Encryption succeeds in taking a seat in the White House.

According to consistent rules, the prospective president of the United States will take intensive actions to hand over certificates of vote to major industries and the people one month before taking office, and calls himself Bitcoin President Trump did not disappoint the industry this time.

Since his election, the encryption industry has been blessed one after another. The SEC chairman has been replaced, the pro-encryption cabinet has come to power, and the encryption committee has been established. , and reserve assets are shining brightly. Just a few days ago, good news about encryption came from the White House again.

On December 6, Trump officially appointed PayPal co-founder David Sacks as the "White House Chief of Artificial Intelligence and Cryptocurrency Affairs." This was also the first time for cryptocurrency Obtaining an exclusive seat in the White House, and combining cryptocurrency with the booming artificial intelligence, further highlights the president's strategic ambitions for the encryption field.

The key responsibilities of the position can be seen in the appointment letter. Trump Mentioned that David will formulate the fields of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency, which are crucial to the future competitiveness of the United States. His goal is to make the United States a global leader in these two fields. David will also push for a clear legal framework to provide the cryptocurrency industry with the clarity it has long needed to ensure it can thrive in the United States.

It can be seen that developing a regulatory framework for emerging industries and assets with blurred boundaries will be David's core goal. At this point, the encryption industry will truly stand at the starting point of a new era of regulation.

For such an important position, the person appointed is not an ordinary person.

David Sacks (David Sacks) is a member of the famous "PayPal Mafia". In 1999, he joined Confinity, an e-commerce startup founded by Max Levchin and Peter Thiel, and changed its name to "PayPal" after the merger. Later, he successfully served as PayPal's first product leader and led PayPal's revenue growth from zero to more than $100 million in 2001, earning global acclaim.

After PayPal, Sacks founded social enterprise software company Yammer and continued his activities as CEO until 2012, when Yammer was acquired by Microsoft for $1.2 billion.

At the end of 2017, Sachs co-founded Craft Ventures with Bill Lee, began his transformation from entrepreneur to investor, and has been operating the fund to this day.

In 2020, Sacks created the business technology review podcast "All In Podcast". According to Chartable data, his podcast is currently the third most popular on Apple Podcasts technology podcast.

Just this year, Sachs also launched an AI work chat application called Glue. He has frequently expressed support for a freer ecosystem to promote the development of AI companies and has argued that much of the Internet should be available for AI training under fair use conditions.

Thiel and Musk have a close relationship and have their own unique understanding of emerging technologies and freedom of speech. In Silicon Valley, where the Democratic Party is concentrated, David is uncharacteristically the spokesman for conservatives, especially in the Russia-Ukraine war and his opposition to the censorship of technology platforms.

From Trump's point of view, just like other big guys, Sachs did not side with Trump at the beginning. During the Capitol Hill incident in 2021, he bluntly stated that Trump had "lost the qualification to be a candidate again." At the beginning of this year's election, Sachs's choice was Republican Congressman DeSantis, and then Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and did not prioritize Trump.

According to Wall Street Insights, the key to Sachs falling into Trump's arms was Peter Thiel's strong recommendation. Peter, who has always been a die-hard supporter of Trump, introduced Vance to Sachs in 2021 to promote Vance's fundraising. It can be considered that it was the strong stand of Sachs and Peter that led Trump to choose Vance as his deputy this term.

In this context, in June this year, Sachs published a long article "Why Do I Support Trump?" on the X platform. ”, the article detailed the four sins of Biden’s party in the economic, diplomatic, immigration and legal wars, and made it clear that it would officially become a supporter of Trump. At that time, this was also the time when Trump regained the business world. Strong supportOne of the cases.

Since then, Sacks has continued to use his influence to canvass votes for Trump, raising as much as 12 million in his first fund-raising event on June 6. After that, Trump began to appear in Sacks' blog. Sachs also made remarks to Trump such as "it is too difficult to do business" during the Biden administration. In terms of model, Sachs and Musk's subsequent support models are quite similar, except that Musk invested more time and money, which may be related to the degree of core interests involved.

The costs paid were repaid after Trump came to power, and Sachs and Musk successfully entered Trump's cabinet. Although he has not yet taken office and the actual execution content of the department is not yet known, as the "White House Chief of Artificial Intelligence and Cryptocurrency Affairs", Sacks does not need to go through the Senate confirmation process and can already become the core decision-maker of encryption in some directions, so he is The market is known as the “Crypto Czar”.

Since you are the person in charge of encryption, your professionalism in the encryption field is also extremely important. Sacks is a veteran crypto participant himself. As early as 2017, Sachs affirmed the value of Bitcoin in an interview, saying that Bitcoin is realizing PayPal's original vision of a "new world currency", but in a decentralized form. It also took the lead in proposing that the regulatory agency SEC should divide supervision based on the nature of tokens and classify them into protocol coins and asset coins.

From the perspective of investment structure, Sachs is also involved in encryption. According to RootData statistics, Craft Ventures, which he is responsible for, currently has 12 crypto investments, covering dYdX, Lightning Labs, River Financial, Kresus, Set Protocol, FOLD, Harbor, Handshake, Voltage, Galoy, Lumina and Rare Bits.

What is quite interesting is that the first good thing after Sachs took office may be SOL. In 2018, Sachs invested in Multicoin and indirectly became a major supporter of SOL. In 2022, he said that Silicon Valley elites are betting on Solana, believing that it will eventually surpass Ethereum. Just last December, Sacks clarified that he did not sell SOL after the FTX incident.

