Source: Deep Wave TechFlow

At 18:15:05 on January 3, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto wrote the front page of The Times that day in the Bitcoin genesis block Article title: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks" (January 3, 2009 The chancellor is on the verge of enacting a second round of emergency bank bailouts).

Who would have thought that this digital asset, born in the shadow of the financial crisis, would break through the historic mark of US$100,000 on December 5, 2024, becoming a financial giant with a market value of nearly US$2 trillion. beast.

From being worthless at the beginning, to exchanging 10,000 Bitcoins for two pizzas in 2010; by 2011, early participants hailed that Bitcoin was about to break through 10 yuan; by 2017, it broke through 10,000 US dollars for the first time Sparking a Global Sensation to a Bitcoin Spot ETF in 2024 Through it, it landed in the US stock market... This "Internet bubble" that was once scorned has now become the "digital gold" pursued by Wall Street financial giants such as BlackRock and Fidelity.

Every transformation of Bitcoin is amazing, rewriting people's understanding of currency, value and wealth.

Then the question is, do you hold Bitcoin? Have you got your Bitcoin?

Recently, many traders and practitioners in the encryption industry have received messages similar to "Congratulations, you have made a fortune recently." At this time, they often can only reply awkwardly: "Not bad, not bad." "Okay." Others think you are being modest, but you are the only one who is crying silently.

There are two heartbreaking and unexpected facts: This is a bull market unique to Bitcoin, and most retail investors no longer hold Bitcoin.

Why does Bitcoin stand out in this cycle?

This is a top conspiracy with a script that has been arranged for a long time.

Let us go back to 4 a.m. on January 11, 2024, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 spot BTC ETFs, including BlackRock IBIT.

Perhaps as Wang Chuan said: "The significance of January 10, 2024 in the history of world currency, looking back in the future, may be comparable to August 13, 1971 (Nixon announced the decoupling from gold), 1871 On January 18, 2016 (Germany was unified and led European countries and the United States to join the gold standard system within a few years).”

Spot ETF. The approval opened the floodgates for institutional funds to enter the market. From then on, Bitcoin is Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are others.

As of NovemberOn the 21st, in just 10 months, Bitcoin ETFs attracted a cumulative capital inflow of US$100 billion, which is equivalent to 82% of the size of U.S. gold ETFs, and is only one step away from surpassing it.

Bitcoin is no longer a speculative market dominated by retail investors, but is gradually dominated by traditional financial institutions. Whether it is Wall Street financial institutions, listed companies in various countries, or even some sovereignties, a battle for funding is taking place.

The most representative player in this battle is MSTR (MicroStrategy), a US listed company.

MSTR’s original main business was enterprise analysis software. In August 2020, under the leadership of Chairman Michael Saylor, MSTR announced that it would spend US$250 million to purchase 21,454 BTC, becoming the first company in the world to implement Listed company for bitcoin funding strategies.

MSTR’s strategy for buying Bitcoin is to borrow money at an interest rate of about 1% to buy Bitcoin by issuing stocks and bonds. According to the disclosure, MSTR has made approximately 40 Bitcoin purchase announcements over the past four years.

As of now (December 5), MSTR has held more than 402,100 Bitcoins, accounting for approximately 1.5% of the total global supply of Bitcoin, making it the world's largest listed company Bitcoin holder . MSTR has spent a total of US$23.483 billion to purchase Bitcoin, with an average cost of approximately US$58,402. So far, the floating profit on its books has exceeded US$16.7 billion.

On November 20, MSTR’s share price once exceeded US$500, and its market value exceeded US$100 billion. The trading volume on that day even surpassed that of NVIDIA, the leading US stock market, which was about US$12 compared with August 2020 when it started to accumulate Bitcoin. The stock price has increased more than 40 times, making it a bullish stock in the US stock market.

Buy Bitcoin first, then issue stocks at the premium of Bitcoin, and then issue bonds using Bitcoin as collateral. If Bitcoin rises, the company’s stock price rises, then issue bonds and stocks and continue to buy... Under the guidance of micro-strategy demonstrations, major listed companies around the world have followed suit. Japanese listed company Metaplanet, US listed medical company Semler Scientific, German listed company Samara Asset Group, Hong Kong listed companies Meitu Xiuxiu, Boyaa Interactive and many other companies have launched Bitcoin buying hoarding pattern.

