Author: Revc

1. The impact of Trump’s new term on the crypto market: Game with the economy

As Trump returns to lead the United States, the crypto market and related changes in 2025 have become the focus of investors. Trump’s first term promoted the prosperity of the U.S. stock market, gold market, and crypto assets through tax cuts, deregulation, trade wars, and currency measures. Now, as the new term approaches, changes in Trump's administration, the power structure of Congress, and the global economic environment will have a profound impact on the encryption market, and investors' anxiety and uncertainty have also intensified.

Crypto market changes: From skepticism to support

In Trump’s first term , the United States has a relatively conservative attitude towards the crypto market, especially in the supervision of crypto assets such as Bitcoin. However, with the gradual acceptance of blockchain technology, Trump began to shift towards supporting the encryption industry. It is expected that during his second term, Trump may encourage market liquidity and enhance investor confidence through tax cuts and crypto support, further supporting the rise of crypto assets.

Data related:

- Bitcoin has been around since 2017, when Trump took office $1,000, to close to $60,000 in 2021, and Trump’s support is expected to further push Bitcoin higher.

- According to the CoinShares 2024 Report, the U.S. market’s interest in crypto assets is rising year by year and is expected to continue to grow in 2025, especially driven by institutional investors .

The power structure of the House and Senate and the game of the encryption market

Trump’s The new term will face pressure from Congress, especially the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives. In the mid-term elections in November 2026, the Democratic Party may control the House of Representatives, which will impose constraints on Trump's promotion of crypto market-related activities, especially in terms of crypto asset regulation. Based on past experience, midterm elections are usually unfavorable to the ruling party. The president’s party loses an average of more than 20 seats in the House of Representatives and several seats in the Senate. However, Trump can still rely on Republican support in the Senate to push for some, particularly support for blockchain technology and crypto-assets. It is expected that the election results after 2026 may have a significant impact on Trump's execution.

Key figures:

-Elizabeth Warren (Democrat): has long advocated strengthening the supervision of crypto assets, especially is in the area of ​​anti-money laundering, tax compliance and market transparency.

- Brad Sherman (Democrat): Consistent with Warren in pushing for stricter anti-money laundering and financial stability measures.

Despite pressure from Democratic figures, Trump’s support in the Senate will help boost the crypto market.

2. Two relatively stable investment routes

In the current market uncertainty, investors can pay attention to the following two relatively stable investment routes: AI Agent Race track and Trump concept token.

AI Agent track: a stable and resilient investment direction

As the market changes Uncertainty, the AI ​​Agent track has become a safer investment direction. Several leading AI Agent projects have demonstrated strong rebound capabilities during the correction. For example, Virtuals Protocol has driven its market capitalization back to $2.1 billion through technology updates and new collaborations, and other projects such as AIXBT and Griffin have also performed well, driving up prices.

- The rebound and resilience of the AI ​​Agent track

Despite the risk of a correction in the overall crypto market , the AI ​​Agent track has become one of the best performing sectors. Several top projects have shown strong recovery power after experiencing corrections, with rebound rates as high as 130%. For example, Virtuals Protocol updated its mechanism after a sharp correction, allowing its market value to rise back to $2.1 billion, which enhanced market confidence and promoted price increases.

- Technological breakthroughs and ecological development of the AI ​​Agent track

AI Agent project in technology And ecological progress is one of the important reasons why it attracts investors. Virtuals Protocol has recently partnered with well-known brands such as Animoca Brands andThe cooperation with Illuvium further strengthens its ecosystem construction. Through collaboration with agency partners, the project promotes the incentive mechanism of the platform and ecosystem, further providing a solid foundation for ecological expansion.

- The difference between the independent trend of AI Agent and traditional projects

Compared with traditional encryption projects Compared with AI Agent, AI Agent has shown more innovative capabilities in operational governance, decentralized asset issuance, and technology applications. Thanks to these innovations, the AI ​​Agent track has attracted more investors with high risk appetite.

