Bitcoin .

Step 2: Gradually depreciate

The Ministry of Finance will bid for Bitcoin at a US dollar price higher than the current market price, so that over time, the total market value of Bitcoin will be large enough to promote its global role The role of reserve assets. Specifically, if Bitcoin is to become as big as the Treasury market, the price of Bitcoin must rise to $1.8 million.

Example:

If BTCUSD = $100,000, Bessent says they will buy BTC for $200,000. The problem is that instead of providing the sellers with cash dollars, he offers them the 100-year zero-interest bond (centennial bond) on the chain. He also allows anyone who provides appropriate information about himself to buy back the bonds at face value cash without interest for one year. In fact, the BTC seller received the US dollar, but it was obtained as a loan. The real asset of the seller is a century-old bond.

Market reaction:

Bessent buys BTC at a price higher than the spot price, arbitrage can be made. Traders can borrow USD, buy BTC spot at a price lower than the Treasury bid, sell it to the Treasury in exchange for a century-old bond, buy back the century-old bond in USD, and then repay the loan. Since this is done on-chain and anyone around the world can trade, BTC will quickly rise to Bessent's bid.

Criticism:

Why do BTC holders sell BTC for shit-like Century bonds? Because the price is very high. This is also why people think it is a good idea to hand over BTC to BlackRock. If the price is right, most ideals and common sense will disappear.

Step 3: Treasury bonds due

Now, the Ministry of Finance has BTC in terms of assets and Century Bonds in terms of liabilities. The market will expect Bessent to raise bids again and take the lead. Now, the Treasury can sell its BTC in a dollar-profitable manner. Assume that the market transaction is BTCUSD = $300,000, but Bessent bought BTC for $200,000. This $100,000 profit can be used to buy back 10-year Treasury bonds. In fact, Bessent can extend the weighted average maturity (WAM) of Treasury bonds step by step.

Treasury bond holders will not be at a disadvantage because they know that Bessent will use trading profits to buy non-circulating Treasury bonds. This is crucial because it retains the pricing mechanisms for TradFi institutions that use Treasury bonds as collateral and loan solvency.

Step 4: Social Media Banking

In order to enterStep by step to consolidate the dollar's role in other regions, in which large U.S. social media platforms (Facebook and X) are banned, Bessent encourages Zuckerberg (Facebook CEO) and Musk (X CEO) to allow it in their apps Transfer of US dollar stablecoins within the program. Obviously, they should use Ethena's synthetic USDe. Now, the whole world, most importantly the global South, Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram are the main ways of online communication and business, which will use U.S. dollar banks. This completely offsets any attempts to de-dollarize. And leaders can’t stop it because if they try to take away the digital dopamine of civilians, revolutions will take place overnight. The United States cannot even ban TikTok owned because young people will burn any politicians related to the ban in the next election.

As the surplus of digital dollars in grass-roots systems continues to accumulate, these can be preserved in the form of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. If the price of Bitcoin gradually rises, small holders will be tempted to sell the Bitcoin back to the Ministry of Finance in exchange for centenary bonds. Now, U.S. debt is no longer held by a few, but by the lower-class people around the world. It is difficult to manage a few cats, but it is impossible to manage billions of cats. That is, it is unlikely that all debt holders will flee at the same time. Ultimately, the Treasury hopes its debt holders will be cautious.

Technical Blueprint

No matter what World Liberty Financial tells investors what they are building; that's what they should do. If you don’t know, World Liberty Financial (WLF) is a cryptocurrency institution associated with the Trump family. The goal here is to bring immediate change to the U.S. Treasury Department by leveraging Web3 and WLF to help build infrastructure. This eliminates the intermediary role of large “too big to collapse” banks, but in addition to triggering financial crises again and again, the need to print money to rescue them, and ultimately creating monetary inflation that destroys the soul of the empire, they actually do it for the empire. What? Just stroll through the legal financial capital of New York under the US rule. Nightclubs are brightly lit, but depressing scenes of poverty, homelessness and crime are filled with everyday life.

