Author: Nancy Lubale, CoinTelegraph; Compiled by: Five Baht, Golden Finance

Bitcoin has fallen 3% in the past 24 hours and 8% in the past week. However, market analysts say that this decline in BTC in January is not unusual. As a result, the bull market may resume, with Bitcoin’s price possibly peaking in mid-July 2025, according to one key technical indicator.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

After a sharp rise in 2024, Bitcoin remains in a four-week price consolidation range, finally ending in An all-time high of $108,268 was reached on December 17.

Bitcoin trader and analyst Dave the Wave said that Bitcoin prices have since fallen 14% from these record levels, but the 52-week simple moving average (SMA) shows that Bitcoin The currency still has room to rise.

While there have been multiple studies and data making various predictions over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has previously followed the levels depicted by the Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC), which is the level once the 52-week SMA hits the channel. In the middle band, the BTC price will reach its peak.

Dave the Wave said in a Jan. 13 X post that Bitcoin’s price “previously peaked when the one-year moving average hit the midpoint of the LGC channel.”

“This suggests #BTC will peak mid-year.”

BTC/USD Weekly Chart . Source: Dave The Wave

However, the chart above shows that historically prices have peaked days or months before or after the moving average crossed the midline of LGC. For example, in 2013, the price peaked on December 13, the same day the 52-week SMA signaled a top for BTC.

In 2017, BTC peaked on December 17, but the peak signal occurred a month later on January 15, 2018. And in the 2021 bull cycle, when Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 on November 10, the 52-week SMA signaled months earlier, on May 3.

Therefore, 2025The annual Bitcoin peak is likely to occur days to months before or after the one-year SMA crosses the LGC midline, which is expected to occur sometime in mid-July.

Dave the Wave notes that a less steep one-year moving average means "the market is maturing."

Meanwhile, cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital said that the continued consolidation of Bitcoin price is part of the “first price discovery adjustment” that occurs during the parabolic phase between the sixth and eighth weeks. These adjustments last two to four weeks.

“The current retracement has lasted for 4 weeks,” Rekt Capital said in an analysis of X on January 11, adding:

“So in terms of length, Look, history shows that this correction should be in its final stages.”

Analyst Axel Adler Jr. said that the current decline in Bitcoin is not as severe as the previous consolidation phase, when BTC was in July 2024. 29th to It fell more than 26% during Aug. 5.

Analysts said this relatively mild adjustment at the beginning of the year is common in the years after the halving.

Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt shared a chart that shows BTC may have formed a head and shoulders pattern (H&S) on the daily chart, with three possible outcomes.

For the first outcome, Brandt said BTC could confirm the pattern, complete the trend, and reach the H&S pattern’s target of below $77,000.

Two other outcomes are when price completes the pattern but fails to reach its target, resulting in a bear trap or "evolving into a larger pattern."

BTC/USD daily chart: possible H&S pattern. Source: Peter Brandt

In addition, Bitcoin analyst Munger spotted heavy buying on Binance between $85,000 and $92,000, and he wondered if the price of Bitcoin will fall to fill those buy orders, or rise to fill the $110,000 sell order.

"Be prepared for both scenarios, because I believe the $110,000 will come anyway."