Original title: The ugly

Author: Arthur Hayes, founder of Bitmex; compile: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

"The ugly" is a three articles The first part. "The Good" will pay attention to the rise of alumin coins. "The Bad" will discuss the risk of being deceived by Trump in cryptocurrency supervision.

Disclaimer: I am an investor and consultant of Ethena. Ethena is the parent company of $ usde stable currency that I mentioned many times in this article.

"Stop -keep on this hillside for 30 meters", a few weeks ago, when we ski on a dormant volcano, my guide suddenly slowed down the speed. This is my instructions. Before that, climbing up the hillside was always cold. However, the situation changed at a place at an altitude of 1600 meters.

When we stop on the ridge line together, my guide said: "The last paragraph makes my stomach roll. The risk of avalanche is too high, so we start skiing from here." When I noticed When the snowy changes are slightly and profound, my feelings are different. That's why I always ski with a certified guide. A seemingly harmless terrain may be sealed in the frozen grave. People never know whether skiing can cause avalanche on a certain terrain. However, if the probability of perception exceeds people's comfort zone, then the wise approach is to stop, re -evaluate, and change the route.

At least in the first quarter, in my first article this year, I showed my optimism all over the world. But with the end of January, my excitement disappeared. I was upset by the subtle movements between central bank balance sheet levels, bank credit expansion speed, the relationship between the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond/stock/bitcoin prices and the crazy $TRUMP memecoin price movement. This feeling is similar to the feeling of me in the end of 2021 (just before the cryptocurrency market falls to the bottom).

History will not be repeated, but always rhyme. I don't believe this bull cycle is over; however, from the forward-looking probability, I think we're more likely to fall to $70,000 to $75,000 and then rise to $250,000 by the end of 2025, rather than in the absence of no Continue to rise without substantial callback. Therefore, Maelstrom has increased the pledge of Ethena $ USDE it held to a record level and continues to profit at several cottage. We are still clean, but if I feel correct, then we will prepare a lot of funds to buy it at the low and many high -quality cottage coins at Bitcoin.

Due to the current bullish mood so high, such a range of callbackIt will be unpleasant. Trump continued to improve his emotions by pardoning Ross Ubrih through pardon, and inspired the spirit of encryption through his recent Memecoin. But in addition to Memecoin's launch, most of these things are expected. The rest of this article will discuss charts and monetary announcements that cause me to reduce Maelstrom cryptocurrency holdings.

U.S. currency

There are two firm views that have affected my views on US currency:

-10-year national bond yields will rise to 5% to 6%, and It will trigger a small financial crisis.

-The US Federal Reserve Director hates Trump, but it will take necessary measures to protect the financial system under the United States.

Let me explain the interaction between these two views.

10 -year Treasury bonds

US dollar is the world's reserve currency, and U.S. Treasury bonds are reserve assets. This means that if you have extra dollars, buying Treasury bonds is the safest place to store them and get profits. Accountants believe that Treasury bonds are risk-free, and therefore, financial institutions are allowed to borrow funds and assets using almost unlimited leverage. Finally, if the value of government bonds falls rapidly, accounting fairy tales will evolve into economic nightmares, and system importance financial participants will go bankrupt.

10 -year Treasury bonds are the benchmark for the pricing of most medium and long -term fixed income tools (such as mortgage loans or car loans). It is the most important asset price in the dirty legal system, which is why the 10 -year yield is so important.

In view of every financial crisis since 1913 (the day the Federal Reserve was founded) has been “solved” by printing the dollar, leverage has accumulated in the system for more than a century. As a result, the implementation yield of large financial institutions will gradually decrease when bankruptcy. When the 10-year Treasury bond briefly broke that level, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Bad Gurl Yellen initiated a storied T-bills issue as a secret way to print money. The direct result is that the 10 -year Treasury yield drops to 3.60%, which is a local low in this cycle.

If 5% is this level, why does the yield rose from about 4.6% to more than 5%? To answer this question, we need to understand who is the border buyer of the Treasury bond.

As we all know, the United States is issuing debt at an unparalleled pace in imperial history. The total debt is currently at $36.22 trillion, up from $16.70 trillion at the end of 2019. Who is buying these garbage?

Let's take a look at common buyers.

The Fed -from 2008 to 2022, it implemented a printed money called quantitative loose (QE). It purchased a trillions of dollars in US Treasury bonds. However, from 2022Beginning the year, it turned off the money printing machine, which is called quantitative tightening (QT).