The Web3 technology stack should be powered by a public blockchain. You all know what will happen. Always closed! In this spirit, Aptos is the best choice. It is the fastest (800 milliseconds), the cheapest (USD 0.00005 per transaction) and the most reliable (99.99% uptime) public blockchain for high-performance financial transactions. And it shows that. According to RWA.xyz data, Aptos is quietly approaching the top three networks with the most institutional assets on the chain, and is working with Franklin Templeton and Brevan Howard has established partnerships with organizations such as Microsoft. Its MOVE architecture is designed internally by Facebook to handle financial transactions on the world's largest social network.

Maelstrom will not be available for free. To be clear, we have a lot of Aptos and Ethena.

The U.S. Treasury Department needs an on-chain exchange that can trade digital dollars, century bonds and Bitcoin.

First, the Ministry of Finance needs digital dollars. Tether's USDT and Ethena's USDe should be recognized digital dollars. USDT is just the dollar escrowed in the U.S. banking system. USDe is a long cryptocurrency plus short perpetual swaps, resulting in synthetic USD; all assets are entrusted on large cryptocurrency exchanges. It's about boys' work, so how do you benefit from choosing these two solutions? U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick owns a stake in Tether. WLF owns $ENA, a multimillion-dollar Ethena governance token. Equity and token holders will benefit if Tether and Ethena are selected as digital dollars approved by the U.S. Treasury Department. Self-interest is the driving force behind the operation of human civilization.

Secondly, the Ministry of Finance needs to tokenize Century Bonds. The Ministry of Finance issues tokens representing each bond (TSY100). TSY100 is available when purchased with encapsulated bitcoins on Aptos (you can already encapsulate bitcoins with Wormhole, Celer, and Layerzero). Next, a repurchase facility, TSY100, can be pledged and a USDT or USDe loan can be created.

Note: Technically, the Treasury cannot create USDT or USDe. So, if the pledger wants a USDT, the Treasury must mint USDT by remitting USD to Tether’s bank account. If the staker wants USDe, the Treasury must mint USDT and then mint USDe; all of this can be completed using the API transaction provided by Tether and Ethena.

Thirdly, the Ministry of Finance needs to establish a licensed Web3 money market exchange, which we call EagleSwap. The Ministry of Finance already has an authenticated service called ID.me (this is just an example of an online authentication service). This service can be expanded so that any user around the world can sign a message to add the Aptos wallet to the whitelist. When you connect an Aptos wallet to EagleSwap from your desktop or mobile device, if you are whitelisted, you can use USDT, USDe, TSY100 and packaged bitsExchange between coins. EagleSwap will soon be the most liquid place to trade these instruments, as Bessent is in charge of the world's largest fiat currency, buying and selling Bitcoin, USD and Treasury bonds.

The next phase of the connection is the connection between the U.S. Treasury and Broligarch-owned social media platforms. Facebook and X are two major social media candidates to launch crypto wallets to their global user base. By connecting users to EagleSwap in an abstract way, users can now transfer, trade and store digital dollars, century bonds and package Bitcoin. The most urgent need for the Global South is to trade in US dollars outside its TradFi banking system. The US dollar is a junk currency, but most other fiat currencies have Marburg Ebola virus. Likewise, connective tissue should be built using Aptos.

Broligarchs are certainly in power, judging by their top seats at Trump’s inauguration. They need to take the next step to suppress parasitic TradFi banks.

I have discussed unilateral devaluation of the US dollar and the technology to implement this. Next, I will discuss why the United States can have an unfair advantage in "production" of neutral reserve assets if it enacts the right legislation.

Neutral Reserve Assets

To allow elites under the management of the United States to accept this solution, the United States must have some unfair advantages in Bitcoin mining. To mine Bitcoin, energy must be consumed to solve random problems. The first question is, does the United States have cheap and abundant energy?

