Author: Willy Woo Source: X, @woonomic Translation: Shan Ouba, Golden Finance

1. If the convertible debt holders do not convert into stocks before the bond matures, MSTR will have to sell Bitcoin to repay the debt holders.

2. The premise that this situation may occur is:

•MSTR’s stock price is Has not risen more than ~40% in 5-7 years (depending on the bond, see table below).

In other words, liquidation risk will only arise if: the correlation between MSTR stock price and Bitcoin breaks down. Or the price of Bitcoin itself falls seriously.

Competitive risk: If other companies copy MSTR's strategy , may dilute MSTR's premium (relative to net asset value, NAV).

SEC intervention risk: If the SEC intervenes in future Bitcoin purchases, it may reduce the NAV premium of MSTR.

Custody risk: MSTR’s Bitcoin assets are hosted in Fidelity and Coinbase, and there are certain custody security risks.

U.S. nationalization risk: The United States may take action to confiscate these Bitcoin assets.

Saylor Key Person Risk: The irreplaceability of MSTR founder Michael Saylor may lead to increased uncertainty for the company.

MSTR operational risks: various potential problems in the daily operations of MSTR itself.

Other risks that may be missed?

The convertible debt table is for reference only, and the data comes from Grok AI processing.There may be slight errors and only approximate patterns are shown. Details regarding MSTR’s Bitcoin custody arrangements have not yet been fully disclosed. For example, MSTR may adopt a multi-sig arrangement and retain co-signing rights. This is a smart way to manage your custody assets.

MSTU/MSTX = higher risk

These are MSTR-based paper margin pledges Note, liquidation levels are triggered almost immediately (and are not backed by real Bitcoin assets). Derivatives positions dilute the value of Bitcoin.

PS: Holding derivatives positions for a long period of time does not achieve 2x returns due to the impact of volatility effects (the cost of losses is higher than the returns).