Source: Zeping Macro
On January 20, 2025, Trump will be officially sworn in as President of the United States. At present, Trump has started the process of nominating cabinet members and important officials. The new cabinet's governing ideas are gradually becoming clearer, and its attitude towards China is gradually becoming clearer.
After Trump returns to the White House, where will China-US relations go? How to deal with it?
1 Meige OverviewThe United States pursues the "separation of powers" system. The two houses of Congress, the Supreme Court, and the President enjoy legislative, judicial, and executive powers respectively. The Constitution limits the role of each branch through a system of checks and balances. The Supreme Court has the power to declare that laws enacted by Congress or actions taken by the President are inconsistent with the Constitution; Congress can impeach the President, federal judiciary, and judges.
The president can propose legislative proposals to Congress, and has the power to veto laws passed by Congress and to nominate candidates for justices; he can bypass Congress and independently exercise his power to make foreign treaties by signing executive orders. The Executive Office of the President and the Cabinet assist the President in governing.
The structure of the Executive Office of the President began in 1939. President Roosevelt established the Executive Office in his second term, consisting of the General Office and the Bureau of Budget. Since then, administrative agencies such as the Council of Economic Advisers, the Homeland Security Council, the Office of the United States Trade Representative, and the Office of Homeland Security have been established through presidential executive orders. Currently, members of the executive office include staff, advisers, and those who report directly to the president and the president. The office is headed by the White House chief of staff. Generally, members of the Executive Office of the President do not need to be vetted by the Senate, except for cabinet-level holders.
The presidential cabinet structure began in 1789. It is more of an organization that assists the president in governing. Generally, the vice president and 15 cabinet ministers serve as the main members, including the vice president, secretary of state, , Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of Attorney, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Homeland Security Minister etc.
The president will promote some officials to the cabinet level as needed, including the White House Chief of Staff, Director of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of Intelligence, Trade Representative, Ambassador to the United Nations, and Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers , Director of the Small Business Administration, and others. Trump nominated the Director of Intelligence and the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency to the cabinet during his last term, and disqualified the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers from being a cabinet member; Biden nominated the Director of the Office of Science and Technology to the cabinet during his term, disqualifying the Ambassador to the United Nations from being a cabinet member.
2 A panoramic view of Trump and his cabinet’s thoughtsOn November 6, Trump announced that he had won the election and initiated the nomination of “Trump 2.0” cabinet members and important officials. . as of 11On March 23, the prototypes of teams in the fields of diplomacy, national defense, justice, internal affairs and other fields were basically formed.
In the field of diplomacy and security, the nomination of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Mike Walz as Security Advisor sent a tough signal towards China. Nominated Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, Kristi Noem as Secretary of Homeland Security, Tom Homan as Border Administrator (“Border Czar”); Nominated Elise Stefanik as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, nominated Steve Witkoff as special envoy to the Middle East; nominated John Ratcliffe as director of the Central Intelligence Agency; nominated Tulsi Gabbard as director of intelligence.
In the field of domestic affairs, Suzy Wells was nominated as White House Chief of Staff (Chief of Staff), Stephen Miller was nominated as Deputy Chief of Staff, and Lee Zeldin was nominated as Director of the Environmental Protection Agency , nominated Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead the Department of Efficiency, and nominated Matt Gates as Attorney General.
Among Trump’s nominated officials, the proportion of candidates with business and media backgrounds is higher than that of previous presidents, the cabinet’s racial diversity is low, and the proportion of white men is relatively high. The characteristics were also reflected in the previous term. Looking back at the initial nominations of presidential cabinets from Reagan to Trump (first term), Trump’s cabinet team has the highest proportion of white men, is inclusive of women, but the proportion is low, and the degree of racial diversity is low; in addition, officials with business backgrounds account for The ratio is on the high side and the proportion of officials is low.
The turnover rate of cabinet members in the previous term was high. Trump had replaced three chiefs of staff and three chiefs of staff due to "disagreements" and other issues. Minister of Security and two terms Minister of Defence. In this nomination, Trump pays more attention to and prefers candidates who are “highly consistent with his ideology, or whose ideology is more extreme” to improve his execution capabilities in trade, immigration, military and other fields in the next four years. Among the nominees, Secretary Rubio, CIA Director Ratcliffe, Defense Secretary Hegseth and Security Advisor Walz advocate toughness against China, which may intensify the tension between China and the United States in trade, finance, technology, military and geopolitical fields. conflict.
