Author: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise; Compiled by: 0xjs@金财经

Every year, the Bitwise team gets together to make annual predictions for the future of cryptocurrency. The process required hours of discussion, debate and reflection among more than a dozen team members. This is one of our most exciting events every year.

We will release our 2025 forecast on December 10. Hint: We think 2025 is going to be crazy. But before we jump into next year's predictions, it's worth taking a look back at how 2024 will play out.

Background: Looking back at December 2023

First, let us introduce the scene.

We published our 2024 forecast on December 12, 2023. Cryptocurrencies were in a very different position at the time. Bitcoin is trading at $43,750 and anti-crypto rhetoric in Washington, D.C. is fierce. Just days before we published our 2024 predictions, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon testified at a congressional hearing that he has been "vehemently opposed to cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, etc." And then said, "If I were , I would shut it down."

The progress made in 2024 is amazing. Bitcoin currently trades near $100,000, pro-cryptocurrency politicians dominate Washington and Wall Street firms are eager to grow in the space. But none of this will be apparent when we develop our annual forecasts in December 2023.

Let's see how we do.

2024 Prediction 1: Bitcoin will trade above $80,000, setting a new all-time high.

Result: Correct

Our prediction is accurate. Bitcoin topped $80,000 in November and has continued to rise, currently trading near $100,000. Our thesis at the time — that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF and the Bitcoin halving would combine to drive prices higher — was absolutely correct.

We will announce our 2025 price targets next week and add price targets for Ethereum and Solana. stay tuned.

Prediction 2: A spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved and will become the most successful ETF launch ever.

Result: Correct

This is also a victory. The spot Bitcoin ETF approved in January 2024 has become the most successful ETF launch to date. As of December 1, 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $31 billion in inflows. The previous record for "the most successful ETF launch in history" was the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which went public in 1999 and attracted $5 billion in assets in its first year. goldThe ETF attracted just under $2 billion in its first year. Bitcoin ETF flows are multiples of that number and still growing.

Prediction 3: Coinbase will double revenue and beat Wall Street expectations (earnings) by at least 10 times.

Result: Correct

This will be a close contest. Coinbase will have revenue of $3.1 billion in 2023 and $4.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2024. Will it hit $6.2 billion by the end of the year? I think it can. The fourth quarter was a phenomenal quarter for cryptocurrencies.

Coinbase remains one of the most fascinating companies in the world, and in our opinion, undervalued. We’ll also be releasing a series of Coinbase-related predictions next week.

Prediction 4: More funds will be settled using stablecoins than will be settled using Visa.

Result: Incorrect

In the first six months of 2024, the global stablecoin settlement amount reached US$5.1 trillion, a significant increase from the same period last year. But they have yet to catch up to Visa, which settled $6.5 trillion in the same period. Close but not yet victorious.

Prediction 5: As Wall Street prepares to tokenize real-world assets, JPMorgan will tokenize a fund and launch it on-chain.

Result: Incorrect

I really want this dream to come true. It would be a sweet irony to see JPMorgan Chase, whose CEO once railed about having Washington “shut down” cryptocurrencies, tokenize its own fund.

We are very close to success! Wall Street tokenized funds are a big theme in 2024. BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, Guggenheim, UBS, Societe Generale and others have all taken this step. JPMorgan has invested heavily in tokenization, reinventing its tokenization platform and calling tokenization “the next generation of financial infrastructure.” But the company didn't actually launch the fund, so we can't claim victory.

Prediction 6: Ethereum revenue will more than double to $5 billion as users flock to crypto applications.

Result: Incorrect

What we said before was outrageous. Ethereum-based application activity will increase significantly in 2024, but revenue will likely end the year slightly below last year’s $2 billion. Why? Ethereum’s “Dencun” upgrade in March reduced network fees by 99%. We ultimately think this is good for the network, but the short-term hit to revenue is challenging.

Prediction 7: Taylor Swift will launch NFT to connect with fans in new ways.

Result: Incorrect

That didn't happen, but it's still an area to watch in 2025. Taylor has reportedly been concerned about whether NFTs are securities. ifAs we get more clarity on the regulation of NFTs in the coming year, the issue may be back on the agenda.

Prediction 8: Artificial intelligence assistants will use cryptocurrencies for online payments and confirm cryptocurrencies as the “native currency of the internet.”

Result: Correct

In July, legendary venture capitalist Marc Andreessen donated $50,000 worth of Bitcoin to an AI robot called Truth Terminal. The bot ultimately helped popularize a meme coin — Goatseus Maximus (GOAT) — now worth $674 million. We suspect that AI bots will make widespread use of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins in the coming years. As crazy as the GOAT experiment was, it provided an amazing proof of concept.

Prediction 9: More than $100 million will be invested in prediction markets as they emerge as cryptocurrency’s new “killer app.”

Result: Correct

Of all our predictions, this is the one I am most proud of.

In December 2023, few people had heard of Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market that allowed users to bet on the outcome of global events. But we are fans of the platform and think it will take off as the US election approaches. Boy, were we right: the total amount staked on the platform jumped from $8 million at the time of our forecast to peak levels of over $500 million. Polymarket became a household name in the process. It also proved particularly prescient in the 2024 election.

In our 2025 predictions article, we predict the next breakthrough crypto applications.

Prediction 10: A major upgrade to the Ethereum blockchain will bring average transaction costs below $0.01, paving the way for more mainstream uses.

Result: Correct

I'm going to do the math on this. Average transaction costs on many Ethereum layer 2 networks have dropped by more than 90% year-over-year and currently hover between $0.01 and $0.02. But it fell below $0.01 this summer, and I believe we will reach that level again soon as the underlying technology continues to improve. Sub-cent transactions on major blockchains will change the world.

Bonus prediction: By the end of 2024, one in four financial advisors will allocate cryptocurrency to client accounts.

Results: To be determined

Every year, we survey financial advisors to find out how many hold cryptocurrency in client accounts. In 2023, only 11% said “yes.” The survey for late 2024 is still ongoing, so we don’t know yet if the 25% level will be reached. One potential headwind: Large, large banks such as Wells Fargo, UBS and Merrill LynchBanks have not yet approved a spot Bitcoin ETF. But we think it's a matter of when, not if.

Conclusion

So how did we do? Six right, four wrong, and one pending. Considering how aggressive our predictions are—Bitcoin price doubling, prediction markets soaring, Ethereum fees dropping 99%, all in a rapidly changing space—we’re going to take it.

But what is certain is: our accuracy rate will be higher in 2025. stay tuned.