Source: Shangyun Observation

As my country’s various strengths continue to increase, the United States’ various strategic deployments are targeted at every step. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary who will be appointed as Trump, commissioned the Bitcoin Research Institute This 46-page analysis report was output.

The theme of the report is "Reshaping the Global Economic Order: Bitcoin as a Tool of U.S. Statecraft under the Competition between the United States and China."

The report, written by Matthew Pines, head of strategy at the institute, mainly explores how the United States should adopt a series of strategic initiatives, including incorporating Bitcoin into strategic asset reserves, in the context of challenges to the global economic order. , to maintain its economic leadership, cope with geopolitical competition and reshape the global monetary order.

Read this report carefully. It uses a large amount of data and space to prove that the United States’ position in the global environment is gradually being replaced. At the same time, there is also some selective fabrication and propaganda of threats from .

The report deduces the rise of Bitcoin from the current US$100,000 to US$500,000, US$1 million and US$1.5 million per coin. The author explains here that the summary of the report is for your reference only. , does not make recommendations for investors. To obtain the original report, you can follow the official account and reply to the official account "Report 1" to download it. The following content is a summary of the report.

01 Changes in Sino-US power

Comparative changes in the defense industry

The current structural deficit in the United States has led to industrial shrinkage, economic inequality and financial distortions. Rising public debt burdens are now squeezing fiscal space and creating security risks (see Figure 1).

Figure 1 The United States spends more on interest payments than defense spending

The report proposes “Unless an energy and technological miracle occurs soon, the United States will increasingly rely on more explicitly aggressive strategies of Treasury issuance, repurchases, and debt monetization, including quantitative easing, financial repression, and geopolitical tensions. Yield curve control to provide funds for strategic goals”

Exaggerate the threat of Panda, emphasizing the revenue growth of its maritime, land, air, space, network, nuclear and other defense enterprises, and its advantages in the shipbuilding field. Current shipbuilding Its capabilities are already 230 times that of the United States. The production of many weapons in the United States, including the Tomahawk series, requires

continuous catching up in the technological field

I won’t give a detailed summary in this paragraph. Let’s just look at a picture.

China-U.S. economic relationship is unbalanced

Our country is leveraging other financial and technological systems—— Including the Digital Silk Road Initiative, Cross-border Interbank Payments System (CIPS), emergingBRICS trade and currency, and digital yuan—to counter the power of U.S. financial networks and weaken the U.S. dollar’s ​​capabilities.

At the same time, it is becoming increasingly clear that the U.S. Treasury market is structurally fragile and faces serious cybersecurity risks, putting the United States in an increasingly strategic position of vulnerability.

Generally speaking, the logic of the Sino-US competition is:

The United States: long-term reliance on debt to finance consumption, leading to fiscal deficits, industrial shrinkage and financial distortions, instability in the national debt market, and national defense The industrial base is affected.

: Relying on fixed asset investment and export-driven growth, its economic model has caused distortions in global capital flows, such as lowering the return on capital of other countries and prompting the United States to be overly dependent on debt consumption. Establish a new financial and digital currency system to challenge the status of the United States.

Therefore, in this zero-sum game, there is an urgent need to improve the U.S. financial system through innovative means - Bitcoin’s appearance

02 The strategic value of Bitcoin The characteristics and value of Bitcoin

Bitcoin has the characteristics of decentralization, fixed supply, portability, and programmability. It can be used as a value storage method in the digital era, similar to "digital gold."

It can act as a safe-haven asset in times of crisis (such as bank failure, financial sanctions), has low correlation with traditional assets, and can be used as a diversification tool for investment portfolios, suitable for institutions and for hedging geo-risk, capital controls and inflation.

The synergy between Bitcoin and USD stablecoins

Stablecoins are widely used in emerging markets for savings, remittances, cross-border payments and corporate cash management. Mainly anchored by the U.S. dollar, it indirectly strengthens the dominance of the U.S. dollar.

The combination of Bitcoin and stablecoins can form a hybrid digital currency ecosystem with both stability and value-added potential. Bitcoin serves as a value storage and risk hedging tool, and stablecoins provide The liquidity and accessibility required for daily financial operations will help the dollar network expand globally, especially in emerging markets to resist the expansion of digital financial influence.

The strategic significance of Bitcoin to the United States

If the United States establishes a strategic Bitcoin reserve, it will send a signal to the market to support Bitcoin, attract capital, and strengthen The financial system leads financial innovation, gains first-mover advantages, and ensures long-term fiscal sustainability.

Bitcoin can help the United States offset the fragility of the debt-driven financial system in global economic competition. By coordinating with gold, long-term bonds, tariffs, etc., it can strengthen the status of the U.S. dollar, in line with the U.S. Promote the interests of economic and technological strategies globally, such as using technological advantages such as artificial intelligence to bind allies and maintain global leadership.