Specifically,
1) Secretary of State candidate Marco Rubio, responsible for Trump’s foreign affairs and international affairs. Rubio is "interventionist" and "hawkish", with rich diplomatic experience and a tough attitude. He once supported the US invasion of Iraq, sanctions on Iran, etc., and supported Israel.
In recent years, Rubio has been a hawk on China across the board, covering finance, trade, human rights and other fields, believing that China's rise threatens the status of the United States. In 2021, he launched a proposal to ban companies that threaten security from listing on the U.S. stock exchange; interfered with human rights and called for a boycott of imported Xinjiang products; criticized the United States for allowing it to join the WTO; believed that diplomatic behavior and the "Belt and Road" initiative are threatening the hegemony of the United States. In November, Rubio published an article in The Economist stating that the United States should end the Russia-Ukraine warand war in the Middle East, shifting strategic goals to .
2) Security Advisor candidate Mike Walz, whose position does not require Senate confirmation and is directly appointed by the president. Trump considers Walz a defender of "peace through strength." Walz served in the U.S. Army and was deployed in Afghanistan, the Middle East and Africa, and has rich military experience; he served as the defense director for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Gates, and served as a counterterrorism adviser to former Vice President Dick Dickson. ·Cheney.
Walz and Rubio are both representatives of the hawkish stance on China in the Republican Party and consider it an "existential threat." In 2020, as a member of the House of Representatives' special group, he released a more than 140-page "CHINA TASK FORCE" report, covering issues such as ideology, supply chain, security, technology, economy, energy, and competition. The report included 82 key points. and 400 forward-looking recommendations. In addition, it is proposed to ban the U.S. Federal Savings Plan (TSP) from investing in China and Russia; support the establishment of good relations with Asian allies to restrain the United States.
3) White House Chief of Staff (Chief of Staff) candidate Susie Wells is deeply trusted by Trump and will be the first person to be appointed in American history The woman who is the White House chief of staff has relatively rich communication and management experience, but insufficient experience.
Suzy Wells, a long-time Republican campaign veteran, was once described by Politico as a "fearful and little-known figure." In 1980, he served the Reagan campaign. In 2010, he helped businessman Rick Scott be elected governor of Florida, ending Democratic control. In 2016, he participated in the Trump campaign and was responsible for Florida operations. In 2018, Trump appointed him to help Ron Sanditis is running for governor of Florida. In 2021, he will serve as the CEO of Trump's "Save America" operation, and in 2022, he will serve as Trump's campaign manager. On November 7, Trump nominated Susie Wells as White House Chief of Staff, responsible for the Executive Office of the President.
4) Department of Commerce Secretary candidate Howard Lutnick, with a business background, is the chairman and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald and BGC Group. Hold multiple fundraisers for Trump in the 2020 and 2024 elections. Advocates support Trump's extensive tariffs and high tariffs to encourage the return of cryptocurrencies and manufacturing. Lutnick is also responsible for the Office of the United States Trade Representative, implementing the "tariff and trade agenda" and ensuring the smooth progress of Trump's commitments such as "universal tariffs", "combating unfair trade" and "reshoring manufacturing". In the future, Trump will impose more systematic controls on economic and trade negotiations, tariff trade, export promotion, and unfair competition.
5) U.S. Trade Representative candidate Jamison Greer, with a legal background, worked at King & Spalding Law Firm is responsible for corporate trade remedy issues, import and export compliance and investment security matters. From 2017 to 2021, he served as Deputy to Trade Representative Lighthizer and was responsible for the formulation and negotiation of tariffs with China. Trump believes that Greer can control the huge U.S. trade deficit and defend the manufacturing, agriculture and service industries.
6) Finance Minister candidate Scott Bessant has a business background and is the founder of Key SquareGroup, a global macro investment company. In 2016, he donated US$1 million to Trump's presidential campaign; in 2024, he organized multiple fundraising events for Trump and made an important contribution to his victory. Bessent suggested incorporating Abe's "Three Arrows" plan into Trump's economic blueprint, calling for deregulation, increasing energy production, reducing the deficit to 3%, and stimulating U.S. GDP to reach 3%. It is worth noting that Bessant’s advocacy is not consistent with Trump’s “weak dollar to promote exports” strategy, and Trump may weaken the power of the Finance Minister in the trade field.
7) Defense Minister candidate Peter Hegseth, with a "soldier + media person" background, is responsible for security and military strategic affairs, supervising military and national defense situations; has a military and media background, and is conservative , pay attention to veterans’ benefits. He is highly influential in Fox News. He is the co-host of "Fox & Friends Weekend" and a retired soldier. He has participated in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. He interviewed Trump twice on Fox TV and became one of his biggest defenders.
