Highlights

① Bitcoin spot ETF’s 2024 report card: total asset management scale reaches 115 billion The U.S. dollar currently holds 5.7% of Bitcoin supply. But it still accounts for only about 1% of the total AUM of all ETFs globally, suggesting that cryptoassets still have significant growth potential going forward.

② BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF dominates, and Grayscale’s once important position has declined as investors turn to low-cost options. Overall, Bitcoin spot ETFs drive institutional adoption, redefine market structure and solidify Bitcoin as a mainstream asset.

③ Trump promised to build the United States into the "crypto capital" and appointed Sachs as the cryptocurrency czar. With the advancement of the FIT 21 bill, the proposal of the Bitcoin reserve plan, and the shift in regulatory attitudes, the encryption industry will usher in a warm spring in 2025.

2024 is an exciting year in crypto history. Bitcoin prices hit all-time highs, blockchain infrastructure improved significantly, stablecoins found product-market fit, and Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs were approved. At the same time, the U.S. legislative and regulatory environment is charting a positive path forward for the industry. All of these pave the way for a continued outbreak in 2025.

For the U.S. stock market, the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF is obviously of great significance. They have expanded access to Bitcoin for retail and institutional investors, attracted tens of billions of dollars in net capital inflows, and elevated the asset class from niche to mainstream status. This may be the most successful ETF in financial history, with assets under management (AUM) exceeding $110 billion in just one year.

In this article, the RockFlow investment research team will take you to review the remarkable success of Bitcoin spot ETFs on the first anniversary of their establishment, and review their top issuances Institutions and their profound impact on Bitcoin and financial markets, and most importantly, why we believe that in the Trump 2.0 era, the crypto market will usher in a new situation.

1. One year after the launch of Bitcoin spot ETF, the encryption market has changed drastically

After ten years of expectations, repeated applications, and false news that can't be caught off guard in the encryption market, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally approved the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF on January 10, 2024, 2024 .

Soon after that, 11 ETFs entered the market one after another to attract capital inflows. ——The traditional financial giants such as Belle and Fidelity, and encrypted native institutions such as Bitwise. "> Bitcoin spot ETF has attracted a lot of capital pursuit once it came out. The acceleration of capital inflows coincides with the high market mood, which brings fresh blood to various areas of encrypted ecology. However, Trump's victory in the November US presidential election has once again boosted optimism, so ETF inflow has been strengthened again. The net inflow of spot ETF is about 32 billion U.S. dollars, holding a total of more than 1.1 million Bitcoin, equivalent to the total assets of $ 115 billion. >

But on the other hand, Bitcoin spot ETF only accounts for about 1%of all global total ETF asset management scale, which shows that crypto assets still have huge growth potential in the future.

Who is behind such abundant funds? The 13F documents disclosed the buyers behind the Bitcoin spot ETF, including both retail investors and professional investors, including hedge funds and financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Millennium Management. Increasingly, Bitcoin spot ETF perfectly acts as a bridge between traditional finance and the world of encryption. Accelerate, with the relaxation of regulatory conditions, we will also see more extensive participation in pension funds, family offices and donation funds. Optimistic, the AUM of Bitcoin spot ETF may be doubled. style = "Text-Align: Left;">2. ETF issuers and how it affects Bitcoin itself

In the past, Grayscale’s GBTC was the main indirect investor in Bitcoin. Tools, but after the mass launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, GBTC gradually faced challenges due to high management fees. Most new investors (and even original investors) turned to the newly launched Bitcoin spot ETFs because their fees were generally at. Around 0.2% (many even initially 0 rate), which is much lower than the 1.5% of Grayscale GBTC.

In addition, GBTC is also seeking changes and has taken the initiative to spin off another one with a lower rate. The Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) as a low-cost alternative to GBTC

BlackRock and Fidelity from the issuing institution's perspective. It is obviously the biggest winner. Take BlackRock as an example, its Bitcoin spot ETF-IBIT. Currently, it holds about 540,000 Bitcoins, accounting for half of the total number of Bitcoins held by all ETFs. At the same time, Grayscale’s GBTC’s Bitcoin holdings have dropped sharply from 600,000 to 200,000, becoming The biggest loser.

On the other hand, BlackRock’s IBIT asset management scale is close to US$60 billion, far exceeding BlackRock’s largest gold ETF—— Size of IAU (350 billion), further solidifying Bitcoin’s status as “digital gold.” According to statistics from Bloomberg ETF analysts, IBIT reached the milestone of $50 billion in management scale in just 227 trading days, breaking the previous iShares core MSCI emerging market. Market ETF (IEMG) set a record of 1323 days

Investors chose real money to support Bitcoin spot due to their interest in Bitcoin. ETF, at the same time, the Bitcoin spot ETF is also affecting the price and market structure of Bitcoin itself. According to Coin Metrics statistical analysis, the Bitcoin spot ETF, as a stable source of demand for Bitcoin, has a net inflow of funds that has an impact on the price of Bitcoin. A very significant effect.