U.S. Commercial Bank -Before being hit by temporary inflation and the Federal Reserve's fastest rate of interest rate hikes in 40 years, they purchased U.S. Treasury bonds at the highest historical price and suffered severe damage. To make matters worse, in order to abide by the annoying capital adequacy ratio rules stipulated in the Basel agreement III, they cannot buy US Treasury bonds unless pledge is more expensive. As a result, their balance sheets have been fully used, and they cannot buy more US Treasury bonds.

Major foreign surplus -I am talking about oil exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia and exporters such as Japanese and Japanese. As their dollar earned in global trade surged, they have not purchased U.S. Treasury bonds. For example, as of November 2024, the trade surplus was $ 962 billion. During the same time, the Treasury bonds held by about $ 14 billion was reduced.

In view of the litter of debt crisis in the throat of US bonds into the world's financial system.

Let us applaud the relative value (RV) hedge fund. These funds are registered in the British, Cayman Islands, Luxembourg and other places for tax reasons. They are marginal buyers of government bonds. How do I know? The recent quarterly refinancing announcement (QRA) of the Ministry of Finance stated clearly that they are marginal buyers who restrict yields. In addition, if you carefully read the monthly TIC report released by the Ministry of Finance, you will find that the above areas have accumulated a lot of holdings.

The working principle of the transaction is as follows. As long as the transaction price of cash government bonds is lower than its corresponding listing futures contract, hedge funds can be arbitrage through the basis. [1] The foundation difference is very small, so the only way to make money is to trade billions of US dollars. Hedge funds do not have so many idle cash, so they need to use the banking system to provide leverage. Hedge funds use cash to buy bonds, but before delivering cash, a buyback agreement (repo) is required with a large bank. Hedge funds deliver bonds and receive cash. This cash is then used to pay for bond purchase fees. Look, hedge funds bought bonds with other people's money. The only money paid by hedge funds is the deposit of bond futures exchanges such as Chicago Commodity Exchange.

Theoretically, the RV hedge fund can buy countless treasures, provided that the following situations are established:

-Bed the bank's have sufficient balance sheet capacity to promote repurchase.

-Pucking yields are accessible. If the yield is too high, the basic transactions will be unprofitable, and hedge funds will not buy government bonds.

-Shang deposit requirements are still very low. If hedge funds must pay more margin to use futures contracts to hedge their bond purchases, it will purchase less bonds. Hedge funds have limited capital; if most of their capital is occupied by exchanges, their trading volume will decrease.

RV hedge fund buyers are at risk due to the above factors.

SilverThe balance sheet/repurchase yield:

According to the Basel agreement III, the balance sheet is a limited resource. The supply and demand relationship determines that the closer the supply is, the higher the price of the balance sheet space. Therefore, with the issuance of more debts issued by the Treasury, RV hedge funds have more basic transactions, which requires more repurchases. Using more balance sheets, at some point, the price of repurchase overnight will soar. Once this happens, the purchase will suddenly stop, and the national treasury market will begin to collapse.

Exchange margin requirements:

Simple, the greater the asset volatility, the higher the margin requirements. When bond prices fall, volatility rises. If the price of bonds falls/rising yields, volatility (see the MOVE index) will soar. When this happens, the margin requirements for bond futures will increase, and the purchase volume of bonds of RV hedge funds will be reduced rapidly.

These two factors interact in the way of reverse. Then the question becomes the problem. Is there a way to use currency to cut off Gordon's knot and let the RV hebn fund continue to raise funds for the state treasury?

Of course, our currency master can always implement accounting tricks to resolve the financial crisis. In this case, the Federal Reserve can suspend the replenishment of leverage (SLR). The SLR that is suspended from the Treasury holding and related repurchase allows banks to use unlimited leverage.

After the SLR is exempted, the following situations will occur:

-Basis can purchase any amount of government bonds without mortgage to release the space on the balance sheet.

-With an unlimited balance sheet, banks can promote repurchase at affordable prices.

The Ministry of Finance has obtained two marginal buyers: commercial banks and RV hedge funds. Bond prices rose, yields decreased, and margin requirements were reduced. Prosperity, happy day.

If the Fed is really generous, it can stop QT and restore QE. There are three marginal buyers.

What I wrote is not news to the Federal Reserve or the Treasury Department. For years, the banking community has been begging for the same waiver as the SLR waiver they received during the 2020 flu crisis. The latest Financial Ministry of Borrowing Consultation Committee (TABCO) report clearly states that they need SLR exemptions, and the Fed needs to start quantitative easing again to repair the government bond market. The only thing that lacks is the willingness of the Federal Reserve, so I hold a second point.