The United States has two advantages in energy production. First, a large number of unexplored hydrocarbon deposits are surrounded by an imaginary curve that humans call America. All that is required is the funding and approval for drilling. The best thing about drilling will ultimately provide energy for Bitcoin mining sites is that it doesn’t matter where the energy is located. Usually, energy is located far from the center of the population it serves. The transportation of hydrocarbons is sometimes more costly than the marginal cost of drilling. But if you deliver hydrocarbons to a power plant on site that only provides electricity to mine bitcoin, you don't have to pay for shipping. Many remote areas are rich in energy, so these places do not need to build controversial pipelines and channels to transport hydrocarbons, but only local power stations and Bitcoin mines. Alaska is remote and has abundant hydrocarbon reserves, and the climate is cold most of the year. This is the ideal place to build a Bitcoin mine powered by stranded energy.

The second commitment of the United States is a commitment to capitalism. I'm not saying it's morally good or bad; it's just a factual statement. The United States was founded by a group of tax evasion slave traders who created a constitution that guaranteed that their capital would increase value over time and allowed their descendants to remain in power economically and in a way. What elseWhat is the place that is more suitable for starting a multi-year project than drilling hydrocarbons and mining Bitcoin?

Another benefit is the construction of semiconductor wafer fabs in the United States. Several of Taiwan Semiconductor's state-of-the-art fabs in Arizona are about to be completed. Other foundries will be strongly encouraged to build fabs in the United States through subsidies and tax cuts. Bitcoin ASIC chips can be produced, so if global demand rises sharply with prices, there will never be a shortage.

There is a huge problem: Although fiat capital is treated world-class in the United States, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies do not. What we need is support for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies at a constitutional level. Bitcoin miners cannot conduct any kind of review, but lawmakers may require miners and/or node operators to conduct the review. Public crypto ledgers need to become a protected form of speech. This makes sense because public blockchains are digital immutable speech chains hosted on decentralized networks powered by miners’ burning electricity.

If the United States wants to be the best place to mine Bitcoin, it will need to create a simple bill of less than two hundred words:

"Resident on the blockchain or Cryptocurrencies and tokens powered by blockchain are forms of protected speech. All laws applicable to protecting freedom of speech apply to users or intermediaries of public blockchain technology. Cryptocurrencies and public blockchains are private, No agency may force intermediaries, participants or node operators of the blockchain itself to collect and generate data about participants and transactions. ”

There are encryption legislation that supports energy and licenseless innovations By adopting the U.S. will have the necessary conditions to include most of the global crypto activities in its territory. Given the substantial capital expenditures in energy production and ASIC chip manufacturing, coupled with the liquid fiat capital market and legal protections for peer-to-peer decentralized network operations, the United States will be home to most Bitcoin network hash rates. Neutral reserve assets will then be effectively produced within the United States.

In the end, it would be very difficult to overturn such legislation. Despite some politicians’ negative impact on large tech and social media companies, little progress has been made in repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1996, which gives tech platforms content hosted and carried out on their web. and immunity of activities. The status quo is really profitable. Similar expedient marriages can also form between cryptocurrencies and politicians, cryptocurrency companies and individuals who are in desperate need of high-paying jobs and increased tax bases.

Holder

If Becente could push the price of Bitcoin to more than $1.8 million, it would create the wealthiest person in human history. Some of the largest Bitcoin holders live in the United States or are companies in the United States. Less than a year after its Bitcoin ETF launched, BlackRock holds nearly 600,000 bitcoins, worth nearly $60 billion. Given that American power depends largely on wealth, this group will be able to exert great influence. If a totalAnd the Party implements these measures, and cryptocurrency holders will become loyal supporters for years or decades.

Remember, the goal of home is to be re-election. Except for Trump, everyone who agrees with his philosophy will be re-elected in 2026 or 2028. As a Republican, what better way to ensure that you remain in power than to make U.S. cryptocurrency holders extremely rich while further consolidating the dollar hegemony?

