Image source: Generated by Unbounded AI

At 2 a.m. on December 1, two years ago, the American company OpenAI announced an artificial intelligence (AI) chat robot product based on the GPT-3.5 model, called ChatGPT.

An hour later, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Altman tweeted, "Language interfaces are going to be a big thing. I think talking to a computer (voice or text) will get you what you want, because the definition of "want" is getting more and more complicated! This is an early demonstration of what is possible (there are still many limitations, this is very much a research version)"

Maybe Altman didn't expect that, ChatG. PT is a product that can reach 1 million users in 5 days and 100 million users in 2 months. So far, ChatGPT has 250 million active users every week, breaking the App growth record and even driving OpenAI to grow into the world's most valued company with a trillion dollar valuation. AI companies have caused the market value of the world's top six technology giants, including Nvidia, to increase by more than 8 trillion U.S. dollars, and triggered a new round of global generative growth. AI startup boom.

"Although China will build as much nuclear power capacity in 10 years as the United States built in 40 years, the U.S. Navy has about 100 small modular reactors (SMRs) that power submarines. And the potential of AI "It provides an opportunity that cannot be missed to revitalize the American dream and reshape American industrialization." Not long ago, OpenAI released a "blueprint" for AI infrastructure that will help the United States stay ahead of competitors such as China in the field of AI.

At the same time, the American AI "Manhattan Project" was exposed. As China and the United States move from a "war of hundreds of models" to AI large models, the rapid commercialization of large AI models has become a key issue, and China faces huge opportunities in the field of application scenarios. Therefore, a global AI leadership competition involving China and the United States is about to enter a "life and death battle."

The US government announced the AGI "Manhattan Project", saying that the number of AI models in China exceeds that in the United States

What is the scale of generative AI in China now?

According to the "Generative Artificial Intelligence Application Development Report (2024)" released by the China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC) on November 30, as of June 2024, the number of users of China's generative AI products will be Reaching 230 million people, accounting for 16.4% of the entire population.

At present, China has initially built a relatively comprehensive AI industry system, with more than 4,500 related companies and a core industry scale of nearly 600 billion yuan. The industrial chain covers chips, algorithms, data, platforms, applications, etc. Key downstream links. As of July 2024, China has completed more than 190 large-scale generative artificial intelligence service models that have been registered and launched and can provide services to the public.

Therefore, various AI products are gradually entering people's lives, greatly improving users' quality of life and work efficiency.

In the past two years, ChatGPT has triggered the AI ​​craze in China. From university professors to entrepreneurs, from investors to academicians, ministers, etc., everyone is discussing AI. Large Internet technology companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, Byte, and Meituan have all finished building it. AI large models, AI applications, AI services, etc.

Although ChatGPT was born in the United States, it has developed and expanded in China. Therefore, the U.S. government seems to be panicking about this and has launched the AGI Manhattan Project to "go full blast" on the AI ​​track, attracting attention.

Recently, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) recommended that Congress “establish and fund a project similar to the Manhattan Project, dedicated to faster acquisition of artificial general intelligence (AGI) capabilities.” The Manhattan Project was a massive collaboration between the U.S. government and the private sector during World War II that resulted in the development and production of the first atomic bomb.

The USCC also recommended in the 793-page report that Congress allow government executive departments to sign contracts and fund artificial intelligence, cloud computing and data center companies to integrate government, enterprises and research institutions. to accelerate AGI-related research and ultimately establish "the United States' leading position in the field of AGI."

Currently common AI tools such as ChatGPT and AlphaFold can only complete specific tasks such as processing language materials and calculating protein structures, and can only be counted as "artificial intelligence in a narrow sense" (ANI). The reason why "general artificial intelligence" (AGI) is considered to have the potential to completely subvert human society and drive the explosion of human productivity is because it can learn and think independently like humans, and complete different types of tasks in multiple fields without human intervention. guide. For example, AGI can be used to formulate complex investment strategies and research methods to treat difficult diseases, and can be continuously iteratively upgraded.