Statistics show that more than 60 public companies are currently hoarding Bitcoin, and thousands of private companies are also following suit.

MSTR CEO Michael Saylor is already one of the most influential evangelists of Bitcoin, promoting Bitcoin everywhere.

Michael Saylor will have three minutes to address Microsoft directorsHe will introduce the Bitcoin buying strategy, and he has previously said that if Microsoft converts part of its cash into Bitcoin every quarter, it can create trillions of dollars in value for shareholders in the next 10 years and increase the market value by hundreds of billions of dollars.

Bitcoin ETF has opened the channel, and MSTR personally buys and brings goods, but the real credit for the recent rapid surge of Bitcoin should be attributed to one person-Trump.

At the Bitcoin 2024 conference in July, Trump publicly promised to build the United States into the global "cryptocurrency capital" and establish a Bitcoin reserve.

In late September, Trump and his three sons, Donald Jr., Eric and Barron, unveiled their latest venture, World Liberty Financial. Dubbed a decentralized finance (DeFi) money market platform, the new venture has launched a proprietary cryptocurrency called $WLFI.

Trump himself also followed suit and became "the first U.S. president to buy a hamburger with Bitcoin."

Trump’s assistant, Vice President Vance, is also a “currency insider.” According to disclosed personal financial reports, as of 2022, he has assets worth US$100,000 to US$250,000 in the crypto exchange Coinbase. USD Bitcoin.

In addition, Musk, one of the biggest contributors to Trump’s victory this round and the world’s richest man, is also a well-known cryptocurrency enthusiast. He pushed Tesla to include Bitcoin in its financial statements. The support for Dogecoin is particularly active, and even the Department of Government Efficiency (abbreviation: DOGE) with the same name was established in the name of Dogecoin DOGE.

During Biden’s term, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), headed by Gary Gensler, launched an unprecedented crackdown on the cryptocurrency industry. From filing a lawsuit against Ripple to launching a blockbuster lawsuit against Binance and its CEO Changpeng Zhao; from identifying a large number of crypto tokens as unregistered securities, frequently issuing sky-high fines to various crypto projects, to issuing threatening letters to Coinbase... US Cryptocurrency The market has been shrouded in regulatory haze.

Trump’s coming to power marked a complete turn for cryptocurrency in the United States, clearing away the haze and clearing away institutional obstacles for the development of cryptocurrency in the United States.

To sum up, the script elements of this top conspiracy were pieced together through various coincidences:

As the United States begins its interest rate cut cycle, the Bitcoin ETF passes, and BlackRock , Vanguard and other Wall Street giants have joined Bitcoin interest groups, leading a large amount of money to pour into Bitcoin.

MSTR CEO Michael Saylor turned into the Bitcoin Milk King and continued to borrow money to increase his position in Bitcoin. The currency price and stock price spiraled, attracting many listed companies to imitate the game.

After Trump won the election, the new U.S. president personally endorsed Bitcoin, removed institutional obstacles, and planned to use BTC as a U.S. strategic reserve asset.

All plans and actions are well-known, everyone has a chance to enter the game, and everyone who enters the game will make a profit... This is the top conspiracy. Through ETF products led by Wall Street financial giants, the United States is converting Bitcoin into Coin, a decentralized rebel, transformed into a controlled financial instrument.

The question is, why is it Bitcoin? Why can it only be Bitcoin?

The narrative charm of Bitcoin is that it is simple enough, does not require technical delivery and cannot be falsified. Like a perfect closed loop, every crisis strengthens rather than weakens its value proposition.

In 2009, it was born on the ruins of the financial crisis, with the mission of fighting inflation and the banking system; during the 2020 epidemic, countries printed money through unlimited quantitative easing, making Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative shine even brighter ; In 2022, during the Russia-Ukraine war, Bitcoin became a weapon in the invisible financial war, explaining what super-sovereign currencies are and once again verified the importance of decentralized assets; in 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, geopolitical tensions As turmoil intensifies, Bitcoin has perfectly played the role of a safe-haven asset.