The remarks of the Fed's

former and current Federal Reserve Director and the Fed's actions during President Biden made me believe that the Fed will be able to defeat Trump's agenda. However, the obstruction of the Federal Reserve is limited. If large financial institutions' bankruptcy or empire's solvency needs to change bank regulatory regulations, reduce currency prices or print banknote printing, the Fed will take corresponding actions without hesitation.

What did they say to Trump?

There are two sentences hereIntroduction, the first sentence comes from the former Federal Reserve Director William Dudeli (served as Chairman of New York from 2009 to 2018), and the second sentence comes from Powell:

US President Donald Trump's trade The war continues to weaken the confidence of enterprises and consumers and worsen the economic prospects. This artificially manufactured disaster caused the Federal Reserve to fall into a dilemma: should it reduce losses by providing offset sexual stimuli, or refuse to cooperate? ... officials can make it clear that the central bank will not rescue one that constantly make mistakes in trade, which clearly shows that Trump will have the consequences of his behavior ... Some people think that the election itself belongs to the Federal Reserve's authority scope of power. Essence After all, Trump's re -election can be said to threaten the independence of the United States and the global economy and the Federal Reserve and its ability to achieve employment and inflation goals.

- The Fed should not condone Donald Trump, William Dudeli

At the press conference of the meeting, as asked as asked When the Fed thinks of Trump's recent victory, Powell said that "Some people have indeed taken a very preliminary step, and began to include high conditional estimation of the economic impact into their predictions." This is interesting. Before the election, a group of economy was estimated to be used to reduce interest rates and help Harris, but due to Trump's victory, another group of estimates are now considering. In fact, the Federal Reserve should have used the same estimate in the months before the election. But what do I know? I am just a cryptocurrency fool.

What did they do for Biden?

At the beginning, inflation is temporary. Remember? Powell seriously claimed that the surge in inflation rates directly caused by the most issuance of the most banknotes in the shortest time in American history is just a flash in the pan and will disappear soon. Four years have passed, and the inflation rate has always been higher than their own, stupid, and dishonest inflation indicators. They used this sophistry to prevent unavoidable interest rate hike until 2022, because they knew that it might lead to a financial crisis or economic recession. They are not wrong; the Fed is directly responsible for the regional banking crisis in 2023.

Then, the Federal Reserve was stupid. Yellen has issued more national library vouchers since September 2022 to exhaust the inverse repurchase plan (RRP), thereby completely offset their currency tightening movement. At least, the Fed can oppose the Ministry of Finance because they are allegedly independent of the federal.

The Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes in September 2023, when the inflation rate was still higher than the goal. In September 2024, they cheered for money printing through the interest rate cut cycle. Is the inflation rate lower than their goals? not yet.

The Fed talked about suppressing inflation, but when keeping funds flowing at a tolerable price and stimulating the financial asset market, the Fed took action. This is needed, because Bayon has been messed up from the beginning. It seems afterwards, Biden said a liar saidThe law may be correct. In any case, in order to prevent the Republican Party from regaining the House of Representatives and the Senate and preventing Trump from winning the re -election in 2024, the Federal Reserve does not hesitate to prevent financial and economic crises at all costs.

What did they do for the system?

In some cases, the Federal Reserve surpasses the scope of duties to help the Democratic Party. For example, in order to cope with the regional banking crisis in early 2023, the Fed has established the Bank's Term financing Plan (BTFP). The interest rate hike system and the subsequent plunge caused a financial disaster. The bank lost money at the government bonds purchased at the highest price at the highest price from 2020 to 2021. The Fed noticed this kind of corruption. After allowing three cryptocurrency -friendly banks to close to appease Pokkamamitas (American Senator Elizabeth Volun), the Fed in essence is the US Bank's balance sheet worth $ 4 trillion Treasury bonds and mortgages support securities support.

It seems that BTFP may be a bit overkill. However, the Fed hopes that the market has no doubt that if the financial system under the United States is facing a huge threat, it will first develop a person and go all out to launch a banknote printing machine.

The traitor Powell

Powell is a traitor because he was appointed by Trump in 2018. This is not surprising, because all the strength of Trumpism was weakened by a group of unfaithful deputy during his first term. No matter whether you think this is good or bad; the key is that the relationship between Trump and Powell is toxic on this node. After Trump recently defeated Biden, Powell immediately calmed down any doubts about resigning; he intends to have a term of office until May 2026.