Overall, as an investorStill a holder, Sachs has a certain degree of professionalism and familiarity with the encryption field. Considering that he once mentioned regulatory suggestions, holding this position is worthy of his name. As far as the crypto market is concerned, the industry has used prices to warmly welcome the new czar. As early as the end of November, when the candidate for the position emerged, Bitcoin hit $94,000.

In terms of performance of duties, according to reports from Bloomberg, similar to Musk, Sachs will serve as a "special employee", and this is a part-time job. I am required to divest or publicly hold assets, and the maximum working hours per year is 130 days. Craft Ventures also confirmed that Sachs will not be leaving the venture capital firm. At present, the operating model and funding source of this position are still unclear. Some industry insiders said, "This role may be a bit embarrassing, because the actual operation relies more on relationships and resources, rather than the authority brought by formal position appointments."< /p>

Suresh Venkatasubramanian, who previously served as Biden’s White House artificial intelligence adviser, also said that science and technology The responsibilities of the office director are roughly the same as this position. The only difference is supervision. The former requires segregation of assets, while the latter is held by someone with a large investment in the field of responsibility, which presents an obvious conflict of interest.

No matter how the outside world questions it, the encryption industry will undoubtedly become one of the areas that will benefit the most from Trump’s taking office, from the actual composition of the cabinet and Congress to the top-level design. In actual implementation, encryption will usher in a clearer and looser regulatory path. From the bill side, key bills in the blockchain field such as SAB121 and FIT21 are expected to be passed. In terms of supervision, after the SEC leadership change, it remains to be seen whether the lawsuits surrounding Ripple, Coinbase and other companies will stop considering the SEC's revenue generation for the Ministry of Finance. However, the diversity of the product side will inevitably increase, and crypto assets are expected to be Reach more users during your tenure.

As for what will happen to the market in the future? In the short term, we still need to pay close attention to changes in external news, but in the long term, liquidity is still the core of the continued bull market.

The news is still focused on Trump. According to general rules, before officially taking office, the president will tend to release more benefits in response to voters, but after taking office, he needs to return to his roots. The intensity and order of implementation of various projects are crucial to economic fundamentals and asset direction.

At this stage, Trump’s commitment to encryption has been mostly completed. In addition to the extremely difficult reserve to achieve,There has been progress in personnel appointments and supervision. Therefore, before Trump officially takes office, expectations for the crypto direction are somewhat supported, the good news will continue, and the overall market will still maintain a strong bullish sentiment. However, considering the arrival of the Christmas month, liquidity in the United States has decreased, and the degree of FOMO will also decrease. If the interest rate cut meeting on December 19 does not go as expected by the market, Bitcoin, which has concentrated external liquidity a year ago, will most likely experience a correction. . Citing data from on-chain analyst @Phyrex_Ni, Bitcoin’s core holding area is concentrated around $95,000.

On January 20 next year, Trump will give an inauguration speech and announce a series of executive orders, providing clues to the order in which he will proceed. Assets are also likely to behave in a regular manner, and they should fluctuate more to choose a direction before taking office. In January and February, the president will deliver a State of the Union address on a certain date, expressing his views on the analysis of the national situation, legislative agenda and other priorities, once again reflecting his changes in governing philosophy and attitude. Taking into account the support in January and the arrival of the financial reporting season in February, before February 2025, if Trump's attitude had not changed drastically, the crypto market would have remained active based on past support.

Important nodes, source: CICC Research Department

But after the first quarter of next year, as the good news is gradually digested, the fundamentals led by the Federal Reserve will become the main direction. Compared with previous terms, Trump’s current term has the characteristics of forming a cabinet quickly and attaching importance to loyalty. The direction also shows a consistent and even tougher trend, including domestic tax cuts, external tax increases, immigration control, old-school policies, etc. The certainty of energy return is already high. Since immigration and tariffs do not require congressional approval, implementation time is faster. Tax cuts may be completed within the year. Energy is highly dependent on bipartisan cooperation, which will take a relatively long time.

It can be seen that Trump’s ideas are strongly related to pushing up inflation, especially immigration and tariffs, which will bring inflationary pressure in the short term. The market generally believes that after Trump takes office, the era of high inflation and slow growth will come, and interest rate cuts may enter the slow lane. From the perspective of the Federal Reserve, after cutting interest rates by 75 basis points this year, Fed Chairman Powell has stated that "there is no reason to rush to speed up the pace of interest rate cuts." Morgan Stanley also predicted this, saying that the Federal Reserve will remain cautious about the future path of interest rates and will suspend interest rate cuts in the second quarter of next year. As the economy slows down, employment growth will almost stagnate in the second half of 2026, when the Federal Reserve is expected to restart interest rate cuts. Affected by this, if liquidity shrinks, the crypto bull market will also press the pause button. The impact on Bitcoin will be relatively limited, but the contraction of the more sensitive copycat market will be more obvious.Need to pay high attention to the risks.

Of course, market forecasts may not be accurate. The external environment and industry cycles are too broad, and any detail will trigger a butterfly effect-like wave. But what is certain is that, driven by the dual drive of crypto capitalization and decentralization, the crypto industry will move from a flash in the pan to a long-lasting one.