8) John Ratcliffe, candidate for director of the Central Intelligence Agency, is responsible for the work of the US intelligence agency; he served as Trump’s intelligence director and has a tough attitude towards China. Ratcliffe once emphasized in a column in the Wall Street Journal that it is "the greatest threat to the United States and the greatest threat to democracy and freedom around the world since World War II."
9) Border chief Tom Homan served as acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement during Trump’s first term.
10) Department of Homeland Security candidate Kristi Noem, responsible for security, emergency management and immigration, supports Trump immigration.
11) Trump’s new Department of Efficiency, co-led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. The department aims to reduce federal spending, reorganize agencies, and improve efficiency. However, the president "cannot unilaterally reorganize agencies" and needs to "apply to Congress for the power to reorganize." The issue of reorganization and abolition may face bipartisan opposition, making advancement difficult.
Elon Musk, with a business background, is the founder of SpaceX, CEO of Tesla, owner of X (formerly Twitter), and co-founder of OpenAI. The commercial sector involves commercial aerospace, new energy vehicles, social platforms, artificial intelligence, infrastructure, banking and other fields, and is relatively friendly to China. CCTV news reports show that Musk’s business sector relies heavily on federal contracts and rules. And BidenThe last four years have been pretty cool to it. In early 2024, Musk announced his support for the Trump campaign and became the second largest individual donor, donating more than $110 million and playing an important role in promoting the seven major swing states. For this reason, Trump’s attitude towards electric vehicles has changed from opposition to support. From a personal standpoint, Musk advocates streamlining federal agencies and cutting federal staff, believing that "the budget can save US$2 trillion."
Vivek Ramaswamy, an Indian businessman with a background in biotechnology and finance, is a good friend of Vice President Vance. From a political standpoint, Ramaswamy opposes affirmative action and LGBT. During his campaign, he promised to fire 75% of federal staff and abolish five agencies including the Department of Education and the FBI.
12) Stephen Miller, candidate for White House Deputy Chief of Staff. Served as a senior adviser and held far-right, anti-immigration stances. He was the main person responsible for the "Muslim" ban, and was one of the main architects of the construction of the wall and the separation of families.
3 Trump 2.0: America first, containment of ChinaThe Republican Party pursued "isolationism" and "America first" in diplomacy. Trump has changed the diplomacy of the Obama era, waging war on all sides and offending allies.
Trump is waging a trade war and exerting maximum pressure on China. Sino-US trade friction continues to escalate, and the United States has launched an all-out war with China in terms of technology, diplomacy, geography, international public opinion, and finance.
Collect tariff benefits through the trade war and allow manufacturing to return, launch 301 investigations, impose multiple rounds of tariffs, and sign the "U.S.-Canada-Mexico Free Trade Agreement" to set up "poison pill clauses" to target.
Use technology war to curb the vitality of innovation and suppress high-tech companies such as Huawei and DJI; propose a clean network plan that requires cutting off ties with China and Japan in the fields of operators, application stores, applications, cloud services and submarine cables ; Signed an executive order prohibiting any transactions between the United States and TikTok, WeChat and their parent companies ByteDance and Tencent; and imposed visa restrictions on employees of technology companies.
Using geopolitical wars to disrupt Taiwan and the surrounding peaceful and stable development environment, it passed the "Hong Kong Autonomy Act" to intervene in Taiwan affairs to challenge sovereignty and territorial integrity; it also imposed sanctions on countries that are relatively friendly to China.
In the field of international organizations and rules, the United States does not recognize the market economy and developing country status, and unilaterally pressures the WTO to modify international rules.
In the field of international public opinion, it controls public opinion in traditional Western media and emerging social media, and unites allies to jointly slander the international image and discredit the “One Belt, One Road” initiative.
In his second term, Trump’s internal goal is still to “reshor the manufacturing industry” and promote employment, while externally he will continue to maintain “America First”. With the advantage of having a majority in both houses of Congress, Trump can more smoothly implement large-scale general tariffs and promote related bills.
Specifically,
1) At the China level, additional tariffs will be imposed and strategic decoupling will occur. In the field of trade, a general tax collection of 60%Basic tariffs, canceling the most-favored nation trade status, phasing out all imported necessities, especially biomedical products; and taking strong measures to ensure that restrictions on exports to the United States cannot be bypassed through third countries. In the field of investment, American companies are prohibited from investing in China, acquiring American companies and investing in infrastructure projects, and investing in new energy vehicles in the United States. In the field of talent, restrict the issuance of work visas and talent exchanges for talents in the science and technology field, investigate the sources of research funds for universities, etc. In the geopolitical field, it interferes with sovereignty, strengthens relations with Asian allies (Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc.) and restricts development. The most fundamental and essential thing is to contain the rise and maintain US hegemony.