In 2015, OpenAI had not yet appeared. Its predecessor was Y Combinator’s AI laboratory. Sam Altman, who was the president of YC at the time, invested $10 million of his own money. Then start recruiting people everywhere and make OpenAI independent. Later, when promoting his idea to Musk, Sam Altman called the upcoming OpenAI the "Manhattan Project of Artificial Intelligence." He wrote in an email communicating with Musk: "Have you ever thought about asking YC (a platform for incubating startups) to start a 'Manhattan Project' for artificial intelligence? My feeling is that we can start with 50 top people researchers and then make the technology available through some kind of non-profit model The technology belongs to the whole world. But if it succeeds, those who participate will also receive sufficient rewards.”

Not long after Trump was elected, OpenAI released the “American AI Infrastructure Blueprint”, which involves the artificial intelligence economy. districts, nuclear power projects, and government projects owned by private investors. The Blueprint hopes to create a joint effort between state and federal governments toCreated AI economic zone.

"Designed to incentivize states to expedite licensing and approval of artificial intelligence infrastructure." The company plans to build new solar panels and wind farms and put idle nuclear reactors into use to meet its infrastructure and energy needs for developing AI. In this blueprint, OpenAI also plans a North American artificial intelligence alliance specifically to compete with foreign competitors. "This report shows.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman warned that regulators should also be careful not to restrict the development of useful technologies. "We don't need to rush regulation. An overly conservative regulatory approach could distort the competitive landscape by promoting activity outside the regulated banking system or preventing the use of AI altogether. ”

Altman suggested that the United States should unite with allies such as the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, and South Korea to create a “world-class AI alliance” to achieve unified strategic goals and fight against those with different beliefs and values. country, thereby gaining leading dominance, alluding to isolating other countries such as China

Altman predicts that super AI may be completed within the next few thousand days

Next step: Accelerate AI Earning ability, OpenAI targets 1 billion users

“OpenAI will most likely become a martyr. "An industry expert admitted to TMTpost App that GPT-5 has not been released for a long time, and Scaling Law has actually slowed down. Openai is technology-driven. If there are no popular applications, he cannot admit the ceiling. Yes, but OpenAI and a number of technology companies are exploring commercial applications, so they have obvious problems.

Fu Sheng, chairman and CEO of Cheetah Mobile and chairman of Orion Star, told Titanium Media App. Emphasize that 2025 (next year) should be It’s been a prosperous year for AI applications. OpenAI has strengthened its product capabilities and application capabilities this year, and the same is true for 4o. The new conversation mode is particularly smooth, and it can also be regarded as an application, which means that the model itself is constantly changing. Scaling Law (the law of scale) has experienced a de facto slowdown. “So I think next year should be a year when AI applications will flourish. ”

Although ChatGPT currently has only 250 million weekly active users two years after its launch, it has been deployed on billions of Apple devices since last month. According to reports, OpenAI will set up The next stage of growth goal is to reach 1 billion users per year in the next year.

At the same time. At that time, OpenAI was also actively seeking transformation, gradually transitioning from a non-profit business model to a for-profit business model. The number of employees increased five times to more than 2,000, maintaining a long-term research vision while focusing on increasing revenue-generating products to cover continuous Inflated costs

OpenAI spends over $5 billion a year, far from it.break even.

But CFO Sarah Friar raised more than $6 billion in investment in October at a $150 billion valuation, the highest valuation for a startup in Silicon Valley history, and will continue to raise "more More funds”.

OpenAI Chief Commercial Officer Giancarlo Lionetti recently stated that OpenAI’s goal this year is to achieve nearly $4 billion in revenue, with the vast majority of sales coming from individual consumers who pay for ChatGPT Plus. The company is looking to hit its ambitious growth goals of up to $100 billion in revenue by 2029.

Musk submitted a latest injunction to the court in order to prevent OpenAI from becoming fully profitable.

A new battle is about to begin.