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Societe Generale: The Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, causing short-term interest rates to fall, while tariffs and fiscal deficits will push up long-term interest rates.
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2024-11-30 01:02:01 2,053
Golden Finance reports that Societe Generale predicts that by the end of 2025, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will rise to 4.5%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield will fall to 3.5%. The reason is that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates, which will lower short-term interest rates, but will also increase demand for long-term Treasury bonds by stimulating the economy and increasing fiscal deficits, causing long-term yields to rise. In addition, Trump's tariff plan may push up inflation expectations, and the U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of government bonds in order to cope with the fiscal deficit, which will push up yields.
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