From the early "digital gold" to the later "super-sovereign asset" to the "Web3 cornerstone", every narrative of Bitcoin has been reinforced in reality.

In the encryption world, we have seen too many grand visions and complex technical solutions, but in the end, it is the simplest Bitcoin that can withstand the test of time. It requires no marketing, no roadmap, and no commitment to technology upgrades. Its value proposition is as simple and undeniable as the law of gravity: a decentralized, scarce, and immutable network of value.

That’s why it can only be Bitcoin. Because in a world full of uncertainty, the most precious thing is certainty. Bitcoin provides exactly this kind of certainty: a certain supply, a certain issuance rule, and a certain operating mechanism.

Now that it has crossed the $100,000 mark, the next step for Bitcoin will be to challenge gold’s status.

As of December 5, among the top ten assets in the world, gold ranks first in market value, reaching US$18 trillion, and Bitcoin has a market value of US$1.98 trillion, beating out silver and Saudi Aramco. seventh place.

Central banks of various countries are one of the core buyers of gold. Continuous international black swans and turbulent regional situations have promoted the demand for gold. From 2022 to 2023, global central banks' net purchases of gold exceeded 1,100 tons for two consecutive years. They were the largest buyers in the international gold market in the past three years and the main driver of this round of gold price increases.

Looking at the breakdown, Europe and the United States are net sellers of gold, and emerging markets are net buyers.Depending on the relationship, we increase our holdings of gold and reduce our holdings of U.S. Treasuries.

The trend of de-dollarization is reshaping the landscape of global reserve assets.

Compared with gold, Bitcoin has disadvantages in terms of cultural consensus and market value, but it also has its unique advantages.

Compared to gold, Bitcoin’s supply is more transparent and predictable, never exceeding 21 million. After the halving in 2024, the number of new Bitcoins added per day will drop to 450, and the annual inflation rate will be only 0.8%. By comparison, annual gold production is still around 3,500 tonnes, equivalent to an inflation rate of 2-3%.

The digital nature of Bitcoin gives it significant advantages in cross-border transfer and storage management. It does not require a special vault or complex transportation. A cold wallet can store billions of dollars of assets. , which is particularly important in times of geopolitical tension.

Bitcoin does not belong to any party, is not controlled by a single party, is easy to transfer, and has transparent supply. These characteristics make it an ideal reserve asset supplement.

On the week of Trump’s victory, the total assets of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF-iShares (IBIT) reached US$34.3 billion, surpassing its gold trust fund (IAU). You must know that gold ETF Already 20 years old.

If Trump really fulfills his promise to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve of the United States, the significance of this signal will far exceed the actual amount purchased. The financial system we are familiar with will be rewritten.

Just like when the U.S. dollar was linked to gold, the attitude of the United States directly determined the fate of the entire Bretton Woods system. Today, the United States’ attitude toward Bitcoin may also trigger a paradigm shift in reserve assets.

We have seen some preliminary signs. El Salvador took the lead in incorporating Bitcoin into legal tender. Although it is small, it sets a precedent; some sovereign wealth funds are also quietly investing in Bitcoin, such as the Singaporean Sovereign Fund. Fund Temasek has invested in a number of cryptocurrency-related companies; Bhutan has been actively mining Bitcoin since 2021...

If more people start to include Bitcoin in reserve asset allocation, even if only 1-5% is allocated proportion, the demand for Bitcoin will also produce a qualitative leap. You know, the scale of global foreign exchange reserves exceeds 12 trillion US dollars.

Institutional investors continue to absorb market liquidity through ETFs, long-term holders continue to increase, exchange circulation continues to decline, and listed companies hoard Bitcoin. If the demand for sovereign reserves is superimposed, the scarcity of Bitcoin will Premiums will be pushed to a whole new level.

If this is the case, there are only 21 million Bitcoins, which is destined to be insufficient to buy.