Trump often believes that the Fed must reduce interest rates in order to make the United States great again. Powell responded in his way that the Fed is “data-dependent,” meaning they will do whatever they want and tell the interns in the basement to make up some economic bullshit to prove their decision is right. Remember the equivalent price of DSGE, IS/LM, and Li Jiatu? Unless you work in the Marriner Eccls building, all these are nonsense.

How do Trump let the Fed stand on him? He allows a small financial crisis. The following is a possible solution:

Continue to appear huge deficits, which requires a large amount of debt of the Ministry of Finance. Trump chooses Elon Musk to lead the fact department without actual power, which can explain the problem. Musk wouldn't be as rich as he did not provide billions of dollars in funding to Tesla in the form of subsidies and tax cuts. The efficiency department is not the federal department, because the creation of a department requires the approval of Congress. This is a glorious consultant, reporting to Trump. Musk's power is purely the cause. The cause is very powerful, but they will not reduce medical benefits and national defense expenses; only the direct actions of legislators can complete these difficult tasks. Why do politicians do this and endanger itAre they re -election in 2026?

Fighting the debt limit immediately. The predecessable financial minister Barst has many tools to prevent the date of closing. Yellen used these tools when fighting the upper limit of debt in the summer of 2023. The withdrawal of the Treasury General Account (TGA) provided fiscal stimulus to the market and adequately funded for months; this delayed the time when politicians had to reach a compromise to allow the Treasury to borrow again. Bason can stand by, without spending TGA money. The national bond market will be paused, and intense traders will sell government bonds because they are worried about breach of contract.

This flammable cocktail formula will quickly push the 10 -year government bond yield to more than 5%. If Bason confirms the date of debt limit and his department will not cut TGA to maintain operation for several months, then this may occur within a few days.

As the yield of government bonds soared, the stock market will plummet, and some large financial institutions in the United States or overseas will face tremendous pressure. The Fed will be trapped. In order to save the system, they will take the following parts or all measures:

-Provide SLR exemptions for national debt

- Quantitative loose

-Ray restart quantitative loose

Trump will then praise the Fed's commitment to the United States, and the financial market will be reappeared.

The problem I described above may evolve into a crisis caused by the uncertainty of the debt limit; the choice of timing depends on Trump. The longer the crisis started during Trump's ruling, the more likely he and his Republican Party would be accused of being the culprit of the crisis, and this crisis was largely due to the leveraged effect accumulated during the Bayidon period. In terms of transaction terms, Trump must completely solve it. Voters must blame Biden and the Democrats for the crisis, not Trump and Republicans—otherwise Trumpism and making America great again will be another American movement that has been dead, which lasted less than two years Until the Democratic Party re -controlled power in the mid -2026 election.

The blowout of money printing will come, but only when the Fed and the Trump team are standing together. The Federal Reserve is not the only game in the city; is the banking system creating credit?

No, as you see from my custom bank credit index, it is the sum of the bank reserves and other deposits and liabilities held by the Federal Reserve.

Credit must flow. If the speed of credit creation is disappointing, the market will pierce Trump's impact. We will discuss it next.

economic stimulus measures

In the third quarter of last year, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a series of measures to stimulate economic. They cut off the requirements for bank deposit reserve, began to purchase bonds (CGB), and helped localities to reintegrate their debt burden. This was just several measures. This triggerThe crazy rebound in the A -share market.

If you brush Tiktok's brain every day, you can't figure out when the People's Bank of China and the central government announced that the currency has expanded and swelling, and I will help you come out. The above is the Shanghai Comprehensive Index.

I have pointed out that if necessary, prepare to depreciate the RMB, which is the result of the RMB credit expansion plan.

The US dollar against RMB is allowed to appreciate, which means that the US dollar will strengthen and the RMB will weaken. Everything is performed as planned, but in early January, the route changed.

On January 9, the People's Bank of China announced that it would end its bond purchase plan. As can be seen from the figure above, the People's Bank of China intervened in the market and began to manipulate the strong RMB. On the one hand, the central bank cannot alleviate the financial situation in the use of RMB, and on the other hand, it can destroy the RMB to strengthen the currency.

Japan's interest rate

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) fulfilled its commitment to continue to raise interest rates. At the recent meeting, they raised interest rates by 0.25% to 0.50%. The consequences of the normalization plan of interest rates are the stagnation of the central bank's asset liability sheet.

