Author: Alex O'Donnell, CoinTelegraph; Compiler: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

According to historical market performance data in the US election year, on January 20, 2025, US President-elect Donald Trump The bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market may slow down after Trump takes office.

In the United States, stocks as well as cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin performed well in the weeks after the presidential election before cooling off once the president-elect took office, according to data from Bloomberg and researcher Macrobond Financial.

This is especially true when the sitting president is a Republican, according to data from research group TS Lombard. Republicans are generally seen as more business-friendly, sparking greater market excitement after the election.

According to reports, Citi US equity strategist Scott Cronut wrote in a research report in November: "If the S&P 500 exceeds our year-end bull market target of 6,100 points Target, investors should strategically shy away from the post-election rally, which is broadly in line with the index's 5% gain since Election Day." Data showed the market performance followed an initial post-inauguration correction. rebound.

As of December 2, the S&P 500 index was at 6,047 points, up nearly 4.5% since November 5, according to data from Google Finance.

Cryptocurrencies surged following Trump’s election, with many saying his victory would benefit the industry, Cointelegraph Research said.

Bitcoin's price gains have been particularly pronounced, with the world's most popular cryptocurrency rising more than 30% following the election. Solana achieved similar gains.

Other analysts believe that Bitcoin’s rally will continue after the inauguration, albeit with bumps along the way. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, said BTC prices could retrace 30% before resuming the bullish trend.

The analyst noted on November 27: "Historical data trends suggest that Bitcoin may still correct as much as 30% before reaching a cyclical high."

It is assumed that such a correction would bring the price of Bitcoin down to around $70,000 per coin.

Web3 investment firm MV Global noted that investors expect the cryptocurrency bull market to continue into 2025 and peak in the second half of the year.

Binance Research said that historically, Bitcoin has been “considered a high-risk asset with strong correlations with U.S. stock markets” — particularly the U.S. tech stock index Nasdaq — but in recent months Come, this relationship has weakened.

Binance stated: “SinceSince March 2024, the rolling 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq has fallen to 0.46, one of the lowest levels in five years. ”

Nevertheless, a nearly 50% correlation to the U.S. stock market means BTC faces significant risk of a broader market downturn.

Ethereum is (ETH) has an even higher correlation with the Nasdaq, at around 0.66.