03 Strategic deployment of the U.S. financial system

Building a new monetary system ("Bretton Woods System 2")

Using U.S. Treasury bonds and gold as reserve assets , through strategic swaps and other means (such as exchanging short-term treasury bonds, foreign exchange reserves or gold reserves for long-term bonds) Stabilize the U.S. dollar system, respond to the trend of de-dollarization, and re-anchor alliance relationships.

Promote economic growth, fiscal discipline and energy independence, achieve reindustrialization, adjust credit allocation, revitalize the industrial base, enhance supply chain resilience and reduce reliance on rival manufacturing industries, Restoring the balance between public and private money creation.

Strategic initiatives at the international level

Use financial instruments (such as long-term bonds, century bonds, dollar swap line adjustments, etc.) and trade (tariffs, trade Agreement, etc.) to build a geoeconomic alliance, distinguish allies and opponents, stabilize finances, and strengthen the central position of the United States in international monetary settlements.

Leveraging the United States’ leading advantages in artificial intelligence and emerging technologies, it provides opportunities for technological cooperation to motivate allies to align with the United States’ finance and trade, enhance alliance cohesion, and safeguard global A leadership position that limits the influence of competitors such as

Bitcoin-related strategic layout

The United States should establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and actively participate in the Bitcoin market. As the value of the Bitcoin market increases, it can Issue Bitcoin bonds, establish Bitcoin wealth funds and other financial instruments, diversify debt portfolios, promote investment in key industries, promote economic growth, and enhance financial strength. At the same time, use the characteristics and market influence of Bitcoin to expand the U.S. dollar network and consolidate the role of the U.S. dollar in A dominant position in the global monetary system to address global economic and geopolitical challenges.

04 Bitcoin Development Deduction

The report shows that the United States holds 1 million Bitcoins, and the price of Bitcoin has risen to US$500,000/coin, US$1 million/coin, and US$1.5 million. / pieces of scenarios for deduction and analysis.

Scenario A: Bitcoin market value reaches half of gold’s market value (about 10 trillion US dollars)

Main impact: The United States’ 1 million Bitcoin reserves are worth 5,000 Billion US dollars, significantly diversifying reserve risks. Bitcoin is regarded as an important supplement to central bank reserves. Sovereign and institutional investors may follow suit. However, large holdings in the United States may affect market prices and liquidity, and infrastructure construction and regulatory frameworks need to be strengthened. .

Secondary impact: Bitcoin is widely used in emerging markets and cross-border transactions, promoting the development of blockchain technology, strengthening the leadership of the United States in the field of financial innovation, and strengthening some allies It may follow suit, opponents may accelerate the development of alternatives, the Gulf may accelerate the reserve of Bitcoin, Bitcoin mining needs to balance economic and environmental interests, the United States may lead sustainable mining, and global mining competition intensifies.

Scenario B: Bitcoin market value is the same as gold (about 20 trillion US dollars)

Main impact: 1 million in the United States Bitcoin reserves are worth US$1 trillion, equivalent to gold reserves. Bitcoin has become a core global reserve asset, enhancing US fiscal resilience, but it also brings market dependence and regulatory challenges, and sudden market valueChanges may trigger financial fluctuations and require global central banks to adjust their strategies.

Secondary impact: technological innovation accelerates, Bitcoin-related financial products emerge, enhances its market position, changes global monetary power dynamics, the United States and its allies further integrate Bitcoin, others It may reduce its reliance on US dollar treasury bonds, and the increase in the value of Bitcoin in the United States can support public investment, but attention needs to be paid to the impact of its market fluctuations on the economy.

Scenario C: Bitcoin market value reaches half of the global sovereign debt market (approximately $30 trillion)

Main Impact : The United States’ 1 million Bitcoin reserves are worth US$1.5 trillion, exceeding gold reserves. Bitcoin may become the world’s major reserve asset, increasing the United States’ geopolitical influence, but it also brings systemic risks, such as the global impact of market or technical failures. The United States needs Ensure Bitcoin’s dominance.

Secondary impact: Bitcoin promotes a shift in global capital flows, which may impact economies that rely on fiat currencies. The United States needs to balance the global market, and the demand for technology investment increases. The United States uses Bitcoin Coin reserves can drive public investment, but trigger discussions on fiscal sustainability, Bitcoin mining Mines have become the focus of global energy and technology innovation. The United States should lead sustainable mining. International coordination of mining standards and energy efficiency has become key. Bitcoin bonds may become benchmark assets. The influence of Bitcoin wealth funds has expanded, but governance challenges need to be addressed. International finance Governance needs to be redefined to fit the Bitcoin role.

05 Summary

The United States is facing a critical period of change in the global monetary system. The actions of competitors (mainly us) threaten its fiscal stability and geopolitical status. In order to maintain its leadership position, the United States should promote the establishment of the "Bretton Woods" system2, integrate emerging assets such as Bitcoin, and implement a series of strategic measures externally, including revitalizing industry, achieving energy independence, strengthening technological innovation, and using finance and trade to consolidate Geo-economic alliances, etc., to reshape the global economic order and ensure its core position in a stable, cooperative and prosperous international system.