Source: X, RUI@Yeruizhang

In the cycle of the first half of 2022 to 2024, a strong VC endorsement+large air investment to "community"+the model of the first coin in doing things has become the mainstream trend of the market The ultra -high premium of the terminal exchange in TGE makes their preferences determine that this is the most reasonable path. The PVP model of the bear market cycle allows the entire market for the release of large projects. From the APT-SUI-OP-AP-RB, it is a horror monster that comes out of this path. For these projects, they have obtained a short -term volume to the community through the coins. This is a path dependence, so the way to make ecology is to sprinkle money and sprinkle money to those projects that want to bring traffic (because they lack direct direct direct directors (because they lack direct direct direct directors The ability to communicate with community/traffic). Therefore, you can see that the applications of some star VC investment in the past two years can obtain sufficient volume in these ecology.

The game that was originally deceived will slowly fail. The altars will complete the shuffle once from the 18-20 years cycle. However, with the passing of the spot ETF and the return of the market's money -making effect, these projects are constantly asking for their own comfort zones, and the market will always pay. The two most interesting examples are SEI and Pyth. The Runway before these two projects should not exceed 6 months. After the launch Initial FDV. The former was shipped crazy OTC after launch, and the latter reached a new high after landing from OK. In essence, the market continues to strengthen logic under the original valuation model, and as a result, they have pushed them to a high level they should not have.

So the bear market in April came. In fact, there is a sign of the market before the bear market. Starknet has become the last "Tianwang -level project" that can maintain a market value. Sacrifice of the model collapse. Not only did the opening performance very poor, the airdrops were also anti -anti. In essence, the project party has seen the decline of this gameplay, and dare not give so many airdrops (the buying of the terminal exchange is limited). So negative feedback continued to strengthen, and the vicious cycle began.

Where is the question? The reason for the two shallow levels is that with the emergence of Meme, retail investors' attention cannot be concentrated on the VC coin; and the number of short hunters and expectations are increasingly caused by airdrops. Opening the market, the favorable feedback from the project party has become a game that everyone threw faster than anyone. However, the reason for the deep level is that the terminal exchange finds that it is not possible to obtain sufficient new users through the projects that cannot endorse the strong VC endorsement+large amount of airdrop activities. They are not enough to provide sufficient transaction volume.

The results of the second level of the VC project in May-September can perform well. However, with Trump's victory, things have changed.

There are two types of projects back to the vision here. One is the project party who still uses traditional logic. We see, APT and STX are still on this pathSince November, they have been desperately pushing good news, moving closer to the mainstream, and spending a lot of money to incentivize the ecosystem (APT’s TVL revenue leads the market, and STX gives new BTC a lot of incentives), which is essentially traditional news-market buying The market-valuation benchmark-currency price rise cycle, but unfortunately the market does not buy it. In fact, it’s not that they didn’t do a good job. The same idea was very effective at the beginning of the year, but now the version is wrong.

The other type is project parties that combine work with market making. Sui and ENA are the representatives. From 1U to 5U, everyone doesn’t know what Sui has done, but the increase reminds everyone that there are still Sui has done so many things. Ena is a bright brand that attracts goods at the bottom of 0.2, and then issues second quarter rewards. The bull market has come, and both the funding rate and currency price have increased, which has led to the establishment of Pendle YT-PT's points pricing model. The expectations for the third quarter have increased - TVL has increased. -The cycle of rising currency prices begins. This may be the current version of the mainstream.

Back to the perspective of new projects, when currency issuance channels become more diversified and exchanges are no longer the absolute terminal, users’ mental models become the new terminal. How to invade users’ minds? Model construction buying has become something that project parties need to think about. There is no standard answer to this question yet. The most direct solution is of course to build a community, but this is very difficult. Only a few projects such as Monad, Bera, and Megaeth have achieved it. More advanced ones are realized through third-party tools such as Kaito and Echo or direct KOL rounds. Kaito is the embodiment of the attention economy, while Echo gives retail investors a hope of early participation. The KOL round uses the simplest and most direct content. Feed it to retail investors. We have seen Megaeth build an extremely strong community through the Megamafia+Echo round, and we have also seen Fogo, as a core circle project (the founder of Crocswap), transfer more shares to the Echo round, and a large number of Pre TGE projects have chosen to airdrop to Yap. Before there is a standard answer, everyone is trying.

From 21 to 23, technology is the primary productive force, strong VC endorsement-good technology-legitimacy is the answer (this is also the path dependence of the 21-year bull market cycle). But now with the change of wind direction, the relationship between technology and attention is deconstructed, and the proportion of technology in users' mental models is getting smaller and smaller (of course, from the VC perspective, this is another issue, and this can be written in another article) , the product is greater than the technology, the community is greater than the technology, the early stakes are greater than the technology, and the technology-led narrative has become a gorgeous dream.

But is technology really useless? In fact, technology has always been the most important thing in the blockchain. Technology determines decentralization, and decentralization determines the existence foundation of the blockchain industry. In the changes in the mental model from the last cycle to this cycle, the market has abandoned micro-innovation and small technology upgrades, and abandoned VC coins that only talk about technology and do not care about the market, but they are still looking forward to Fundamental-level innovation brought by technology.new. Always have hope for Crypto.