Author: Little Plum; Source: Blockchain Blue Ocean

The yin fell, and it began to accelerate in the early morning of Monday. This morning, it appeared to kill the number of days. Almost all of the cottage multi -headed leverage of more than 5 times was liquidated.

I did not escape this wave of decline, although I reduced some positions a few days ago, However, it is also the spot in the spot. It can only be said that it is better than various leveraged positions and live.

Everyone cares about it. Is it over the bull market now?

Now the market panic is filled, and it makes sense to sing and sing. It is optimistic that the leverage has been exploded and the car has been lighter, and it can rise happily later. In addition to the BTC, the other cottage includes Ethereum is already a bear market, and a large number of cottage has continued to reach a new low.

The fuse of today's plunge

First of all, analyze this in a pretty understandable way. The reason for the plunge: The main reason for this wave of plunge is not outside the currency circle itself.

1. Tariff problem, it is difficult to explain this problem short-length, and I cannot guarantee myself. Understand the joints. But it was roughly the market had expected that Trump would wield the "tariff stick" to take office, mainly using this attitude to force others to back down on some issues, that is, tariffs are just weapons to scare people.

As a result, I found that Trump is ready to play on the weekend, and even use ieepa (president can be president, you can The special power used in the emergency economic state is not restricted by Congress to start economic sanctions or amended tariffs), which has a great impact on the market. In addition, the weekend time, U.S. stocks could not price the matter. The currency circle did not have a reference of US stocks and killed panic alone.

2. Deepseek's impact on US stock AI is also very large, especially the leader of the leader. Why can Nvidia surpass Apple? It is because the market is optimistic about the large narrative of AI, and AI needs to invest a lot of computing power. Nvidia's chip supply is in short supply. And the ultra -low cost of DeepSeek (I don't know the authenticity) let investors start to doubt whether it is necessary to need so much computing power (chip). Is it necessary for other technology companies to invest in the development of days in the AI ​​field?

and US stocks have long been sore, most of the company's stock prices (similar to cottage coins (similar to cottage coins coins ), The number of corporate bankruptcy has reached a new high after 2008. The stock index is supported by the stock price of technology giants. Can several giants fall into US stocks? As long as Deepseek's affairs are not falsified, there is a sword hanging for American stocks.

3. Rest atmosphere, the Federal Reserve announced a few days ago, and many people began to be pessimistic. It is believed that the fall of 25 years will not even fall, which will have a certain impact on market expectations. I think this matter is influenced but not great. The previous December article has judged that the probability will not be reduced in interest, and it will wait and see. Moreover, the new FOMC ticket committee is relatively deceived, and it is also possible for the king to put pressure on Powell to reduce interest rates. Japan has previously announced that it has also had an impact on interest rates, but it was secondary for this decline.

In general, this decline is caused by multiple factors, especially The impact of emergencies such as tariffs and Deepseek fell.

Looking at the specific market performance, the BTC wave rising is a new high, from January The new high on the 20th is only 16 points to call back today. In fact, there are only 11 points from Sunday to Monday. This adjustment range is a very normal "bull market small flash collapse".

The bull market in the cottage may end the

The key lies in the killing under the cottage including Ethereum. Now, Ethereum has fallen from near the recent high 3400 to 2100 or 2 days fell by 38%, and SOL has recovered 40%from the recent historical high to now. This is still a relatively large currency. Many of the cottages of BN have continued to reach a new low. They have even fallen below the low point before the start of the second half of last year.

I myself followed the BTC almost five or six points last night, 2 times the cottage at BTC's of BTC's. The decline was hung in a single cottage in advance, but I bought a 20%decline when I bought it.

If I still think that BTC has stabilized 100,000, the cottage will be stabilized. It will keep up and start the cottage season (some projects in some tracks have risen, and other projects generally rose slightly, not as comprehensive rising as the 21 years). So now looking at the market again, I think the bull market in the cottage has ended, or it has ended as early as 24 years, but we were confused by BTC's rise last year.

The main reason I think is that we usually think that Wall Street institutions enter The field will be pulled to the sky, and then the overflowing funds and the new retail fund will buy cheaper cottages, forming the order of up the previous bull market. But in fact, because the number of bull market cottage projects has increased significantly, most of them are high -FDV low -circulating "VC coins". The market liquidity has been dry. These projects have a poor enrichment effect in the secondary market.

For cottage, platforms like BN have become the withdrawal of the project party and VCs withdraw from the exit Channel, the project party is sold online, the agency is sold, and the user will sell when the user gets airdrops. The retail investors in the secondary market have been connected, but found that they are bottomless and become a single buyer for feast. When the market began to punish those diamonds with currency holdings, when retail investors began to do not pick up these currency, and after starting to turn to a relatively fair MEME, the market began to overall self -FUD.

The current market cognition is that there must be no faith in the cottage, or sell Sell ​​in the air and sell it to BTC. This has caused almost all currency's exchange rate pairs to BTCs are constantly lower. Even if some currencies are short -term, it will look at it in the long run.It is constantly lowering.

It is only possible to reverse this market that is only one possibility of the continued Fud of the cottage, that is, the cottage The large -scale, large -scale, and persistent general rise, reappearing the wealth -making effect of the cottage, instead of pulling up the blood of the audience directly to the audience like Trump. I think the current market environment cannot be achieved, unless the Fed is solemn in water as 20 years, it may be possible to overflow more water.

But the current macro environment, it is difficult to appear this large-scale water, especially now The global economy is really worse than expected, otherwise there will be no conflict and civil strife.

It is not necessarily right, but this is my personal understanding of the current cottage dilemma And why I think it is difficult to reverse the dilemma of cottage for a long time.

Future operation suggestions and short-term judgments

My view of the next operation of the cottage is: the current stage No longer do long -term layout, only participation in bands, no longer holding long -term holding; participating in projects with high market attention and abandoning unpopular projects; cottage spot also to stop leaving the field and abandon the fantasy of being returned by the position of the warehouse.

As for BTC, I think if the United States does not have a serious economic crisis or financial crisis, It may be a situation of a long cow and a cow. Phase adjustment may occur in the middle, which will be larger than US stocks, but it will not fall 70-80%as before.

It is said that my own waves also bought for my own mistakes, the market Always right. In the future, we must adhere to the profit of the cottage in time, partially allocated into BTC, partially configured as cash, and not anxious to sell and air in the short -term cottage.

Finally, talk about the short-term, subjectively think of today's declineThe degree is almost the same. According to historical experience, after such a sharp plunge, it is usually the short-term bottom. The next step should be a disorderly shock and then choose. After the shock, the bottom of the two explores and even the bottom of the three explores to confirm the bottom. There is no anxiety at the bottom of the morning without the bottom of the bottom.

For example, whether it has built the bottom this time, because the thunder that caused this decline has not finished it. , it depends on the trend of US stocks in the next few days. If both tariffs and risks of US stocks are lifted, it may fluctuate upwards after fluctuations. If the problem is intensifying, it may continue to plummet like 313 after the 312 plunge, which is not impossible.

Don't guess the bottom, especially the decline in the emotional vent of the incident, and understand the king. What kind of moths who do not follow the common sense of common sense, this is not the indicator technology or market analysis can be predicted. Following the market, don't be attached to our own predictions, we come to make money, not to prove ourselves.

The chaotic period after the plunge, the black swan may come, all we can do is to do what we can do, and we can only do what we can do. Good risk control, reducing positions to leave a bit of bullets, and stay away from high leverage, even if you must go to leverage, you must bring good stop loss.

There is still a chance to live in the market /p>