Messari Report: What should be the appropriate valuation of HYPE

Author: MONK, Messari researcher; Translation: Golden Finance xiaozou

The following are the key points from my latest Messari report article.

My latest valuation of the HYPE token (which has a maximum supply of 1 billion) is that its FDV is around $13 billion, under appropriate market conditions It could be higher than US$30 billion.

Let's take a closer look:

The end of incentives has not stopped Hyperliquid's growth momentum. We saw market share reach an all-time high in October and open interest hit an all-time high of over $1.5 billion.

Hyperliquid will also launch HyperEVM through TGE (Token Generation Event), with more than 35 A team plans to participate in this new ecosystem. This brings Hyperliquid closer to a universal L1 and further away from the application chain.

This is the market map I made:

The new Hyperliquid should have a new valuation framework. Typically, the killer application and its L1 network are separate entities. Application fees vest in application tokens, and L1 fees vest in network validators. Hyperliquid solidifies these revenue streams.

Hyperliquid therefore owns both the crypto world’s leading perp DEX and its underlying L1. We chose the sum-of-the-parts valuation method to better reflect the vertical integration of the agreement. Let’s start with perp DEX.

I will detail one key driver below.

Our overall view on the derivatives space is highly consistent with that of Multicoin Capital and ASXN, except for one thing, and that is Hyperliquid's market share.

I believe that the perp DEX market is a winner-takes-all market. This is because:

* any perp DEX can list any perpetual contract without blockchain fragmentation issues

* Unlike centralized exchanges, no permission is required to use DEX.

* There is a network effect flywheel in terms of order flow and liquidity

I think Hyperliquid's dominance will only get stronger. In the base case, we think Hyperliquid can capture nearly half of the on-chain market share.

This will bring in $551 million in revenue in 2027. Currently, transaction fees go to the community, so we count them as actual revenue.

Magnifying the DeFi standard 15 times, we arrive at perp DEX is valued at $8.3 billion as a standalone business. If you are an enterprise customer, you can see our full model. Now let's look at L1:

DeFi application premiums are often used for L1 valuations as Hyperliquid continues to ramp up activity on its network.

Please. Be aware, the opportunities here are growing:

Hyperliquid has become the 11th largest TVL chain. Small networks such as Sei and Injective have valuations of 50 each. US$30 billion and US$3 billion. Parallel high-performance networks of similar size, such as Sui and Aptos, are valued at US$30 billion and US$12 billion respectively.

Given that HyperEVM has not yet launched, we value Hyperliquid using a conservative $5 billion L1 premium. In reality, if we priced L1 at current market prices, this could be closer to $10 billion or more High.

So the basic situation is:

Hyperliquid’s perp The DEX is worth $8.3 billion and the underlying L1 is worth $5 billion. The base case FDV is about $3 billion and the bull case is about $34 billion. The encryption app is vertically integrated with a high-performance early alt-L1.