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Macro outlook for next week: The Federal Reserve has entered a regular quiet period, and CPI data may revive the suspense of interest rate cuts.
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2024-12-07 22:02 2,269
According to news on December 7, this week’s closely watched U.S. non-farm payrolls data for November was better than expected, but it was not hot enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates again later this month. The market has pushed the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December to around 90%. At the same time, more and more Federal Reserve officials are leaning toward cautious interest rate cuts. U.S. inflation data in the coming week is the only important data that could shake up expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. Fed officials appear on track to cut interest rates this month after data showed the U.S. labor market remains strong but also shows signs of slowing, but there is debate over a possible rate cut next year. It's already on the table. Policymakers who spoke before the Fed's quiet period generally said they expected rates to continue falling while being cautious about the pace of cuts. Here are the key points that markets will be watching for in the new week: Monday 9:30, China’s November CPI annual rate; At 23:00 on Monday, the monthly wholesale sales rate in the United States in October; At 0:00 on Tuesday, the US New York Fed’s 1-year inflation forecast for November; Wednesday 21:30, US November CPI and core CPI; At 21:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week to December 7; the annual rate and monthly rate of PPI in the United States in November; At 1:00 on Friday, the Federal Reserve announced account flows for the third quarter of 2024; At 21:30 on Friday, the monthly rate of the U.S. import price index in November was released.
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