Author: Michael Nadeau, The DeFi Report; Translation: Golden Finance xiaozou

With Bitcoin rising 45% last month, I see a lot People are talking about whether this is a "partial top" or whether it will be a "full sprint" all the way to the end of the year. These are mostly the instinctive cries of “key opinion leaders” and other market prognosticators and analysts on social media. Of course, no one has a crystal ball to predict the future. But to build strong beliefs, we like to combine our intuition, experience, and analysis with hard data. This helps us assign probabilities to possible outcomes as accurately as possible.

This is the characteristic of The DeFi Report. Our research usually includes:

Macroeconomics Analysis

On-chain data analysis

Market sentiment analysis

Basic analysis of blockchain and protocols

Cryptocurrency native/characteristic analysis (e.g., geography, regulation, community and other unique aspects of cryptocurrencies as global assets)

In this report In this article, we will focus on the data on the Bitcoin chain and attach additional SPX6900 related content at the end of the article.

Our goal is to determine where we are in this cycle. To do this, we analyzed Bitcoin’s current key indicators and compared them to past cycles.

1. Long-term holders and short-term holders

(1) Long-term holders

Let’s first look at Bitcoin’s “Smart Money”.

What is Smart Money doing now? For sale.

Long-term holders profited in the first quarter of the year, re-accumulated wealth over the summer, and began to gain again after the U.S. election.profit. This is not surprising. After all, Bitcoin gained 45% last month. It is up 600% from the cycle low.

Currently, 69% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin is in the hands of long-term holders. As the bull market continues, we expect to see long-term holders transfer their tokens to short-term holders. Therefore, the proportion of 69% should continue to decline.

Data summary:

In the 2021 cycle, when 58% of circulating supply Bitcoin prices peak when the amount is held by long-term holders.

In the 2017 cycle, Bitcoin prices peaked when 51% of the circulating supply was held by long-term holders.

Conclusion: Smart money begins to make profits. We believe this will continue as new money enters the market. For prices to rise, demand (new money) must exceed supply. We think so.

(2) Short-term holders

Move to Bitcoin’s “New Money.”

Short-term holders are new entrants to the market. In a bull market, we typically see an upward trend in this group, while the number of long-term holders decreases. That's exactly what we're seeing today.

Short-term investors once again chased the market in the first quarter. Many short-term players exited in this summer's reshuffle. Now we see a new momentum.

Data summary:

Currently, 16.6% of the Bitcoin supply is held in short-term holdings in hands.

In the 2021 cycle, BTC peaked with short-term holders holding 25% of the circulating supply.

BTC reached its price peak in 2017 when short-term holders controlled 70% of the supply.

Conclusion: New funds are flowing into Bitcoin. Judging from past cycles, there may be more new funds flowing in in the future.

2. Exchanges

(1) Exchange balance

Currently, balances on exchanges are declining. This is somewhat of an anomaly because as prices rise, what we should be seeing is tokens entering exchanges. Instead, we are seeing Bitcoin Coin leaves exchange, presumably in self-custody form

It is worth noting that this is not the first time we have seen this happen in early 2021. At the beginning of the price increase, the yellow and black lines diverge in a similar pattern. Later in the cycle, funds eventually return to the exchange. style="text-align: left;">In addition to Bitcoin balances on exchanges being at their lowest levels since 2019, I’m also hearing that OTC desks are starved of Bitcoin. Here’s what Marcus Theilen, founder of 10x Research, has to say. Comments on one of my recent LinkedIn posts:

Conclusion: Bullish

Conclusion: Bullish

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(2) Financing rate

The financing rate of the futures market can help us Understand trader sentiment and momentum. The green line means bulls are paying shorts to maintain their positions.

Data summary:

Currently, the financing rate of Bitcoin is 0.012%. When the price of Bitcoin reached US$100,000, the financing rate was as high as 0.025%.

This year In March, the financing rate was as high as 0.07%. In the 2021 cycle, the financing rate reached a peak of 0.17%. ="text-align: left;">Conclusion: Historically speaking, today’s funding rate levels are quite low—— considering Bitcoin is trading close to $100,000. A high financing rate indicates excessive leverage and a "house of cards" market structure. That's not what we see today. So, bullish.

3. Market value to realized value ratio (MVRV)

MVRV Z-Score Help We understand the relationship between Bitcoin's current market value and "realized value," which is the network's cost base tool. It basically gives us an idea of ​​the average unrealized gain for Bitcoin holders. All the while, it does an excellent job of identifying cycle peaks.

Data summary:

The current MVRV is 3.17. This means the average holder has an unrealized gain of 217%.

At the peak of the cycle in 2021, the MVRV is 7.5 (yield of 650%).

The MVRV of Bitcoin at its peak in 2017 was 11 (a return rate of 1000%).

Let's go a little deeper and focus on the long-term holder group:

The current long-term The holding MVRV is 3.89.

The MVRV in March was 3.76.

The long-term holding MVRV was as high as 12 when the BTC price reached its peak in the last cycle.

The index peaked at 35 in 2017.

The MVRV for short-term holders is currently 1.26, which suggests that the average return for short-term holders is 26%.

Data summary:

MVRV in March was 1.45.

reached a peak of 1.8 in the 2021 cycle.

MVR in the 2017 cycleV is 2.4.

Conclusion: Both long-term and short-term holdings of MVRV are likely to go higher before the end of this cycle.