Global Reaction

Will other surplus countries accept Bitcoin as a reserve asset?

Yes.

Suppose Bitcoin has a market capitalization that is large enough to support trillions of dollars in transactions, then it has many advantages over Treasury bonds.

The code of Bitcoin cannot be changed unilaterally by anyone.

Even if some American miners try to hard fork the blockchain, excluding certain transactions or changing the total amount of Bitcoin mining will cause Bitcoin to fall to zero on the new chain, and all their assets will It immediately becomes worthless. The economic game theory behind the Bitcoin blockchain determines that this situation will not happen.

As long as you have an Internet connection, you can access and trade Bitcoins anytime, anywhere without permission.

Bitcoin is the purest monetary energy derivative in human imagination. Therefore, it will retain the energy value of the transaction surplus over time.

No one, even hopes to become a global reserve currency issuer and make its bond market a global reserve asset. The natural result is the requirement to open a capital account and the adverse impact on most people when you stop producing any actual product and just engage in financial engineering. This is certainly not "common prosperity". So a system that keeps the dollar for trade, or even bilaterally exchanges local currencies, but surplus is a step forward for everyone... Except for those traditional financial institutions that are too big to fail, they watch As one's own power and prestige gradually fades, decentralized finance is emerging.

Wishes come true

Stack Sats is my game, and so do I hope you. So if you find yourself sitting at the elf’s desk, wearing impressive clothes, make the right wishes.

Afterword

Cryptocurrency enthusiasts are one of the smartest people in the world and one of the most innocent people, but Trump is offering crash courses.

In less than 60 days, the cryptocurrency price rose from $70,000 to $110,000, based on every cryptocurrency enthusiast’s desire to realize all the way cryptocurrencies are regulated under the U.S. rule. The first problem with this idea is that in a bilateral exchange of value, you always want to receive the goods first and then pay. Trump and the Republicans first got what they wanted from cryptocurrencies: enough votes to win the presidency and a party majority in the House and Senate. It's time to "pay" and they and us degenerate speculators are notOn the same candle timeline for one second.

I say this because Trump is creating a task force, a Senate subcommittee, rather than taking action. When Trump wants to act, he will act. The 25% tariff on the largest trading partner of the United States was announced and implemented within a few days. The cancellation of ESG and DEI within the institution came quickly. I cite these examples to prove that Trump is not going to do something positive for cryptocurrency, but cryptocurrency regulation or Bitcoin strategic reserves are not his or the party’s top priorities. This is a shame because on the edge, cryptocurrency single issue voters put them in power.

As the global community quickly realizes that the United States has not changed so much because of Trump’s election, the price of cryptocurrencies will fall to the fourth quarter of 2024 levels. I still call for a retest of $70,000 to $75,000 Bitcoin.

What can help cryptocurrencies get out of this predicament? The Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury Department, Japan, etc. print money in some form, or allow specific legislation to innovate without permission. The Frankenstein Crypto Act will benefit Coinbase, BlackRock and Stonk investors. But for us cryptocurrency degraders, this will not take the market to new heights. This will not further achieve the goal of decentralization. This will be an insult to God, and the punishment will be swift and severe.

There is still hope. If you are a US cryptocurrency holder, leave quickly and let the representatives you selected know that you will not support it as usual. Email them, write or visit their local office. Politicians respond very positively to those who are interested. If you think Bitcoin strategic reserves are necessary, get furious now and don't just like X's comments. The problem is that our digital devices allow us to rage inside our own echo chambers, but rarely encourage us to take concrete actions in the real world that require a little effort. Everything you really value comes at a price. Simple button without encryption – open your eyes and be careful about what’s going on below.

Notes

[1] See the U.S. Treasury Monthly TIC Database.

[2] A repurchase agreement or a repurchase agreement is a loan in which one party exchanges assets such as bonds and other parties for cash with the other party at a certain interest rate. When maturity occurs, the bonds and cash will be exchanged back to the original holder.