2) At the international trade level, based on "America First", Trump has imposed a general tariff of 10%-20% to force trading partners to reduce tariffs on American products and speed up manufacturing. industry recovery and reshoring to promote U.S. employment. Including opposing the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP); increasing tariffs indiscriminately and imposing "basic tariffs" on all; further increasing tariffs on those who implement "unfair" trade practices; implementing the "Trump Reciprocal Trade Act" to ensure that American products Obtain the lowest tariff levels for each country.
3) In terms of international relations and security, Trump insists on reshaping military power and having allies bear military expenses; he opposes war and shifts military strategic goals to the Asia-Pacific region, repairing relations with North Korea and maintaining relations with Asia-Pacific allies. Its attitude toward allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia is better than that of its European allies.
4) At the domestic level, reduce taxes and fees, and commit to gradually abolishing regulations that harm employment; support increasing local energy production, abolishing Biden's taxes, and lowering corporate tax rates to reduce inflation. Develop traditional energy and withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement; expand energy infrastructure construction. Crack down on illegal immigration, implement stricter immigration laws, and cancel benefits for illegal immigrants.
4 Containing China is the consensus of both parties in the United States. How to deal with the rising trade war expectations?Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States in 1979, Sino-US relations can be divided into three stages: 1) Win-win cooperation (1979-2000): Later, in order to promote the move to the Western model, free economy, and gain access to markets, the United States wooed and supported joining WTO. The two parties are generally friendly towards China and have a consensus to engage with China.
2) Competition and cooperation (2000-2008): China and the United States have competition and cooperation. The 2000 Republican Party platform proposed that "China is a strategic competitor of the United States, not a strategic partner." However, after the 911 incident, the United States needed In order to cooperate with other countries to fight against terrorism, the United States implements "engagement" and "containment" strategies. At this stage, the two parties have different positions on China. The Republican Party's attitude towards China has turned to a combination of toughness and co-optation. The Democratic Party advocates continued contact with the United States and believes that the deterioration of Sino-US relations will harm the security interests of the United States. However, it is also concerned about human rights issues.
3) Strategic containment (2008-present): The United States has been hit hard by the financial crisis, the gap between rich and poor has widened, and anti-globalization has risen.At the same time, it surpassed Japan to become the world's second largest economy, proposed the "One Belt, One Road" initiative, and intensified conflicts in the South China Sea. The United States has returned to the Asia-Pacific, implemented the "Asia-Pacific rebalancing", and comprehensively contained China. The two parties have returned to a consensus on China, that is, containment. The United States believes that this is capitalism in the economy, mercantilism in trade, and new expansionism in international relations.
The two parties in the United States have reached a tough consensus on China, regardless of who is elected as the president of the United States. The "National Defense Strategy Report" released by Trump at the end of 2017 has defined my country as a "strategic competitor." The "U.S. Strategic Approach to the People's Republic" released in 2020 further clarifies that the nature of Sino-US relations is one of great power competition and The strategic thinking of containing China will continue its existing attitude in the future and continue to introduce new containment measures against China. On May 20, 2020, the White House issued the "U.S. Strategic Approach to the People's Republic", clarifying that the nature of Sino-U.S. relations is great power competition. The Democratic Party platform released on July 21 emphasized that "the Democratic Party will take active action against any attempt to weaken American manufacturing. We will resist the theft of American intellectual property and demand an end to cyber espionage against American companies." "The Democratic Party will work with Together with our allies, we mobilize more than half of the world’s economies to confront each other and negotiate from the strongest position possible.” "We believe that Europe is a country that is guided by our interests and those of our allies, and uses the openness of our society, the vitality of our economy, and the strength of our alliances to shape international norms that reflect our values." A natural partner in competition."
At the beginning of the Sino-US trade friction in 2018, we made three major judgments: "China-US trade friction is long-term and increasingly severe", "This is a trade protection in the name of trade." "Our best response is to promote a new round of reform and opening up with greater determination and courage. In this regard, we must remain clear-headed, calm and strategically determined."
Faced with strategic containment from the United States, the best response is to be ourselves, promote reform and opening up with greater determination and intensity, and go all out for the economy. The macroeconomics of major countries are focused on us and serve the economy and employment. As long as the stock market prospers, real estate stabilizes, the economy recovers, employment improves, people's income increases, entrepreneurs actively invest, and everything is prosperous, global funds will continue to flow in to support economic development. Given time, the results will become apparent.