4. Pi-Cycle Top Indicator

Similar to MVRV score , Pi-Cycle Top Indicator (Pi cycle top indicator) has always been a useful tool for identifying cycle peaks. It measures momentum by 2x the 111-day moving average (green) and the 350-day moving average.

When the market is overheating, the shorter 111-day moving average will cross over the longer 350-day moving average.

Conclusion: The shorter moving averages have not yet shown a parabolic trend, which indicates that sharp rises and falls can occur at any time.

5. Market Sentiment

Since November 1st, we have entered the "extreme Greed” period and has stayed there ever since. Of course, you have to be afraid when others are greedy.

But there are some nuances to explore here. For example, in early November 2020, we entered a period of "extreme greed" for the first time. We stayed there until the cycle peaked in April (a cycle that lasted 5 months (with a few brief pullbacks in between) got us into "greed").

Other off-chain indicators also indicate that the "extreme greed" period of this cycle has begun. Views for popular crypto YouTube channels, for example, are still about half of what they were at the peak of the previous cycle. Coinbase App ranks 15th (ranked first last cycle).

Finally, I see more people thinking of a "local top" than a true "super cycle." This is not what we usually see at the top. At a true top, it's more likely that few will call because extreme exuberance will come - and many market participants believe the "new normal" is here to stay.

Conclusion: Although there are some signs of prosperity (such as pump.fun, Microstrategy, memecoins, AI agents, NFT returns, etc.), but more extreme greed is likely to come. It is human nature to expect volatility.

6. Attached is SPX6900 data

Let's take a look at SPX6900 - a meme coin we mentioned in the previous report article (and held a small amount of it). I feel strongly that the moves we’ve seen in meme coins this cycle are a prelude to what may happen in the future.

Why?

Obviously, retail investors prefer meme coins. People like to gamble. Trading meme coins seems to have some "gambling" implications. Anyway, this is my opinion on meme coins. A gambling game. This is the utility of meme coins. It brings a sense of community and an endless rush of dopamine.

There is no doubt that meme coins are attracting new users. I think they are good for the crypto world, but at the same time I admit they are not for everyone. Many meme coins are scams. Many people will lose a lot of money playing this game.

Now, frankly, as someone who has spent thousands of hours studying the crypto market, my gut feeling about the industry is basically a "gut feeling" ". But I wanted to share a sample of my SPX traces so you can get an idea of ​​some analytical research.

When it comes to meme coins, I mainly look at the following:

A lot of publicity and social media opinions (mindshare/attention)

Continuously growing token holder base

Projects that have already made big moves, such as sales or mergers, etc.

Market value of more than US$100 million

Sufficient trading liquidity

Exchange listing (or possible listing in the future)

A large number of whale players (showing high confidence)

Clear slogan

A community that makes extremely high price predictions

Trade on Solana (easily achieved through Coinbase, Phantom)< /p>

Global market/available

Addressing interests

SPX6900 seems to meet the above criteria. Here are some highlights:

Note: Its social media accounts have grown from 9,000 followers to more than 50,000 in the past few months. Its largest promotional account (Murad) grew from 110,000 followers to 550,000 followers over the same period - spawning several smaller promotional accounts in the process.

Token holder growth: Its number of token holders has grown from about 3,000 a few months ago to 79,000 today. The fastest growing on Solana (also available on Base and Ethereum).

Resilience: Before going parabolic a few months ago, it had multiple corrections of over 70%. It is down approximately 50% from its peak price of $0.94 per token. The past seven weeks have ranged between $0.49 and $0.72.

Whale: The number of SPX holders with more than $10,000 on Solana alone exceeds 44,000. That’s almost half that of WIF and more than half that of Bonk (both have 5 times the market cap). It holds nearly a third of Pepe’s number of token holders with over $100,000 and $1 million. Pepe's market capitalization is 13.4 times that of SPX.

Global Markets: There are simple ideas that anyone can understand. Currently traded on KuCoin (Asia) and Bybit (UAE), Solana, Ethereum and Base DEX.

Slogans: "Turn the stock market around" and "Stop trading and believe in something."

Absurd price prediction: Murad aims for $100 billion. Note that Doge reached $90 billion last cycle, which makes people dare to dream.

This is my opinion. Please note that I have no affiliation with SPX6900 or anyone associated with this project. Investing in cryptocurrencies is very risky. Meme coins are on the far end of the risk curve. We The way the data is queried and analyzed may be flawed, and the analysis may be wrong, and the SPX6900 may quickly drop to zero.

Please note that my data source is a private dune dashboard plus Holderscan. I am working on more data and hope to share it with you soon.

7. Conclusion

Partial top or full sprint to the end of the year?

This is the question we asked at the beginning. Everyone wants to know where we will be at the end of the year. I am not a trader or someone who pays too much attention to short-term price movements, but I believe in Bitcoin A move higher from now on is possible - possibly into the $120,000 range before Christmas

I'm not 100% convinced on this. I'm always looking at volatility. But I do think Bitcoin prices will go higher in 2025.

Of course, we are also keeping an eye on the broader economic picture. Global liquidity is showing some bearish signals right now. The US dollar index has retreated from the local high of 108, but it is still high. CPI data will be released on December 12, There will be a Fed meeting on December 18th.

As always, do your own research and don't invest in anything you can't lose.