Trump Concept Token: Investment Opportunities and Market Momentum

With Trump With the gradual support of cryptocurrencies, many crypto projects related to him have begun to emerge, the most notable of which is the WLFI (World Liberty Financial) token. Although WLFI’s token terms and utility are not ideal, its deep relationship with Trump and the brand effect of the Trump family may provide additional market momentum for WLFI.

On the other hand, despite the uncertainty about WLFI's performance, more investors may pay attention to the cooperation projects selected by Trump. These projects are backed by Trump’s concepts and also have strong fundamentals. For example, projects such as Ethereum (ETH), Aave (AAVE), and Chainlink (LINK) have demonstrated strong market potential through cooperation with Trump. In particular, World Liberty's cooperation with platforms such as Ethereum and Scroll may bring more on-chain data and cross-chain connection applications, which provides strong support for the rise of related tokens.

In addition, the market’s attention to the concept of RWA (Real World Assets) is also increasing. Ondo Finance, as the leading project on the RWA track, has achieved significant gains in recent times. Trump’s policy may accelerate the maturity of the RWA concept, promote the combination of more physical assets and digital assets, and bring new investment opportunities to the market.

3. Trading Vane - Pay attention to the impact of the economy (CPI inflation) on the Federal Reserve’s decision-making

The Federal Reserve’s economic judgment, such as its assessment of employment rates and inflation levels, may Interferenced by principal component factors, especially in the context of the current rapid changes in economic structure.

The interference of employment changes in the technology and AI industries on economic indicators

With the vigorous development of the technology industry, especially the rapid rise of the AI ​​field, resulting The demand for high-skilled labor is surging. At the same time, the demand for human resources in traditional industries is slowing down, and there are even layoffs. This structural difference may lead to distortion of the overall employment data. For example, the reduction of employment in traditional industries may be offset by the decline in employment in emerging technology industries. Hidden behind high-paying jobs, the overall unemployment rate looks good.

Interference factors in the Federal Reserve's economic judgment

- Data lag and correction: lag and late correction of macroeconomic data It may cause the Fed's judgment based on lagging data to deviate from the actual economic situation

-Limitations of a single indicator: The Fed relies too much on some single economic indicators ( Such as core PCE inflation) may lead to one-sided judgments

- Geographical and emergencies: Geographical and unexpected events (such as natural disasters) will affect the economy. These factors are often difficult to predict and bring uncertainty to the Federal Reserve’s judgment.

Investors’ response strategies

Considering that the Federal Reserve’s judgment may be affected by many factors, investors can adopt the following strategies:< /p>

- Pay attention to a wider range of data: pay attention to detailed industry data, consumer confidence, corporate profits, etc.

- Pay attention to micro-level analysis: through industry and company analysis, Understand the economic and market conditions comprehensively.

- Maintain independent thinking: Do not blindly rely on the judgment of the Federal Reserve and make decisions based on your own research.

< p style="text-align: left;">- Manage risks well: The crypto market is highly volatile, so manage your positions well and avoid over-investment. 4. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes

The impact of the Bank of Japan’s movements on the world. The market has a major impact. According to the latest data, market expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at the January 23-24 meeting said that as confidence in wage growth increases, interest rates will increase. possibilitygreat.

The impact of interest rate hikes on global markets

Japan’s interest rate hikes may cause the yen to appreciate. This in turn affects global financial flows. There may be an outflow of funds away from riskier assets, such as cryptocurrencies, and towards more stable asset classes. In addition, interest rate hikes may lead to adjustments in Japanese investors' arbitrage trading strategies, affecting liquidity and risk appetite in global markets.

Summary

Trump's return has brought huge uncertainty and potential to the market, especially under the multifaceted changes in China, the United States, and the economy. His announcement is expected to drive up inflation, which will affect U.S. bond yields and gold prices, while exacerbating global trade tensions and potentially triggering volatility in the stock market. However, cryptoassets may benefit from increased clarity and institutional involvement. Investors should pay attention to investment opportunities such as the AI ​​Agent track and Trump concept tokens, and at the same time flexibly adjust strategies to respond to risks and opportunities brought about by changes, and grasp short-term volatility and long-term growth potential.