Author: Ben Strack, Blockworks; Compiled by: Five Baht, Golden Finance

On the first anniversary of the launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETF, James Seyffart of Bloomberg Intelligence told me that even the people behind these products , companies that were more optimistic about these products were also surprised by the response to these products.

Matt Horne, head of digital asset strategist at Fidelity Investments, confirmed this to me.

He mentioned that demand for Bitcoin from retail investors, advisors and institutions exceeded the company’s “optimistic” expectations. Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net inflows of $12.2 billion, second only to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ($37.7 billion).

But will the Bitcoin ETF market usher in a second downturn?

Horne explained that Fidelity has so far had “productive conversations” with all client groups regarding rising Bitcoin ETF usage in 2025.

He also said of the 16-year-old asset: “A longer history will allow us to continue to conduct portfolio research and better understand investor risk tolerance and Bitcoin role in the portfolio.”

Horne mentioned the “scope of adoption” for various customer types. In related news, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said on X Space on Friday — using a term from Geoffrey Moore’s “Crossing the Chasm” — that we are Move out of the early adopter stage and into the “early majority.”

Then, paraphrasing Winston Churchill to describe the adoption of Bitcoin ETFs, Horsley added that it feels like we are at “the end of the beginning.” He noted that exploring Bitcoin as an opportunity remains a "to-do list" for companies in the $30 trillion U.S. wealth management industry.

But as Zacks Investment Research's Neena Mishra told me on Friday, whether BTC ETF inflows in 2025 can match/exceed last year will likely depend on market performance.

Amid the aforementioned BTC price crash, the U.S. Bitcoin Fund experienced outflows of $569 million on Wednesday and $149 million on Friday (markets were closed on Thursday in honor of Jimmy Carter).

Casey raised the prospect of a possible U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve — which Seyffart said would drive ETF demand. But if Trump and a pro-crypto Congress fail to fulfill cryptocurrency-related obligationsCommitment, BTC may pull back (and outflow).

“Though as more traditional investors use these ETFs, they may become supportive of Bitcoin prices as they rebalance the downside by buying more,” Seyffart said. "Conversely, they may also become sellers in an uptrend as they rebalance to target allocation levels over the longer term."