Source: Zuoye Waibo Mountain

I originally thought that the map opened to Xinjiang was only exclusive to the island, but I didn't expect that the world-class overlord would follow this. Old example; I thought the ETH L2 ecology was chaotic enough, but I didn’t expect the world trade system to gradually break down; I thought Web3 settlement was just a dream talk, but I didn’t expect stablecoins to become the new pillar.

On February 1, 2025, Trump began to "fulfil his commitment" and began to increase tariffs on Mexico and Canada. In addition to Canadian energy products, goods imported from both countries increased by 25% additional tariffs.

Although Trump's style has always been extreme pressure, the final tariff may not come true, but there is no turning back. Trump's core economic idea is to replace tariffs with " Taxes” bring the United States back to a better era without IRS.

Of course, Americans are not stupid enough to believe Trump's words. They really think that increasing tariffs and price stability can exist at the same time. In the completely de-industrialized United States, any commodity is an import product. It’s just that from the American temple to the people, they have entered a certain quasi-war state. In order to win the final victory, temporary pain is necessary.

After the tariff war 2.0 started, the crypto market was the first to be hit, Bitcoin fell to 97,000, and the entire market entered a downward cycle, as weak as before.

Theoretically, the crypto market is a global market. Even if you are not optimistic about the US tariff war against the world, a large amount of funds should enter the market to avoid risks. However, the premise of all this is that the currency circle is indeed a global market.

Unfortunately, the emergence of DeepSeek has broken the stereotype that the US stock market is the global market. If everyone has a good memory, they will still remember that the technical report was released not long ago on December 26, 2024. At that time, the currency circle was the first industry to accept and recognize its advanced nature, earlier than the public.

Image description: AI Agent Overall trend, image source: CoinGecko< /figure>

AI Agent is still thriving at this time. The real crisis lies in the launch of $TRUMP and DeepSeek R1, from January 17 to January 20, short In three days, the world ushered in two shocks. The president will really issue coins and AI will temporarily lead the United States.

In other words, this wave of AI Agent narrative in the currency circle is based on two premises:

The AI ​​in the United States is unique in the world, and AIAgent is first Pax Americana AI Agent. The algorithm needs to be leading OpenAI, and the Nvidia chip on the hardware cannot be replaced; Sex, which does not return without brains, is still narrative economics, not PMF products.

The world line is closed and returned to the trade war.

In the fierce decline of the Giants of the Magnifice 7 giants such as Nvidda, the AI ​​Agent track, the chaos of the Ethereum Foundation and the Binan, seemed to be insignificant.

The price of Nvidia, the price of Bitcoin, if this is the Plan A and B of the American Revitalization Plan, then they are currently questioned. The only solution is to re -establish the global capital market's confidence in the United States.

Tariffs and trade wars will only be the first trick. The more core is the rise and interest rate cuts in the US stock market. The United States needs to cut interest rates domestically to stabilize the economy, but at the same time, as a global financial country, the stock market cannot There is a problem, and even it can only rise or not, so there will only be an option to rise in U.S. stocks.

In normal economic theory, both are not easy to get both, but the magical $TRUMP can bypass the existing fiscal-monetary system, and tariffs and trade wars will In the short term, Musk's layoffs will be created, and the remaining funds can only be collected into the capital market unless someone really goes to the United States to open a factory.

In this system, the short-term driving force is that tariffs need to work, so it can be inferred that even if Canada obtains compromise when Trump is in a position to Trump, Trump's tariff stations on the world will only become more and more intense.

In the long run, the fiscal role of cryptocurrencies will be inevitable, that is, either the US dollar—the Federal Reserve system will get rid of nominal independence and reach closer cooperation with Trump, or Trump will continue to use it. Unconventional means "direct" the US dollar.

But there is no doubt that for cryptocurrencies themselves, the current driving force is no longer blockchain technology or decentralization concept. After all, Vitalik itself admits that it will have ultimate control over the Ethereum Foundation. The real dominance of the circle is already a real force. The biggest CEX needs to take the lead, the USDT issuer and operator must take the lead, and even every cryptocurrency speculator must make its own choice.

The state of wartime, so it was true in 2025.

Looking at the main theme of 2025, the fragmentation of world trade has come true, regionalization has actually replaced the old globalization centered on the United States and the WTO mechanism, the only remaining What is below is that the US dollar is still the global currency.

In fact, Trump has warned the BRICS not to challenge the US dollar, but everyone understands that if the United States does not participate in global trade, thenIt is very strange to use non-trade currencies, but everyone understands that no currency or organization can test the status of the US dollar.

The entanglement is rare in the world.

The blockchain technology has been tried, and mBridge participated by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is one of the examples, focusing on settlement between CBDCs. Central banks and central banks and enterprises in many countries and regions have tried it. ;

But BIS cannot bridge the split world. BIS has withdrawn from the mBridge program. There is no other reason. Too many BRICS participated. BIS may be accused by the West of helping Russia and other countries evade sanctions. Only the Agorá program can be launched, with the participants being South Korea, Japan, the EU and other countries, which is clear at a glance, and the East and the West are clearly distinguished.

Web3 project continues to advance, and the PayFi concept has entered a long-term construction stage. Huma Finance hopes to open up cross-border settlement of enterprises in the post-Ripple era. Of course, the means can only be stablecoins, but the power of a project After all, it is limited. B2B has become the most mainstream choice and has no chance of getting along with ordinary people.

Web3 Super Individuals are at a loss. In the era of CEX explosion, they can beat the big pie, ether, and even BNB. However, in the era of PVP, super Individuals need to face the super fast reaction of robots and send The cannibalism offensive of the coin group, the unscrupulous PUA of the unscrupulous VC, the old world has finally disappeared.

Last year, Web3 settlement based on stablecoins may be the biggest trend in the industry, but it is hard to say now that after the AI ​​Agent was shut down, the entire industry entered a boring and lengthy soap opera model, and began a complaint model of family matters. VC said that his profits were hard to achieve 6 times, and CEX said that he had achieved a market value of 100 billion and a trading volume of 100 trillion.

There is no real empathy in this world, and humans cannot empathize with their own kind, but before the epic pullback of the US stock market, I hope there is still a chance for us.

From any perspective, this DeepSeek surprise attack is just a preview of the next long and intense battle, and hopefully we can all be prepared before that.