With the rise of interest rates, the yield of Japanese bonds (JGB) has also reached the lowest level in nearly 15 years.

The increase in the number of currencies is much slower than that of modern times, but its price is rising rapidly. This is not an appropriate time for the price increase of legal pricing financial assets.

The dollar against the yen is touched. I believe that in the next 3 to 5 years, the dollar will reach 100 yuan against the dollar (the dollar is weakened and the yen will strengthen). As I have written widely, the strengthening of the Japanese yen has led Japanese companies to return trillions of dollars in capital. Anyone who borrowed the Japanese yen must sell assets because their holding costs soared. The main concern of the legal financial market is how this selling on how to sell a negative impact on the price of national debt. This is the long -term structural backwind that BESSENT must cope. It will eventually use a printing US dollar issued through a certain exchange quota tool, but before that, it must feel pain to provide cover to provide the required currency support. Corrosion correlation

I have explained why the legal liquidity status of the US dollar, RMB and yen is not conducive to the appreciation of the price of legal financial assets. Now, let me explain how this impact on the Bitcoin and encrypted capital markets.

The concerns of bond investors

We need to discuss what bond investors worry about in peace under the rule of the United States. I will spend some time from a outstanding chart made from Bianco Research to draw conclusions, which shows the price correlation between 1 -year and 5 -year stocks and bonds.

Inflation was a nightmare for American investors from the 1970s to the early 21st century. Therefore, the price of stocks and bonds is interrelated. With inflation and raging and rightThe economy has a negative impact, and investors sell bonds and stocks at the same time. After joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, the situation changed. American capitalists can outsourcing American manufacturing bases in exchange for better corporate profits, while growth rather than inflation has become the main concern. In this case, the decline in bond prices means that growth is accelerating, so stocks should perform well. Stocks and bonds have become irrelevant.

As you can see, the one -year correlation has risen sharply in 2021. At that time, inflation reappeared during the influenza 19 crisis and set the highest level in 40 years. In the early days of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle in early 2022, bond prices fell simultaneously with stocks. The relationship between stocks and bonds returned from the 1970s to the 1970s. Inflation is the biggest concern.

When the Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes in September 2023 and started to cut interest rates in September 2024, the performance of 10 -year US Treasury bonds clearly stated that this was still higher than 2% of the inflation rate at that time. Target.

The following three charts: The upper limit of interest rate (white) and 10 -year government bond yield (yellow)

As you can see, the market is worried about inflation because although the Fed is relaxing the currency conditions, the yield is still rising.

Compare the first two charts with the previous interest rate cut cycle. The last interest rate reduction cycle began at the end of 2018 and ended in March 2020. As you can see, the Federal Reserve has a decline in yields when paying interest rates.

No matter what others say, currency prices will always affect legal assets. Technology stocks are very sensitive to interest rates. You can see them as a bond with unlimited periods or duration. Simple mathematics tells you that when you increase the discount rate of unlimited cash flow, its current value will decrease. When the yield of financial dysfunction reaches the execution price, these mathematics will surface.

The above figure shows the contrast between the Nasdaq 100 index (white) and 10 -year US Treasury yield (yellow). At a level of about 5%, as the yield rose, the stock market fell, and the stock market rebounded sharply when the yield decreased. This is part of the financial system focusing on inflation rather than growth.

Let's put these together. The US dollar, RMB and yen can be swapped in the global financial market. They all entered large American technology stocks in some form. You may not like it, but this is true. I just gradually explained why at least in the short term, the United States and and Japan did not speed up the creation of legal currencies. In some cases, it also increased the price of currency. As the world economy is decoupled, the inflation rate is still high, and it may rise further in the near future. This is why I expect that the 10 -year yield will rise. If the stock market rises because of peopleWorries about inflation and US debt have increased rapidly without seeing border buyers. What will happen to the stock market? The stock market will plummet.

In the long run, Bitcoin is not related to stock prices, but the correlation may be high in the short term. This is the 30 -day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index. The correlation is high, and it is still rising. If stocks fall from 10 -year yields, this is not good for short -term prices.

My other belief is that Bitcoin is the only global free market that exists. It is extremely sensitive to the global statutory liquidity; therefore, if the legal liquidity tightening is coming, its price will fall at the stock price and become a leading indicator of financial pressure. If this is a leading indicator, Bitcoin will bottom out before the stock, thereby predicting that the legal currency printing leader will be reopened.