The chart below shows that large inflows or outflows of Bitcoin spot ETF funds almost always occur at the same time as major Bitcoin price movements.

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EspeciallyDuring periods of strong market momentum or large capital inflows, the correlation between the two tends to increase, indicating that as issuers buy Bitcoin to meet ETF investor demand, it has become a structural driver of Bitcoin price increases. factor. As the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, ETF products have become more attractive to retail and institutional investors, thus forming a mutually reinforcing feedback loop that attracts more capital inflows.

Of course, it should be noted that the trends of the two are not entirely consistent, because in addition to spot ETFs, the broader macro environment, investor sentiment, and MicroStrategy The market influence of such institutions also played an important role.

3. In the era of Trump 2.0, the encryption market will usher in a new situation

RockFlow The investment research team believes that the encryption market will further rise in 2025, mainly because the encryption-friendly president-Trump officially enters the White House. In the previous year, he had repeatedly expressed his support for the crypto-economy when he was running for election. His promises at the time included but were not limited to:

Repeated dismissals" Current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who embarrasses the encryption industry, reduced the sentence of the founder of Silk Road,

End the United States’ suppression and “crusade” against cryptocurrency,

Prevent the United States from further developing CBDC,

Make the United States the "crypto capital" of the world,

< p style="text-align: left;">Prevent the United States from selling its Bitcoin holdings,

Establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve,

< p style="text-align: left;">It is recommended to use cryptocurrency to solve the US debt problem,

Appoint a crypto advisory committee and advance rules “written by people who love the industry,” etc.

Trump, who has just taken office now, is indeed steadily advancing his commitment to the encryption industry at that time. So in 2025, Trump and a Republican-controlled CongressIt may bring major changes to the encryption field -for industry participants, this is a gratifying change.

In addition, in this round of the US election, the encryption industry began to "show the mountains and dew" and became one of the important gold owners of the election: according to relevant reports, The Super Action Committee (PAC) Fairshake, which supports cryptocurrency, raised more than $ 200 million from the crypto industry to help candidates who help cryptocurrencies win. It is mainly aimed at Republican and key Democratic candidates, which is expected to continue to bring urgently need to be in the encryption industry.

It is worth mentioning that as early as December 2024, Trump appointed PayPal executive Sax as the White House "AI and cryptocurrency." Sax is deemed to be supporters in the innovation and encryption industry. Some encrypted practitioners believe that the "encrypted tsar" is expected to bring more benefits in supporting digital assets.

In addition, during the last Congress, the US House of Representatives passed the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technical Act (FIT 21) to establish a digital asset supervision framework. And assign jurisdiction between the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Although FIT 21 does not meet all the requirements of the encryption industry, it represents the greatest efforts of the US Congress so far.

Also, people's interest in the establishment of Bitcoin strategic reserves reappear again. Cynthia Lummis, a Republican Senator in Waioming, recently launched the Bitcoin Act, which hopes to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States and formulate a structured Bitcoin purchase plan.

In addition to the above, the RockFlow investment research team predicts that the Federal Bank and other financial regulatory agencies will re-examine the encryption of the Biden Times. Since 2021, regulators have put pressure on banks by issuing a number of related interpretations, asking them to "cancel" controversial encryption business, which has basically prevented banks from engaging in custody and other activities. Given that Trump has promised to protect the encrypted industry from "persecution" from regulatory, these explanations have a major change in supervision.

Finally, the increase in capital market activities in the encryption industry is also an important benefit. With the improvement of regulatory transparency, coupled with factors such as the continuous attention of investors, the increase in institutional adoption rates, and increased wind investment funds, related capital market activities (including IPO) are expected to increase significantly. With the continuous maturity of the encrypted economy, regulatory development and market enthusiasmConvergence will create more opportunities for public listings, M&A transactions and deeper institutional involvement.

Conclusion

RockFlow investment research team believes that the financial industry represented by Bitcoin spot ETF Products are reshaping the crypto investment landscape, not only effectively attracting capital inflows from institutions and retail investors, but also driving structural demand for Bitcoin. Over the past year, they have proven their potential to legitimize and expand use cases for crypto assets.

At the same time, although the Ethereum ETF started slowly, its good development momentum is gradually showing, and investor demand for it is growing. As the market matures further, new opportunities may further increase the attractiveness of crypto markets to traditional financial investors. The next wave of ETF inflows could unleash even greater growth.

In 2025, as crypto-friendly expectations heat up, the regulatory environment becomes clearer, institutional investors continue to enter the market, strategic reserve plans and other favorable factors intertwine, the crypto market will welcome A new growth cycle is coming.