If financial pressure occurs due to the collapse of the bond market, the authorities' answer will be to print money. First, the Fed will stand with the Trump team and fulfill their patriotic obligations… Press the dat USD Brrr button. Then, reinflation can be achieved with the Fed without suffering from currency weakness. Keep in mind that everything is relative. If the Fed creates more dollars, the People's Bank of China can create more RMB, and the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate will remain unchanged. The biggest shareholding of Japanese companies is US dollar financial assets. Therefore, if the above -mentioned asset prices fall, the Bank of Japan will suspend interest rate hike plans to relieve the financial status of the yen.

In short, a small financial crisis in the United States will provide the currency mana desired by cryptocurrencies. This is also a superiority for Trump. Overall, this makes my confidence interval of the above -mentioned scenes in the first or early second quarters reached 60%.

The transaction probability and expected value

As mentioned in the preface, the increase in the risk of avalanche makes us unable to continue skiing. The key is not to make trouble, don't discover it. Extending this metaphor to cryptocurrencies, Maelstrom will hedge yourself through insufficient investment in the market. This is about expected value, not whether I am correct.

How do I know I was wrong? You never know, but in my opinion, if Bitcoin has a strong transaction volume, the transaction volume exceeds $ 110,000 ($ Trump Memecoin's level of fanaticism), and the amount of positions will continue to expand, then I will admit it to a higher ones to higher Risk buy back. More precisely, $ Trump Memecoin rose to a complete diluted value of nearly 100 billion US dollars in 24 hours, which is really crazy. I bought it for a few hours and sold it midway on the weekend hot spring vacation. My travel costs are paid multiple times, just click on a smartphone a few times. Trading should not be so easy, but this is indeed the same in the mania. In my opinion, $ Trump is a top signal, just like FTX purchased the United States in the bull market in 2021Professional baseball referee logo is the same.

Transactions are not about right or wrong, but about the probability of transaction perception and maximum expected value. Let me explain my thinking process. Obviously, these are the probability of perception that can never be objectively understood, but investment games involve making decisions under incomplete information.

Why do I believe that Bitcoin has 30%correction? I have traded in this market for more than ten years and have experienced three bull market cycles. Considering the volatility of Bitcoin, this type of callback often occurs in the entire bull market. More importantly, after Trump won re -election in early November 2024, the market exceeded the historical highest point in March 2024. Many of me, including me, have written a lot of articles, talking about how Trumpianism indicates the acceleration of US banknote printing and how others will use the money printing plan to boost the economy. I think we will fall to the highest historical point before and talk back to Trump's entire increase.

The probability of 30% recovery of Bitcoin is 60%

The possibility of continuous bull market and a Bitcoin repurchase of 10% is 40%

(60% 60% * --30%) + (40% * 10%) = -14% expected value

Mathematics tells me that the method of reducing the risk is correct. I reduce my risk by selling Bitcoin for a long time and holding more funds as collateral for USDe, which currently has an annual yield of about 10% to 20%. If Bitcoin plummets, the field of cottage will face the end of the world, and this is where I really want to play. As mentioned at the beginning, due to various early investment and consulting allocation, Maelstrom has many flowing cottage coins. We sell most of them. If Bitcoin falls 30%, the best quality things will sell more than 50%. Bitcoin's last super liquidation candle will tell me when to reverse to buy an encrypted cottage.

Repeat me again; if I was wrong, my disadvantage was that we made a profit in advance and sold some of the Bitcoin that we used to invest in the profit of the previous congzi. But if I am right, then we have cash to quickly double or turn the funds on the high -quality cottage coins that we generally sell in the encryption market.

The last thing to say is that when this article was sent to my editor on Monday, January 27, 2025, the market was in a state of panic because of the launch of DeepSeek, Investors reassess their bullish reasons for NVIDIA and U.S. tech exceptionalism. Nasdaq futures are falling, and cryptocurrencies are falling. DeepSeek is a AI model developed by the team. According to reports, its training costs have been reduced by 95%, but they are better than OpenAI and Anthropic's latest and best models. The problem of the bubble is that when investors openWhen they suspected that they were a core principle of bullling, they would begin to question all principles. And what I worry about is that they don't think interest rates are important. Western investors' panic about Deepseek may be a catalyst that they panic in the current bad statutory liquidity status and 10 -year Treasury yields. Isn't it interesting to embrace the open source movement while capitalist America sticks to the walled garden? Competition is a wonderful thing.